COVID 19 Response - Spring 2021

As usual, there's a frustrating satellite delay in relevant "Business Events" information being released after significant Government updates on restrictions. The Working Safely During Coronavirus guidance (1), which has been informing how we work since early 2020, remains stubbornly focussed on the January lockdown.

I'm not knocking it, obviously, it's been my bible and is a crucial part of any COVID Secure events plan. It's just I'm fielding calls asking for advice and if we can crack on post 17 May / 21 June with some rather vital information still missing!

However, what we do have is the full text of the Government’s “COVID-19 Response – Spring 2021”2 which contains some stuff we already knew (see my previous posts for the graphic that sums up that detail (3) ) and some intriguing additional details that do hint towards the direction of travel.

Here are my key takeaways from a full reading:

General Approach

In my view, this is a sensible approach to opening up gradually – with a decent timeframe (5 weeks) between steps to allow for the impact of each change to be visible in the statistics for cases, hospitalisations and deaths. Then there’s an additional week for analysis before announcement on the next step.

The key phrase throughout the document is “no earlier than” and it stresses that each step is dependent on the previous one AND the four tests – so delays in introducing Step 2 will subsequently push back 3 and 4. None of these dates are set in stone and it sounds as if we will therefore get no more than 1 weeks notice of each step.

The four tests are the right ones – vaccination roll out, reduction in hospitalisations and deaths in the vaccinated, infection rates, variants of concern. 

Step 2 – no earlier than 12 April

113.  All newly open settings must abide by the social contact rules. The Government will continue to enforce restrictions and require businesses to demonstrate robust strategies for managing the risk of transmission and to ensure social distancing rules are followed. Local authorities and the police will continue to provide support and advice to newly reopened settings, enabling them to operate safely. Where businesses do not follow the rules, the appropriate enforcement action will be taken.

114.  This will be accompanied by mitigations including workforce testing and continued social distancing guidance.

Self explanatory really: any form of business opening or permitted gathering must still be within COVID secure guidance and there remains the associated fines for non-compliance.

Step 3 – No earlier than 17 May

120.  In Step 3, all but the most high-risk sectors will be able to reopen. In all sectors, COVID-Secure guidance will remain in place and premises must not cater for groups larger than the legal limits.

Same as above. Guidance is still going to be key but this is the step when we see the first big steps in reopening our industry with indoor hospitality back open, and, most excitingly:

120f. Some large events, including conferences, theatre and concert performances and sports events. Controlled indoor events of up to 1,000 people or 50% of a venue’s capacity, whichever is lower, will be permitted, as will outdoor events with a capacity of either 50% or 4,000 people, whichever is lower. The Government will also make a special provision for large, outdoor, seated venues where crowds can be safely distributed, allowing up to 10,000 people or 25% of total seated capacity, whichever is lower. In addition, pilots will run as part of the Events Research Programme to examine how such events can take place without the need for social distancing using other mitigations such as testing (see paragraphs 132 to 134).

So, first mention of the Events Research Programme which seems to be from where everything that’s important to us will come from.

Also, a tantalising mention of lifting social distancing. And in the same breath the idea of using testing for mitigation which, as we read on, is takes an increasing role in this strategy. 

International Travel

125.  … The Global Travel Taskforce will report on 12 April with recommendations aimed at facilitating a return to international travel as soon as possible while still managing the risk from imported cases and Variants of Concern. Following that, the Government will determine when international travel should resume, which will be no earlier than 17 May.

Again, but a Taskforce this time, a specialist group will be looking at advising on the return to International Travel. 12 April is a key date for their report so make a note in your diary.

136. Vaccinations could offer a route to that safe and sustainable return. Once more is known about the evidence of vaccines on transmission and their efficacy against new variants, the Government can look to introduce a system to allow vaccinated individuals to travel more freely internationally.

The controversial ‘Vaccine Passports’…… with the following caveat:

138. However, any such system will take time to implement. It will be heavily dependent on improved scientific understanding about the role vaccination plays in reducing transmission. Introducing such a system also needs to be fair and not unduly disadvantage people who have yet to be offered - or gain access to - a vaccine. That being the case, the Government does not expect this solution to be available quickly, and restrictions like those in place across the world are likely to continue for the near future.

