COVID-19 Pandemic: Our Life's "Bill Gate"
Rafka Abou Salem
From lab bench to Data & AI champion: Empowering entrepreneurs with Data & AI strategies
Almost two years ago, the Johns Hopkins Center for Health Security released a publication to shed light on the characteristics of microorganisms that represent a global catastrophic biological risk (GCBR).
"These traits include efficient human-to-human transmissibility, an appreciable case fatality rate, the absence of an effective or widely available medical countermeasure, an immunologically na?ve population, virulence factors enabling immune system evasion, and respiratory mode of spread. Additionally, the ability to transmit during incubation periods and/or the occurrence of mild illnesses would further augment spread."
According to the paper, respiratory-borne RNA viruses are the most likely to cause pandemic outbreaks and tragic consequences to humans. They are highly contagious, yet the fatality rate is considerably low but significant.
Fast forward to 2020, and we now have the novel coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic that perfectly matches the findings. The World Health Organization (WHO) has recently warned that "this virus may never go away".
Several theories were proposed regarding the origin of the novel coronavirus. Some claim it's transmitted naturally from animals to humans. Some say it's genetically engineered and released accidentally. Others suggest that the virus may have leaked out of the laboratory in China while conducting the study. These are all scenarios with no backed up data to rule out which one is right.
COVID-19 has brought confusion to health organizations, doctors, and scientists. Most of the cases detected present mild symptoms. Many are asymptomatic, meaning that no symptoms show but can act as vectors for transmission. Hence, the number of cases announced is underestimated and may not be accurate since not all cases are reported and correctly diagnosed (i.e. human error). Yet there's a small percentage that requires critical care. The coronavirus itself is not the "real killer" since it needs its host (human) to keep replicating; it's their body's immune system that overreacts and damages vital organs (i.e. cytokine storm). This group has received the highest medical and media attention.
Also, major discrepancies are evident in the fatality rates based on demographics. For example, the UK has a fatality rate that is almost 14%, while in the Gulf it did not exceed 1%. It's best when measures taken are customized at a national level based on near real-time information, and compared on a global level.
Until today, no vaccines exist for respiratory-borne RNA viruses (with the exception of Influenza). The only medical countermeasure we have so far is to treat and alleviate the symptoms associated. There has been a call to have a universal vaccine against such a class of viruses that present the highest GCBR to prevent future outbreaks. In 2015, a Nature paper mentioned that there's a potential risk for the re-emergence of SARS-like viruses circulating the Chinese bat populations based on studying their metagenomic data. The paper claims that "both monoclonal antibody and vaccine approaches failed to neutralize and protect from infection with CoVs using the novel spike protein". This raises an important question: will there be a successful vaccine, or shall we accept herd immunity and treatments for alleviating the symptoms? And assuming the vaccine succeeds, for how long will the immunity against COVID-19 last? For now, it's necessary to implement surveillance programs and improve diagnostic tools and therapeutic measures to fight against emerging or re-emerging viruses.
Even though the World Health Organization recommended social distancing, wearing masks and washing hands as preventative measures, IATA Airlines has recently proposed that it "does not support mandating social distancing measures that would leave ‘middle seats’ empty". It claims that there's a "low risk" of transmission onboard. It only recommended wearing face masks as a precaution. If that's true, then social distancing is useless everywhere. Literally.
Lockdown has been presented as a strict countermeasure against COVID-19 to slow down the spread, reduce the burden on the healthcare systems, and prepare a plan. Most nations have been under lockdown for more than two months and some are still ongoing to avoid the detrimental consequences the virus will bring about. IT ALREADY DID! A catastrophe in just a few months only. Let's face it. A virus cannot be eliminated in a few months or even a year; it takes around 3 to 4 years or may never go away. And vaccines need at least a year before they are released into the market. Plus, if the virus takes up to 14 days to show symptoms, then strict lockdowns may only be effective up to a month; beyond that, it's doubted to be a great measure. Isn't it? This is evident in European countries like Italy, France, and Spain; with strict measures, cases still appeared. Not so surprising. And the ease of lockdown is just a calculated risk to avoid the appearance of a second wave. Not forgetting to mention, the economy became detrimental amid supply chain disruption as a consequence of the lockdown. The pandemic has shifted the focus from the use of historical data to the importance of having near real-time data analytics to manage their supply according to demand.
