COVID-19 Post Mortem Lessons-Planning for Uncertainty

The activity of planning for one’s personal, professional, or another aspect of life is considered a valuable, but often neglected discipline in turbulent times.  In the U.S. Army, after a significant battle or confrontation occurs, a routine process called After Action Review takes place to plan for improved outcomes and continuous improvement. At business schools, planning is a routine academic exercise and as the Harvard Business School describes, scenarios planning as, “are plausible alternative hypotheses about how the world might unfold, specifically designed to highlight risks and opportunities facing the organization. Scenarios challenge…. Thinking…… by a deeper appreciation of the many factors that could shape the future.”

Changing Personal Lives

Our personal, family, friendships, and other connections are precarious and unusual. Spending more time with our core family and friends has been a blessing and a curse. Many have experienced deeper and more meaningful relationships. Others, more labored or tense conditions may exist.  For some, it may be an indication that change or a new direction is needed.

Personal freedom is less taken for granted. Besides mandatory face masks and social distancing, large gatherings, family get-togethers, and culture or recreational visits are discouraged, restricted, or on hold. The ability to just get up and go somewhere, anywhere, now requires planning and projected estimates of time, expenses, and potential inconvenience. Even essential visits are subject to change at the whim of the current 14-day virus trends. 

In the public and business sectors, the inconvenience extends to new restrictions of gated or restricted entry, a limited number of people at any given time, floor signs that remind all of the social distancing resulting in longer wait times before exit. Returning back to your vehicle to retrieve your face mask is a reminder of how we used to do it when reusable shopping bags would save us a dime. Now, controls are in place and we’re not allowed entry if we don’t wear a face mask. Will mandatory temperature readings, sensor readings, or other forms of health monitoring take place if the virus continues to flourish? 

Medical appointments by telephone and videoconferencing have grown, particularly for the elderly and other patients with limited mobility. Projections are the popularity and demand from patients will make it difficult for health insurance providers to recede this service even after the pandemic crisis has receded. How will these impact insurance premiums, out of pocket costs, and other considerations ahead? 

With more domestic time, the adoption of hobbies and leisure activities has mushroomed. Planting gardens, preparing new recipes, engaged reading, or learning a musical instrument,  whether a hobby, project, or for side income renews interest in something we always wanted to learn or return to. Life with less travel and commute time leaves an extended amount of home leisure discoveries available. 

While we’re nowhere near any resolution of this pandemic story, we have gained insight, learned, and better understand the virus and can use planning models to better adjust and adapt to what appears will be a COVID-19 summer and beyond.

Work 

We can plan for office hours being anything but. One of the greatest innovation trials, Work From Home, is now endorsed by global business.  Not only will savings in office costs be one plus, other less obvious benefits including worker satisfaction, flexible hours and on-demand access have emerged. While the office is not closed for good, employees can plan to have more flexibility on days, times, and perhaps even quarterly periods when a personal presence is not required. 

Commute time for those using public transportation, particularly in larger urban areas will be a mixed bag. No more face to face squeezed contact on buses, trains and even air travel will be a welcome relief. But at the cost of long waits, more time spent commuting, less flexibility, and higher cost, it might not be an equalizer. 

COVID-19 has made us rethink how we work. The Work From Home shift will create an acceleration of new software and other digital programs to ensure the employer’s needs are being met. While Zoom and other social platforms are useful for virtual meetups, they are not enough for sustained and involved human connections failing to capture the human nuances and agencies required to maintain and build levels of a workplace setting. Workers at all levels will be expected to be agile and flexible in learning upgraded software iterations and new programs, WFH protocol and rituals, and other employer accommodations. Even the most hesitant users of technology and skill development will have to upgrade or be put aside. 

Disruption will be the New Normal 

So if there is one truth to any of this, you should be planning in your life with having any number of unexpected disruptions in the latter half of 2020 and beyond. While the planning process can’t provide the answers it can provide guidance in challenging all of us to look ahead at what exists now and plan for future scenarios.

Not too many months ago ordering on-line meant two or three-day delivery service. Now even hospitals, medical services, and other establishments providing critical services no longer have assurances, if and when products will be delivered. Global supply chains are less study. In less than a month in the prior year, families were engaged in “Back to School” rituals. Now parents are invited to provide feedback on how safe students will be in an institutional setting and their mindset on staggered school days and distance learning. Colleges and universities as well are hesitating on how to resume instruction, full time, remote, or a combination.

How much longer will we be required to wear face masks? Will WFH continue to be permanent or will we return to the office and other work settings as we once knew it? Can we expect large gatherings in concerts and events or will there be some kind of modification?  Planning is an important element for our personal and professional lives. But as President Eisenhower is quoted,  “In preparing for battle I have always found that plans are useless, but planning is indispensable.”  Another way of saying it’s the plan as much as it’s the ability to change the plan as needed is the value creation. Months ahead will continue as months past as we muddle our way along with this event. Disruption is the new normal. Accept uncertainty in the months ahead and plan for it.