Now THIS, I love the look of – a proper commitment to sorting out recovery and not just the reopening.

143.  In addition, the Global Travel Taskforce run last year committed the Government to publish a Tourism Recovery Plan in support of the sector. The Government intends to set out proposals in the spring, including plans for a world class marketing campaign to welcome back visitors to the UK as soon as it is safe to do so.

Step 4 – No earlier than 21st June

127. With appropriate mitigations in place, by Step 4, the Government aims to:

a.  Remove all legal limits on social contact, publishing accompanying guidance on how best to reduce the risk of transmission and protect ourselves and loved ones;

b.  Reopen the remaining closed settings, including nightclubs and enable large events, including theatre performances, above the Step 3 capacity restrictions, subject to the outcome of the scientific Events Research Programme (set out in paragraphs 132 to 134) and potentially using testing to reduce the risk of infection, subject to further evaluation; and

c.  Remove all limits on weddings and other life events, subject to the outcome of the scientific Events Research Programme.

128. As set out above, some measures may be required even after all adults have been offered a vaccine, because neither coverage nor effectiveness of the vaccine will be 100%. As a result, a significant proportion of the population will remain vulnerable to infection, some of whom will also be vulnerable to severe disease and death. This is reflected in the modelling of different scenarios for unlocking restrictions, which shows that the risk of further cases, hospitalisations and deaths remains after the adult population has been vaccinated, though modellers advise there is considerable uncertainty in these figures.

Even after Step 4, it appears the message is still ‘proceed with caution’ and the Government will need to wait for more statistics around cases, hospitalisation and death after the majority of the vaccinations have been given before they can make any concrete recommendations.

Events Research Programme

Here’s a bit more detail on the group that will be working towards opening up events. But as always, no real definition of ‘Events’ so this could be aimed at the Olypmics or a 20 person training course. The Visitor Economy guidance will hopefully clarify if they will introduce smaller meetings before the 1,000 people extravaganzas mentioned above.

133. Over the spring the Government will run a scientific Events Research Programme. This will include a series of pilots using enhanced testing approaches and other measures to run events with larger crowd sizes and reduced social distancing to evaluate the outcomes. The pilots will start in April.

134. The Government will bring the findings from across different sectors and different settings to determine a consistent approach to lifting restrictions on these events. Depending on the outcome of this work, the Government hopes to be able to lift restrictions on these events and sectors as part of Step 4.

Final Thoughts

Mass testing and the ERP are going to be the new industry buzz words as they will be underpinning everything we do for the next 6 months by the sounds of it. There’s also a recently extended government initiative to provide FREE testing for companies with over 50 employees who cannot work from home so that would be a very worthwhile conversation to have to see if that can be applied to film sets in the meantime (4). 

However, the main issue with all of this is unpredictability of it and the lack of notice regarding the dates. Although I applaud this approach from a Public Health and general strategy perspective, the impact it will have on the industry’s recovery isn’t great to say the least. 

Seeing as insurance companies currently won’t touch COVID related consequences with a barge pole, it’s a big risk at the moment to invest in a big event that could realistically be cancelled at the last minute by a delay in the steps in the Roadmap. 

In addition to that uncertainty, we also don’t have a realistic idea of what those events will need to look like which will make event design and venue sourcing a challenge. For now, I will be advising clients to plan for the current legislation and guidance and also the best practice that’s been established in recent months. 

The whole industry will be under intense scrutiny as we open up so we need to uphold the stringent standards and not get too carried away with a return to ‘normal’.

If anyone is involved, or knows anyone who is, in the Events Research Programme, I would love to hear more about it so please get in touch! 

1.     https://www.gov.uk/guidance/working-safely-during-coronavirus-covid-19/the-visitor-economy

2.    https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/covid-19-response-spring-2021

3.    https://www.dhirubhai.net/posts/sarah-threlfall_eventprofs-eventmanagement-eventindustry-activity-6769881080376901632-NgFW

4.    https://www.gov.uk/government/news/government-boost-to-rapid-workplace-testing