COVID-19 Pandemic: Catalyst Creating Economic Havoc in Global Recession
By Darrell W. Wood
The coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic has a direct correlation to the economic recession impacting local and global businesses in 2020-2022. A root-cause analysis reveals multiple factors:
The COVID-19 catalyst creates a ripple effect throughout the world as enterprises--large and small--feel the seismic effects of these major upheavals.
Such a devastating impact on vital sectors of healthcare and the economy eviscerates the very heart of life--local, national and global.
Forces that normally drive the global economy are now being throttled back or completely shut down. Thus, the coronavirus constitutes a contributory cause--among other related factors fueled by rising inflation--that represents a constellation of dynamics deepening the worldwide recession.
Business analytics show that the law of supply and demand in micro- and macroeconomics is operative and creating a new nexus of business under the "new normal."
In traditional supply chain and marketing channel designs--from producers to buyers-- intermediaries include brokers/agents, distributors/wholesalers, and retailers/dealers. Upstream sourcing of raw materials, components, and parts feed into the supply chain providing vital logistical support for the original equipment manufacturer (OEM). Following assembly, finished products flow downstream through marketing and distribution channels for delivery to retailers, dealers, and consumers.
COVID-19 along with other market forces have changed the calculus of how businesses operate to achieve goals. Traditionally, prior to the pandemic, a supply chain consisted of individuals and organizations that perform logistical activities required to create/source and deliver a product or service to consumers and users. Similarly, a marketing channel involved the process of making a product or service available for consumption or use by consumers or industrial users.
Since the worldwide spread of COVID-19, many intermediaries have been lost due to disintermediation. Such a loss in logistical linkage can occur
Because intermediaries partner with companies in implementing communications and pricing strategies of sales and promotion plans, when the linkage is lost, it often creates chaos and forces companies to consider alternative strategies and operations to achieve objectives. When businesses must consider direct distribution or some other marketing/promotion/service function previously carried out by an intermediary, the following truism holds:
"You can eliminate intermediaries but not their functions."
Disruptions in supply chains and marketing channels have radically changed the modus operandi of many organizations. TechTarget's George Lawton says the COVID-19 outbreak in China slows the global supply chain. Starting in China, where a large percentage of major enterprises have factories, one of the first effects of the coronavirus was the shutdown of Chinese manufacturing factories. While some are reopening, the impacts of that slowdown in Chinese production are causing a domino effect throughout the global supply chain.
Exacerbating the economic disruptions is the de facto trade war between the U.S. and China, punctuated by posturing on both sides by the imposing of tariffs and the threat of retaliatory actions (such as pricing) in supply chains and marketing channels. Even more serious are the would-be warmongers, aka "hawks" on both sides--engaging in bellicose strategems tantamount to feigned "shooting over the bow" military tactics.
As the world's two largest economies, Uncle Sam continues to spar with the Red Giant in a cold war of sabre-rattling--while both titans need each other as trade partners practicing reciprocity.
However, the ongoing U.S. trade deficit imbalance spurs games of one-upmanship marked by mutual mistrust and trade tensions. The World Trade Organization (WTO) sets policies and guidelines for global trade and tariffs, and seeks to referee and enforce regulations. China, however, remains a renegade regime--with its companies committing infractions of global fair trade practices. Some of these illegal activities include:
Despite these ethical breaches, China continues to maintain its dominance as the world's chief supplier and source of raw materials and finished goods in the global supply chain. As a WTO member with most favored nation (MFN) status, China is taking its place, among other signatories, as an economic superpower--playing an increasingly visible role as a major player on the world stage. In order to gain respect among the family of nations, China should cease and desist its egregious human rights violations against religious and ethnic minorities (e.g., Christians, Muslim Uyghurs in Xinjiang, Tibetan Buddhists, pro-democracy protesters in Hong Kong, and others). Otherwise, it will remain relegated to the BRICS category of emerging, developing countries (Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa). Even so, with China's economic power, it is making inroads into these developing countries with its Belt and Bridge initiative to pour billions into infrastructures to build actual bridges and relational bridges of influence to increase its visibility and dominance globally.