Locking down people is the biggest MISTAKE ever committed in the name of humanity. It has physiological, psychological, and economic downturns. All three factors are intertwined. Health AND Economy are both of great importance and vital for a sustainable world that we're living in. And politics does have its influence and power on both.
Lately, eyes have been wide-opened, and people are protesting and raising their voice against Bill Gates and his monopolistic plan on vaccines. He's been funding projects related to vaccinations and climate change. He even partnered with Johns Hopkins Center for Health Security that hosted Event 201 back in August 2019... "a global pandemic exercise". It's said that he might be part of the plan behind the virus spread and lockdown so he can sell those vaccines, manage the population number, and reduce global warming. Gates said that the world won't be back to normal until the vaccine becomes available. There is no clear explanation for why he left Microsoft to become a philanthropist, and why until today with all the scientific advancements we don't have "antiviral agents" (except for Influenza) to limit and contain viral outbreaks.
Shockingly, Bill Gates gave a TED Talk 5 years ago titled "The next outbreak? We're not ready". What a coincidence! He says that "the greatest risk of global catastrophe" will be "a highly infectious virus rather than a war", and the reason is that we do not invest enough to stop epidemics. He uses Ebola as a case scenario to show the missing puzzle pieces which he believes is a global failure; among them: the lack of a system (surveillance & data), and the treatment that was never done yet which is pulling out blood plasma of survivors as a treatment for infected individuals. He says the failure to prepare will bring about far worse and devastating outbreaks.
"So the next time we might not be lucky where you can have a virus where people feel well enough while they're infectious that they get on the plane or they go to a market. The source of the virus could be a natural epidemic like Ebola or it could be bioterrorism", Gates said.
He also uses the Spanish Flu to raise concerns that things can become much worse leading to a high mortality rate and economic loss. He proposed the use of science and technology as a solution such as the use of smartphones to exchange data with the public, satellite maps to track people's movement, and advanced biology to make drugs and vaccines. Gates mentions that "these tools need to be put into an overall global health system and we need preparedness". And the best preparedness is "what we do for war": build strong health systems in poor countries, create a medical corps, pair medical and military for logistics purposes, run germ games (simulations) to see where the gaps are, and step up research & development for vaccines and diagnostics. He's very sure, yet not certain of, that the budget for such a system is quite modest compared to the actual harm that will lead to global economic loss beyond USD $3 trillion and millions of deaths.
"[Ebola] can serve as an early warning, a wake-up call, to get ready", said Bill Gates.
And how about the paper released by The Rockefeller Foundation and Global Business Network back in 2010? The paper, "Scenarios for the Future of Technology and International Development", speaks of a Lock Step scenario where there's a pandemic and people are quarantined and restricted from travel. The scenario also praises the Chinese government quarantine imposition and border sealing, saving the lives of millions of people. Lockdowns, quarantines, and curfews are ways to control the world and create a new order.
Is this some sort of sorcery or a hidden political agenda?!!
Below is a video that dates back to 2014 where Harry Vox, an investigative journalist, discusses the document.
This virus proved that the world is unprepared.
"Preparedness is hampered by the lack of continued political will at all levels. Although national leaders respond to health crises when fear and panic grow strong enough, most countries do not devote the consistent energy and resources needed to keep outbreaks from escalating into disasters." ~ World Health Organization
In summary, data is not the new oil or currency; it has always been there whether on papers or digitized. Regardless of the conspiracy theories, NOW is about the battle of who will win with data. It's the use versus the abuse of data that will rule out in this battle. Something for sure that a data-driven individual, company, or even a nation who has access to data and transforms them into insights (without sacrificing privacy and using it for apocalyptic purposes), has a very high chance of claiming the throne and moving ahead in the game. What matters the most is having a real-time, transparent, single source of truth data. It’s no longer about the technology itself; it’s your information capabilities that will make you a GAMECHANGER. The COVID-19 pandemic made us pay the price with our health and pockets... a heavy "bill" for our lack of awareness and preparedness. From this day on, the world will never be the same.
As Abraham Lincoln once said, "I am a firm believer in the people. If given the truth, they can be depended upon to meet any national crisis. The great point is to bring them the real facts".
Biochemist
4 年Nour Abboud