COVID-19: Provincial & Federal Briefings - Jan. 14, 2022
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Summary of developments for Friday, January 14, follows.
Federal Government
Federal Modelling Update
Dr. Theresa Tam and Dr. Howard Njoo, Canada’s Chief and Deputy Public Health Officers, provided a COVID-19 modelling update today.
To begin, Dr. Tam reminded everyone the modelling update underestimates true total case counts because of testing capacity limits and underreporting of new cases in the provinces. Despite this, the current spike in case counts exceeds all other spikes over the course of the pandemic.
Dr. Tam stated that, in the few weeks since the holidays, Omicron has spread faster and further than any other variant. An intense Omicron surge is expected in the coming weeks.
Hospitalization rates are expected to continue rising. Omicron is widespread across the country, unlike previous waves, which varied in their severity in different regions of the country. While the risk of hospitalization is low, severe illness does occur with Omicron, which can severely affect the health care system. Higher severe case counts, in combination with rising case counts among health care workers, is burdening the system. Most regions are expecting to see major increases in hospitalizations in the coming weeks.
Since the last federal update, the number of people being treated for COVID-19 in hospital has more than quadrupled. On average, over 6,779 people a day were treated in hospital for COVID-19 over the last 7 days. The number of people in critical care has double to an average of over 884 daily cases, with 82 deaths reported daily.
Incidence rates are higher in all age groups than at any other point in the pandemic. The most affected age group is those aged 20-39. The highest hospitalization rates are observed in older Canadians. Severe outcomes have been highest in adults aged 60 and older, particularly for those aged 80 and older. Cases in infants aged under 1 year are almost 7 times more likely to result in hospitalizations compared to cases in children aged 1-4 years. While hospitalizations have increased among children, outcomes are less severe overall including lower rates of intensive care admission.
Preliminary cases of outbreaks in long-term care facilities show that case severity remains lower than in previous waves, resulting in fewer instances of severe illness and death. However, rapid spread is affecting capacity due to outbreaks and staffing shortages in the health care system.
Full vaccination, including booster doses, is important for slowing infection rates. Fully vaccinated Canadians have a protection advantage, and are less likely to become severely ill. Over 6.5 million eligible Canadians are unvaccinated or partially vaccinated.?
Forecasts show that a major surge in case counts is expected. A large peak may occur in January, waning in February. With recent measures implemented, a lower peak of approximately 170,000 actual daily cases is expected. Without any of these measures, a peak of 300,000 actual daily cases was possible. Even with new measures, the Omicron wave could exceed anything we have seen to date. International data on new cases may provide some hope that infection rates in Canada will soon peak.?
Practical steps must be taken to protect the health care system. This includes getting vaccinated and receiving booster doses. Other measures including limiting personal contacts, wearing a well-fitting mask, and improving ventilation are also critical.
In response to questions from media, Dr. Tam clarified how the Public Health Agency of Canada (PHAC) is adjusting its modelling to account for limited testing capacity. Existing testing rates can be useful for tracking trends, despite presenting challenges for accurately understanding local case counts. Laboratory testing positivity rates, for example, are useful for understanding the state of overall trends. They currently sit at 28%.?Dr. Tam noted that tracking this indicator can assist in analysing the severity of community spread overall.
Asked about PHAC collecting geolocation data for modelling, Dr. Njoo stated that PHAC takes confidentiality and privacy seriously. Data is used to assess public health measures, including tracking the causes of rising case numbers, such as population movement. Dr. Njoo reiterated that data is not individualized or personal.
Following media questions about the estimated true case count in Canada, Dr. Tam stated that the difference between reported cases and true cases may vary in different jurisdictions across the country. She could not provide an estimate of true case counts as compared to reported cases at the federal level.
Dr. Tam stated that public health authorities have moved away from individual case management, as it is no longer possible to track every single case of Omicron. Individual tracking is not necessarily required for good national surveillance. Laboratory testing is now directed to those most at risk. Dr. Tam also noted that rapid antigen test results are not captured by provincial data, which exacerbates the underreporting of positive cases.