Another nemesis of Sino-American relations is a strong sense of nationalism (ethnocentrism) and protectionism (held by China and the U.S.) that often impede productive diplomatic and trade negotiations. China is sensitive to the world's perception of its repressive policies and crackdowns (e.g., 1989 Tiananmen Square student protests and current hegemonic threats in the South China Sea toward Taiwan and Hong Kong); hopefully, it will have the wisdom and political will to make major changes to gain greater global credibility and acceptance. In the meantime, unilateralism prevails with business as usual.
Coincidentally, such unilateralism and isolationism are being advocated by certain partisan political factions in the United States as well. For the sake of fairness, it must be noted that the U.S. has lost much of its moral leadership in the world because of its own inconsistent record of civil rights toward minorities. Much progress has been made, but a great gap still exists between principle and practice. Nonetheless, the U.S. and other democracies must continue to bring pressure to bear on China for accountability in the human rights realm. The international court of public opinion would hold all countries accountable for systemic racism, "ethnic cleansing," and other human rights violations leading to genocide, social injustice, and economic inequity.
The Red Giant, however, remains a heavyweight in the global economic arena.
The fallacy and folly of single-sourcing supply chain strategies reveal that enterprises have relied too heavily on Chinese suppliers. Other Asian sources, such as South Korea, have also been hit hard with the COVID-19 outbreak, and are often unable to meet supply chain requirements. This is particularly true for Tier 1 suppliers such as Circle Corp., in Busan (formerly Pusan), which provides A/C mufflers and components for the global auto industry.
In particular, organizations that fail to diversify, and rely on manufacturing operations or parts, raw materials, and finished goods suppliers from primarily one country or region put themselves at risk.
A major impact of disrupted supply chains and marketing channels is the plummeting price of petroleum and volatility in the commodity futures market. With national, state, and local guidelines for people to stay at home, and businesses closing, the demand for gasoline and other petroleum products (e.g., jet fuel) has dropped dramatically. This means people are not travelling as much--on the road or in the air (passenger air traffic is down 95% from 2019) and oil prices have plunged precipitously--from a high of $60 per barrel to a low of -$37 p/b April 20, 2020 on the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX).
The situation worsened with OPEC leader Saudi Arabia and Russia cutting oil production to eliminate market competition--putting the squeeze on U.S. reserves and storage capacity due to oversupply of past production. This means curtailing U.S. production quotas as well due to the surplus and recurring lower demand. All this contributes to the economic recession because independent producers and ancillary service providers cannot profitably stay in business when oil prices are less than $30 per barrel.
A corollary to this crisis is the negative hit on the auto industry. With lower demand, layoffs, and other cutbacks, projections for U.S. auto sales to be off by 50% will likely occur the last three quarters of 2020. Adding to the lower vehicle production output is the President's invoking of the Defense Production Act (DPA) to mandate the making of ventilators and personal protective equipment (PPE) by automakers in response to the escalating coronavirus crisis. Referring to the need to expand DPA, an article published in the New England Journal of Medicine stated that experts urged the government to force suppliers to provide raw materials for manufacturers, saying, "simply demanding more ventilators isn't enough," without the raw supplies to make them.
"If you can't get the parts, you can't make anything."
Automakers know all too well the impact of this fact with the contraction of global supply chains for auto parts and components, especially microchips.
Adverse recession-related economic effects on the auto industry in Japan and Korea have been mitigated by the Asian cultural focus on the collective--groups rather than individuals. In Japan, the keiretsu is a business association--a conglomeration of businesses linked together by cross-shareholdings to form an efficient and effective corporate structure. The Korean counterpart to keiretsu is chaebol, generally controlled by their founding families, while keiretsu businesses are run by professional managers. Keiretsu arose out of prewar zaibatsu, family-owned conglomerate businesses similar to the Korean chaebol. China's state-owned enterprises (SOEs) have thrived under a modified chaebol business model that receives favored status with government grants and loans at low or no interest. Thus, Asian companies--through subsidies and other support--are able to survive amid the painful contractions of the coronavirus-wracked global economy.
Another domain being drastically affected by the pandemic is sports. Athletics at all levels--high school, collegiate, and professional--are feeling the financial crunch of empty stadiums, arenas, and other venues. And the 2020 Tokyo Summer Olympics have been rescheduled for 2021. Only Japanese spectators will be allowed to attend the various sports venues.
