COVID-19 in select countries, and a focus on Canada

Uncontrolled, COVID-19 will spread exponentially. (When people talk about the number of cases doubling every <x> days, this is exponential growth.)

Interventions will result in the growth deviating from exponential. Many countries started imposing restrictions on travel and public gatherings in late march. How has this impacted the growth of COVID-19?

Using publicly available data, I've model the growth of COVID-19 in several countries. Countries that have imposed interventions have seen a deviation from exponential growth. The magnitude of the deviation varies, and it is too early to know the long-term effect. Countries that have not imposed interventions — Sweden, Japan — still have exponential growth.

Canada has seen deviation from exponential growth. But surprisingly, not all provinces have. Specifically, growth in Ontario is still exponential, and Manitoba has a growth rate faster than exponential!