Covid-19 – shaking everything to the core

Talking to #Jamesturgoose about COVID-19 impact on the economy, we found some similarities to other crisis in history. It is almost scary to compare and reflect how this crisis could change our lives for ever.

As the world grabbles with the first pandemic in a century, and most countries impose lockdowns on their citizens, attention is already turning to how this will change politics, our economy and wider society.

History would suggest that all great disruptions to normal life leave a legacy that can take years, if not decades to reverse. For instance, food rationing in the UK – introduced in 1940 – did not come to an end until 1954, a full 9 years after the end of World War II. Income tax was introduced as a temporary measure during one of the Napoleonic wars between England and France. In the First World War pub licensing laws were introduced to improve productivity in factories. We live with income tax and licensing laws to this day.  

It is now accepted that the experiences of World War I, including much greater interaction between different classes than would normally be the case, led to an unanswerable demand for universal suffrage. This was granted in 1918. Similarly the foundation stones of the modern welfare system – and in particular the NHS – stem from experiences and decisions taken during the Second World War.

It is clear that great traumatic events, such as wars, do fundamentally reshape societies. Plagues and public health crises do so as well – for instance the modern sewage system in London was built following a devastating cholera outbreak in the 1850s that claimed more than 10,000 Londoners lives.

It will be for historians to decide, but it is likely that this pandemic will be seen as yet another blow to globalisation and the “established international order”. Indeed it may be seen as a “book end” to another crisis that we experienced more than a decade ago. The financial crash of 2008 shook the international system to its core. The rise of populism and inward-looking political leaders looking to restrict trade and re-impose borders and controls has been striking ever since – as has a rise in public mistrust of people in positions of authority.

Perhaps therefore there is some hope in the current situation? Perhaps this pandemic will restore trust in our public institutions and experts who know what they are doing? It is also highly likely this crisis will accelerate changes that have been slowly developing over the last decade. This will be most obvious in how we work – it will be difficult for bosses to turn down remote working requests.

Perhaps more importantly for the environment, this crisis will affect business travel in the future – people will ask whether they really need to travel to this or that conference. People will also ask questions about the daily commute – who really wants to cram into overcrowded trains when its not essential? 

And there are already studies suggesting that air quality levels in big cities have been dramatically improved due to the shutdown. Indeed one study of air quality in China is suggesting that up tp 50,000 lives this year will be saved due to reductions in pollution.

Finally will this crisis affect the fundamental debates around technology, data and individual liberty? What if the only way out of the lockdown is to allow the Government to track your movements through mobile phone data (as is happening in South Korea and China). Will smart city techniology be re-deployed to maintain public health and track people’s movements? This might well be a price worth paying in the short term to get the economy back to a semblance of normality. But as we have seen most crises of this scale don’t just affect the short term. We all hope that a vaccine will be discovered to overcome Covid-19 in the next few months – but history shows us that even if we find a vaccine, the effects of Covid-19 will be with us for decades to come.