It remains to be seen how soon professional sports in the NFL, NBA, MLB, PGA, WTA, NHL, and FIFA return to normal schedules and competition. A secondary fallout is that minor sports, often subsidized or supported by major sports franchises and television coverage and other media outlets contracts, will also suffer.
In addition to sports being a major player in the entertainment industry, other sectors of the entertainment sphere include movies, music, theme parks, and cruise lines. All these businesses are being buffeted by the winds of change from the global recession. In fact, some are so seriously impacted, they face possible bankruptcy, such as Norwegian Cruise Lines. Competitors Royal Caribbean, Carnival, and Disney are also careening from the pandemic's tsunami. And entertainment giant Disney likely will forego paying dividends the first half of 2020.
Disney, because of the fallout from the coronavirus in venues with crowds in close quarters (such as Disney cruise ships, movie theaters, music concerts, and theme parks) may have to diversify further to avoid more financial hemorrhaging. Some say Disney needs a major acquisition such as video games--perhaps Electronic Arts (EA) or Activision--although a major focus on modern warfare and wanton violence may be considered incompatible with Disney's family-oriented corporate image. Disney and other entertainment enterprises see their stock value wavering in the world's stock exchanges.
The New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) reported that the U.S. economy (GDP) shrunk 4.8% in the first quarter of 2020--the highest decline since the 2008 recession. Dire projections point to a 6.5% economic downturn of the GDP by the end of the year.
Fluctuating volatility in the stock market tracks the worst and the best stock performance in recent history. (The DOW is down 20% from its all-time high.) At the same time, DJI shows amazing resilience and recurrent surges trace a bullish trend. Such a disconnect between Wall Street and Main Street reveals two disparate economic realities. Ironically, the ranks of top investors continue to profit, despite the recession, because the NYSE does not realistically reflect the world of the average wage-earner. Big business and the wealthy can weather the storm, whereas blue collar workers and others in the middle class--representing small businesses--bear the disproportionate brunt of a recession.
But marginalized minorities and other poor with lower incomes at the poverty level suffer the most--especially during an economic downturn.
Since consumer spending accounts for 75% of the U.S. Gross Domestic Product (GDP), the draconian measures to shut down retail outlets and small businesses (some permanently: for example, more than 110,000 restaurants closed in 2020) creates a virtual downward spiral of the U.S. economy. According to PIMCO, economists expect a U-shaped (not V-shaped) recovery from the coronavirus recession. Baseline projections for such a gradual recovery tracks the following trajectory for 2020:
The paradox of the pandemic's impact is that the U.S., the leading global economy, is being truncated and forced into financial retrenchment. As part of the Triad--along with Western Europe and Japan--these geocentric superpowers hold 75% of the world's wealth. Yet the U.S. government--in seeking to bridge the gap--passed the initial CARES Act the first quarter of 2020. According to John N. Davis of Edward Jones, this represents the largest economic stimulus package in U.S. history--more than $3 trillion was authorized to fight COVID-19 and its effects on the economy. This includes recovery payments to Americans, support for the medical industry, relief for impacted businesses, grants to colleges and universities for student financial aid and other losses, and loan programs for small business owners. Further financial payments to strengthen the economy were planned earlier but failed to materialize due to impasse between Congress and the White House. It was hoped that a compromise stimulus package could be passed and funds distributed before the November 3 election; however, as of January 2021 only some second stimulus checks had been issued with a January 15 cutoff date. Such needed financial subsidies are designed to help individuals as well as small businesses suffering from the economic effects of the coronavirus pandemic.
The U.S. has roughly 6 million small businesses--employing about half of all American workers.
Current repercussions in the curtailed economy cause enterprises to shift strategies and tactics. Companies, citing the impact of the virus on business, have cut jobs, then hired contractors or nonunion employees to fill the void. According to Jessica Silver-Greenberg of the New York Times, major companies are using the pandemic as cover to quash unions and weed out the troublesome employees who try to organize them.
On a more positive note, according to TechTarget, the COVID-19 pandemic is causing some IT organizations to delay or push up their 2020 enterprise data storage purchases, while others continue with business as usual in the IT arena. And some are expediting purchases after vendors warned them about potential disruption to the enterprise storage supply chain. Due to the pandemic's impact, according to Qlik's Dan Sommer, the priorities of organizations have changed, and the evolution of expected business intelligence (BI) trends has been temporarily delayed
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The 2020 recession due to the coronavirus adversely impacts every industry and market around the world.