COVID-19 in Indigenous Communities
Yesterday, Minister of Indigenous Services Patty Hajdu provided an update on the federal response to COVID-19 in Indigenous communities, and outlined measures that Indigenous Services Canada (ISC) has taken to date. Dr. Tom Wong, Chief Medical Officer of Public Health, and Patrick Boucher, Senior Assistant Deputy Minister, were also present.
Minister Hajdu noted that that the Indigenous Community Support Fund is available to allow communities to prevent or respond to COVID-19 outbreaks. Every First Nations community is eligible.
The Minister stated that health systems across the country are strained by the Omicron variant. Vaccination and public health guidelines are important steps to addressing this challenge. She noted that remoteness or fragile infrastructure presents additional challenges when outbreaks occur.
Addressing the explosive outbreak at Bearskin Lake First Nation in Ontario, Minister Hajdu stated that cases are dropping and there have been no instances of severe illness or death to date. There are approximately 47 active cases in the community, and case counts appear to be trending downward. Minister Hajdu summarized federal measures taken by Indigenous Services Canada to support the community, including the provision of funding, PPE, supplies, food security, wages for workers, security personnel, and safe transportation for volunteers and service providers. Canadian Rangers are also onsite. Dozens of personnel are on the ground through the federal government’s response.
Dr. Wong stated that, as of January 12, there are 5,160 active cases of COVID-19 in First Nations communities, with 550 fatalities since the beginning of the pandemic. As of January 11, over 1 million doses have been administered in First Nations, Inuit and Territorial communities. Of those, over 84% of individuals aged 12 and over have received a second dose. Less than 20% of adults have received a booster dose. Over 35% of children aged 5-11 have received at least one dose. Dr. Wong reiterated that boosters are essential, and everyone should receive their vaccines and booster as soon as they are eligible.
Senior Assistant Deputy Minister Patrick Boucher added that Indigenous communities and organizations can continue to request needs-based funding from the Indigenous Community Support Fund or through other public health supports offered by ISC.
In response to media questions about the disappointment expressed by members of the Bearskin Lake First Nation regarding the federal government’s response to the COVID-19 outbreak, Minister Hajdu stated that she has encouraged leadership to contact her directly if there are gaps in support. Minister Hajdu stated that she is also frustrated that needs are not being met and expressed an ongoing commitment to support communities. She provided additional details of Canadian Armed Forces (CAF) involvement, stating that additional personnel are inbound to the community to confirm that testing is underway.
Asked about underreporting of Omicron in Manitoba First Nations, Dr. Wong stated that both Indigenous and non-Indigenous communities are challenged by limited testing capacity. He also noted that more people are diagnosing themselves using at-home rapid tests, which are not captured by official public health reporting. Dr. Wong emphasized that the severity of this wave should not be measured using case counts, but rather the rates of hospitalization and severe illness.
New Centre for Research on Pandemic Preparedness and Health Emergencies
Minister of Health Jean-Yves Duclos announced the creation of the Centre for Research on Pandemic Preparedness and Health Emergencies to grow Canada’s ability to research, address, and recover from current and future pandemics. The creation of the Research Centre includes an ongoing investment of $18.5 million per year. The Research Centre will be housed within the Canadian Institutes of Health Research (CIHR).
COVID-19 Data Trends:?
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In the past twenty-four hours, the Public Health Agency of Canada (PHAC) reported 31,367 new COVID-19 cases and an additional 108 deaths in Canada, bringing the cumulative total of cases to 2,688,751 and a total of 31,190 deaths. There are currently 386,033 active COVID-19 cases in Canada.
Vaccination Data Trends:
PHAC has not yet published this week’s vaccination data update.
Ontario
Today, some Ontario school boards have warned that in-person classes for public elementary and secondary schools may be cancelled with little notice. Classes are set to resume in-person on Monday, January 17. According to Global News , Toronto District School board told parents that last minute class cancellations may happen even though efforts have been made to ensure staffing levels. Rainbow District also said classes may be cancelled on Monday if there is not enough staff. In addition, Ottawa-Carleton District School Board will me “every effort” to keep classes open, but may change to remote learning if schools cannot operate safely.