The global auto industry, noted for its pursuit of quality assurance (QA) promoted by the disciples of management mogul Deming--especially in Japan--now faces new challenges in meeting stringent best practices. Proponents of lean manufacturing (lean production), and the Toyota Production System (TPS) with its emphasis on just-in-time (JIT) inventories and kaizen (continuous improvement), strain to meet the precise requirements of their standard operating procedures. Of course, the effectiveness of these and other QA systems such as Six Sigma (a set of tools and techniques for process improvement) depends on the quality of trained personnel and steady employment.
Conversely, unemployment acts as a barometer or key indicator of the severity of the economic downturn. In the first quarter of 2020 weekly claims hit 4.4 million for a 5-week total to move up to 6.6 million jobless claims for a total of 26 million--more than all the jobs added since the Great Recession of 2008. The real unemployment rate the first half of 2020 was expected to exceed 13%--with the U.S. losing between 26.5 to 33.2 million jobs in the first quarter of 2020. The second quarter saw the jobless count climb to more than 42 million jobs lost in the aftermath of the COVID-19 pandemic.
The previous high for U.S. unemployment was 24.9% during the Great Depression.
White House economic advisor Kevin Hassett says the unemployment rate will approach Great Depression statistics as the economy contracts dramatically while businesses in most parts of the nation remain shuttered--with employees being laid off or furloughed--due to the coronavirus pandemic. According to Hassett, "During the Great Recession of 2008 we lost 8.7 million jobs...Now we're losing that many every 10 days." Goldman Sachs says the global hit will be four times worse than the 2008 financial crisis.
The U.S. unemployment rate hit 14.7% in April of 2020, the highest level since the Great Depression. During this same month, 20.5 million jobs were lost, the worst jobs report in U.S. history.
Due to the drastic economic downturn, many industry sectors are struggling to survive-- including agriculture. Farmers and ranchers have seen catastrophic changes in prices and demand--affecting beef, pork, poultry, milk and crop producers. American agribusinesses--with large operations as well as smaller farmers--have had bumper crops or an abundance of milk for dairy farmers only to have to destroy yields not sold or dump milk unable to find markets. According to Robert McKnight, president of the Texas and Southwestern Cattle Raisers Association, "this is due to the logistics of getting things where they need to go, not an actual supply shortage."
Such system breakdown is due to lack of integrated infrastructure, logistics, and supply chain management. This tragedy is compounded when linked to the increased need for food and milk by the nation's food banks, and rising number of SNAP (Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program) food stamp recipients, reflecting the increased layoffs of millions of workers. And the specter of food insecurity of needy families and lack of adequate nourishment among at-risk populations has led to increased health issues, hospitalizations, and deaths.
In the first quarter of 2020 the World Health Organization (WHO) documented more than 3 million cases of COVID-19 worldwide with more than 200,000 deaths; by the third quarter worldwide cases climbed to 14.4 million with more than 600,000 deaths. Tracking the global outbreak, the respiratory disease spread rapidly around the world--to all six continents. China's first publicly acknowledged coronavirus case was in Wuhan in December (coming from a lab or local "wet markets"); by January 20 the virus had spread to Japan, Thailand, and South Korea. Like a raging wildfire, the pathogen relentlessly infected the rest of the world through transmission by human carriers via increased international travel and social interaction.
During the same period, the U.S. had more than 1 million cases with nearly 60,000 deaths--subsequently soaring and surpassing 94,000 deaths, with a total of more than 1.6 million cases. (Experts cite models estimating that coronavirus deaths will climb to 100,000 by June, 150,000 by August, and more than 200,000 by October 2020.)
As of the second quarter, the U.S. had documented more than 2 million cases, with more than 100,000 deaths; cases then climbed to 3.7 million with more than 140,000 deaths; fourth quarter level of morbidity surpassed 20.7 million cases with a mortality of more than 354,000 deaths.
In November of 2022, cases surged to more than 98.7 million after "super spreaders" during Thanksgiving, Christmas, New Year's gatherings, and sporting and entertainment activities--and spikes of variant and subvariant viruses, especially the Omicron variant after Delta the dominant strain and the most infectious--with more than 1.086 million deaths. Parallel to these parameters, with an increased incidence of cases with children, Pfizer received authorization from the FDA/CDC to give shots to adolescents 12 to 15 years of age and has applied and acquired approval from the FDA for vaccinations for children as young as 6 months old.
Another wave of the COVID-19 pandemic is impacting many parts of the world including Asia, Africa, and Latin America. Driving the increased caseloads has been the deadly Delta variant of the virus. The Delta variant surge in the U.S., largely responsible for the spike in a third wave of morbidity, hospitalizations, and mortality, has become a major focus in research and treatment. Lambda is another virus variant, detected first in Peru, that has spread to more than 30 countries including the U.S.; it appears to be more resistant to COVID-19 vaccines than other variants. The latest emergent variant is the Omicron, first detected in South Africa, and expected to become a global concern by WHO.
Dr. Anthony Fauci of the U.S. Center for Disease Control (CDC) had predicted a possible total of 400,000 deaths during flu season if precautionary protocols were not practiced. Comorbidities of coronavirus and the flu exacerbated the severity of the pandemic, as health experts had projected. By February, Dr. Fauci had predicted, as many as 500,000 deaths might occur with the onslaught of virulent variant viruses coming to the U.S. from South Africa, the U.K., Brazil, and other parts of the world. This projection was reached and surpassed, especially with spikes of cases in certain northern regions of the U.S. and a surge in infections among children and young people.
Globally, by November 2022, more than 640 million cases of COVID-19 were documented, with more than 6.63 million deaths. Beginning the fourth quarter of 2020 a second wave of the coronavirus surged in Europe and worldwide as predicted with increased cases of infections and deaths. The U.S. leads the world in coronavirus deaths with a fifth of all fatalities.
Although the U.S. population represents only about 4% of the world's population, current coronavirus cases and deaths comprise 25% of the global pandemic.
With the first U.S. case in Washington state January 21, the coronavirus epidemic quickly spread. States hardest hit include California, New York, New Jersey, Illinois, Massachusetts, California, Florida, and Texas. Following the U.S. in largest number of COVID-19 cases and deaths are Brazil, India, Russia, United Kingdom, Spain, and Italy.
Historically, global populations have been decimated by pandemics of plagues and virulent diseases. The bubonic plague (Black Death), also known as the Pestilence and Plague, was the most fatal pandemic recorded in human history, resulting in the deaths of up to 75-200 million people in Eurasia and North Africa, peaking in Europe from 1347 to 1351. The Black Death toll totaled 50 million people in the 14th century--60 % of Europe's entire population. The pathogen's carrier proved to be fleas on rats, a virulent vermin that ran rampant throughout Europe and populated areas of that time.
Just a century ago, the Spanish flu, 1918-20, after the lethal second wave struck in late 1918, saw new cases drop abruptly; by late 1918, influenza had almost disappeared from Philadelphia and other large U.S. cities. At its peak, Spanish flu had infected more than 500 million people--about a third of the world's population at the time. Without social distancing and other precautions, the mortality rate was immense because of overcrowded military camps and hospitals.
According to Dr. Nukhet Varlik, associate professor of history, University of South Carolina,
"History suggests diseases fade but are almost never truly gone."
Dr. Varlik further states that once they emerge, diseases rarely leave. Whether bacterial, viral or parasitic, virtually every disease pathogen that has affected people over the last several thousand years is still with us, because it is nearly impossible to fully eradicate them.
The only disease that has been eradicated through vaccination is smallpox.
Today the healthcare industry faces several catch-22 scenarios. Hospitals and other healthcare providers, in an effort to meet the demands of the pandemic's spread, have been desperately searching to procure ventilators and personal protective equipment (PPE) including gowns, goggles, gloves, masks, and face shields. Management's dilemma revolves around decisions related to the allocation of resources (in many cases the revenue stream has been reduced by half) for elective surgeries or to the anticipated/possible second wave coronavirus surge in the fall with increased hospitalizations of outlier patients.
With the current pandemic, WHO has called on scientists, national leaders, and the media to follow best practices in naming new infectious diseases to minimize unnecessary negative effects on nations, economies, and people. COVID-19, as other pandemics, is difficult to determine etiologic origins (pathogenesis) based on epidemiological and geographic data. Originating in China, it is theorized that bats are the carriers of the disease or perhaps pangolins, Asian scaly anteaters. With exponential expansion of urbanization and shrinkage of natural wildlife habitats, it is likely that the world will see increased incidence of infectious diseases across species as more and more wild animals come into close proximity with human populations. This means increased vigilance in creation care and environmental and ecological stewardship.