The province reported 10,964 new cases today. There are 3,814 Ontarians being treated for COVID-19 in general hospital wards, with 527 individuals in the ICU, of which 288 patients are on a ventilator.
To date, 29,180,320 doses have been administered in Ontario. Currently, 91.3% of the population aged 12 or older has received at least one dose of a COVID-19 vaccine and 88.6% have received both vaccine doses. In terms of the total eligible population aged 5 or older, 82.2% have received one dose and 88% have received both doses. The province reported that 44.3% of Ontarians aged 18 or older have received a booster dose.
Quebec
There were no COVID-19 briefings in the province today.
Santé Québec reported 7,382 new cases and 68 virus-related deaths in the last 24 hours. There was a net daily increase of 91 hospitalizations, bringing the total number of people being treated in hospital with the virus to 3,085. Three more patients were admitted to the intensive care unit in the last 24 hours, bringing the total to 275.
More than 16.4?million doses have been given to Quebecers when including those vaccinated outside of the province. Santé Québec’s dashboard shows that 90% of the total eligible people aged 5 years and older have received their first vaccine dose,?82% their second dose, and 29% of the total eligible people aged 12 years and older have received their third vaccine dose.
Alberta
Public health officials provided a COVID-19 update in a press conference yesterday . Dr. Deena Hinshaw, Alberta’s chief medical officer of health, announced a change to the way that Alberta Health Services will be reporting on COVID-19 outbreaks in the future. Starting tomorrow, Alberta Health Services will only provided COVID-19 outbreak updates for high risk settings only. The change comes as a result of strained outbreak investigation resources in the province meaning that Alberta Health Services must prioritize high risk settings.
Dr. Hinshaw also announced that after January 17th, 2022, Albertans will no longer be able to obtain free print outs of their COVID-19 vaccine record from government registry agents. Instead, Albertans will have to phone Health Link at 811 to arrange to have their COVID-19 vaccine record mailed to them.?
Dr. Hinshaw also stated that there have been delays in the province receiving COVID-19 rapid rest kits. Dr. Hinshaw indicated that the delay is particularly problematic given the recent restrictions to COVID-19 PCR testing eligibility. She stressed that those who are not eligible to receive a PCR test yet have COVID-19 symptoms, should use the Alberta Health Services online self-assessment tools at?ahs.ca/covidselfcare .
Alberta Health Services provided an update on COVID-19 statistics in the province. There are 62,733 active COVID-19 cases. The provincial positivity rate is 39.28% Currently, 786 individuals are being treated for COVID-19 in hospital, 79 of whom are in intensive care. To date, 7,981,543 doses of the COVID-19 vaccine have been administered in the province. This means that 89.7% of eligible people 12 years and older have now received at least one dose of the COVID-19 vaccine, 85.7% have received their second dose, and 27.6 % have received their third dose.
British Columbia
In a bulletin released yesterday , British Columbia health officials indicated that pregnant British Columbians can now book a COVID-19 booster vaccine if it has been at least eight weeks since the received their second vaccine dose. The bulletin indicated that it is generally recommended that people wait at least 6 months from the date they received their second dose before they receive a third dose, however, pregnant women should get their booster during pregnancy to ensure optimal protection for them and their baby.
British Columbia’s Health Services provided updates on COVID-19 statistics in the province. The most recent data shows that there were 2,554 new cases and 6 new COVID-19 related deaths in the past 24 hours. 534 individuals are in hospital and 102 individuals are in intensive care. There are 36,641 active cases of COVID-19 in the province.
To date, a cumulative 9,897,611 doses of the COVID-19 vaccine have been administered in the province, 4,150,713 of which are second doses. 92.6% of eligible people 12 years and older have now received their first dose of the COVID-19 vaccine, 89.5% have received their second dose, and 29.2% have received their third dose.
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