Pressure points and priorities must include enhanced surveillance of environmental degradation amid decreasing biodiversity and diminishing ecological footprints.
The symbiotic relationship between humans and wildlife will continue to be a key factor in the rise and spread of infectious diseases.
Other epidemics in recent years include viruses more deadly than the coronavirus but infecting fewer people. The COVID-19 pandemic has parallels and differences with past global epidemics such as SARS, MERS, swine flu, Ebola, and the Zika virus. Although all these pandemics have a global impact, policy-action paradigms are necessary in defining problems but more likely to be local and national in implementing cures and solutions. This glocal perspective can be stated as follows:
Basically, all politics, business, and healthcare are local in nature, forcing decision-makers to think globally and act locally; or think locally and act globally.
A business panacea for mitigating the negative impacts of the coronavirus outbreak is to proactively have in place a plan for the reformulation and recovery of a company when disaster strikes. Such a contingency plan would help to lessen the damage and remedial time to recovery. Information technology (IT) offers a helpful management resource as part of enterprise resource planning (ERP) called disaster recovery as a service (DRaaS). Such strategic planning not only demonstrates ethics and corporate social responsibility (CSR) but it makes good business sense as well. This is especially true when confronted with such a devastating economic tidal wave as the COVID-19 pandemic.
With so much uncertainty concerning the pandemic's trajectory, it is likely that the coronavirus pathogen will follow the life cycle of all organisms: 1) inception, 2) growth, 3) maturity/saturation, and 4) decline. One salient fact, however, stands out:
As long as the coronavirus runs its course, the COVID-19 pandemic will continue to create chaos in the global recession.
Only adequate testing, continued social distancing, wearing masks, and contact tracing will open up the economy. And, amid the coronavirus crisis, developing an effective vaccine is the only hope for holistic, systemic healing and restoration.
Mayo Clinic researchers, and dozens of companies around the world, are working in a variety of vaccine platforms to develop a COVID-19 vaccine. In an article by Liz Collin, Mayo's Dr. Richard Kennedy says that's better for everyone since he believes everyone will need the vaccine--calling a vaccine that protects the vast majority of people our best chance of getting back to a new normal.
In addition to vaccine research/development, the COVID-19 pandemic has spawned numerous other innovative medical intervention modalities. Among these is SAFE, an artificial intelligence (AI)-based proprietary data platform developed collaboratively by Mayo Clinic. Dr. John Halamka, Mayo's platform president, explains how the new digital health tool can be applied through the "five stages" of the pandemic by enabling on-demand testing, tracking of lab results, and proof of vaccine administration. SAFE, according to Dr. Halamka, can help navigate what he calls the five stages of the coronavirus pandemic:
Despite the devastating impact of the pandemic across all sectors of business and society-- with its risks and negative results--positive solutions (such as vaccines) are being developed as well with the new normal, which encourages hope.
Pharmaceutical companies Pfizer and Moderna both have developed vaccines, with global distribution beginning in December and January 2020-21. AstraZeneca and Johnson & Johnson also are developing vaccines for distribution. Exacerbating the severity of the pandemic's impact was the emergence in December of a variant of COVID-19. Appearing first in the U.K., the virus mutation quickly was transmitted to the U.S., with cases documented in California, Colorado, Florida, New York and 35 other states; other virulent variants are surfacing in different locations such as South Africa. Many questions remain related to the nature of these new strains, and analysts continue to probe the implications of this new crisis.
In the Chinese language the characters for "crisis" combine two ideograms--one for "danger," the other "opportunity." Hopefully, the silver lining of the pandemic's dark clouds will indicate the dawning of a new day, and lead to a brighter future for the world--assuming that appropriate local/global responses are made now that will take all people to a better tomorrow.
Meanwhile, the novel, unseen coronavirus enemy continues to attack as the world reels under the relentless havoc wreaked on resources and lives in the macro- and microeconomic realms--both corporate and personal--with rising inflation, stagflation, and shrinkflation dampening the embers of an otherwise robust and resilient economy.
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