COVID-19 outbreak and its impact on the global economy - list of reports

I have been reviewing a number of reports on the COVID-19 outbreak and its impact on the global economy. The short term focus is minimizing the spread of the disease and saving lives – this is what is needed.  But, if we do not have a plan to get the global economy back to work, more lives could be lost because of economic collapse than the virus.  Some sectors of the economy, countries and people working in these industry will suffer greatly: travel, restaurant, entertainment, higher education, small businesses. Other sectors may grow significantly: supply chain management, industry 4.0, telecommunication (5G, broadband, video conferencing, remote working, distance learning and AR/VR), robotics, medicine, healthcare, government (smart cities). 

See some of the reports I found helpful that are available to the public:

TAKING STOCK OF COVID-19 The Short- and Long-Term Ramifications on Technology and End Markets for visionaries

https://go.abiresearch.com/lp-taking-stock-of-covid-19

"ABI Research analysts have compiled their thoughts on the likely short- and long-term impacts this pandemic will have on key technologies and end markets.

This whitepaper offers insight into: The current state of technologies and end markets in the wake of the pandemic, Short- and long-term ramifications of COVID-19, Recommendations to weather the storm and strategies to help companies rebound and prosper after the pandemic has slowed.

This situation could lead to the following outcomes:

? A more concerted and widespread move to lights-out manufacturing

? Increased usage of autonomous materials handling and goods vehicles

? A more integrated, diverse, and coordinated supply chain

? Investment in smart cities to support community resilience

? A move to virtual workspaces and practices

? And so much more”

See this event COVID-19: The State & Future of Pandemics hosted by Singularity University Virtual Summit March 16-18, 2020 view the live stream at any time. 

SU COVID-19 Event Landing Page  https://lnkd.in/enw5M8n

ortunities for more automation and remote delivery of goods and services – Peter Xing https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TofiekYN_NQ&feature=youtu.be 

11:52 minutes into the talk shows a chart: amazon sec filing number of robots in amazon fulfillment center compared to total employment at Amazon from 2013 to 2019: 200K robots, 650K humans (humans that can get COVID-19)

“Amazon has more than 200,000 mobile robots working inside its warehouse network, alongside hundreds of thousands of human workers.”

https://www.vox.com/recode/2019/12/11/20982652/robots-amazon-warehouse-jobs-automation

GlobalData’s COVID-19 Executive Briefing report we help you understand the COVID-19 outbreak, its economic impact, and implications for specific sectors. https://www.globaldata.com/covid-19/

“COVID-19

• Spread of COVID-19
• Comparison with other infectious diseases
• Progression and inflection point
• Web and Social media trends
• Efforts to find cure

Economic Impact

• Impact on top economies
• Impact on markets around the globe
• Impact on GDP
• Government responses
• Company concerns

Sector Impact

·       Initial implications for specific sectors”

Also, See this link: Our nation’s broadband providers are working to keep you connected, no matter where you are, no matter what. US Telecom is proud to support our members in this critical work as together we prepare for, and respond to, the Coronavirus. Here are selected resources we trust will be relevant to our members, their employees, and the communities, families, and enterprises they serve. https://www.ustelecom.org/our-priorities/action-center-coronavirus/

I have been part of the KC Digital Drive Health Innovation Team for the last ~4 years. This Wednesday there will be a "virtual" via Google Hangouts: share how attendees are experiencing the current coronavirus dynamics and what sort of challenges and opportunities might be arising for, or within, the KC-area digital health ecosystem. What kinds of things are happening? What could the Health Innovation Team be doing to address them, especially in terms of supporting collaborations?

I had been investigating digital health for the last 20 years.  I worked on a Motorola’s telemedicine project (Mobile Solution to Monitor Chronically Ill Patients) activities with Sprint. In 2016, I presented at a local University in, on the IoT, Quantified Self, genetics and biomarker to Nursing, Health Sciences and Mathematics students. My goal was to encourage them to become interested in health IoT and Innovation and how IoT and Innovation will help the health and wellness of society in the future.  

My theme: medicine, health and wellness will be radically transform in the next 20 years with advances in smartphones, health apps, sensors, biomarker scanning and medical A.I. – just like telecommunication and computing in the last 20 years – or just like medicine 100-150 years ago with the discovery of the germ theory, antibiotics and stopping bloodletting, and purging. 

See how Singapore tracked the virus: Coronavirus: The detectives racing to contain the virus in Singapore

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-51866102.

Over a million connected thermometers in use within homes in the US enable Kinsa to anonymously aggregate data to detect flu epicenters well in advance of the CDC. They have been doing this for some time. https://healthweather.us/

“Last Saturday, it detected an usual rise in fevers in South Florida, which subsequent tests showed was a burgeoning Covid-19 epicenter. A simple IoT use case delivering enormous value.” https://www.cnet.com/news/fever-tracking-smart-thermometers-may-trace-the-spread-of-covid-19/?fbclid=IwAR0ZcOcj8aJ6VXJdwwOjCQQEusmZHv2vD2o1H0tKYKQ_Dv645QFWCOlLXs8

See the IDC Webinar, "COVID-19 First Response: The Transition to Remote Work ". To access the webinar on-demand,

There was a slide that showed: IDC Market Glance: Collaboration Applications - ~50 companies

See this blog: 1959/1989 "Game-Changer"- Cystic Fibrosis/CML – 30/40 year journey of hard work to solve how the body fails.

https://www.dhirubhai.net/pulse/19591989-game-changer-cystic-fibrosiscml-3040-year-journeys-hohulin/

In the book, the Philadelphia Chromosome: A Genetic Mystery, a Lethal Cancer, and the Improbable Invention of a Life-Saving Treatment by Jessica Wapner, tells the story of how it took HI (human intelligence) ~40 years of discovery to find a cure to one way the human body fails. The disease, Chronic myelogenous leukemia (CML), that would kill a person in 5 years. Now with just a pill – Gleevec (Imatinib), there is a complete cure. This is the type of wonder drug that is needed to be duplicated for other ways the body can fail. The last chapter gives a great summary of key steps in the process of dedicated hard working doctors, nurses, researchers, patients, caregivers and people who care.   “In modern medicine, Dr. Atul Gawande said, there are 13,600 diagnoses, or ways in which the human body can fail, and no patient comes in with just one diagnosis at a time. Now more than 6,000 drugs can be prescribed, and 4,000 medical and surgical procedures can be performed.”

See this talk: Virtual Primary Care- Dr. Jay Parkinson at Exponential Medicine https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Snrt5bS590Y&list=PLUdES2nKgl_ObnXGooEr92LyEYPXmQ65G&index=18

 In 2020, the numbers are likely to be higher and the % of GDP even higher (because overall GDP is going down as healthcare is going up)

U.S. Health Care Costs Skyrocketed to $3.65 Trillion in 2018 https://fortune.com/2019/02/21/us-health-care-costs-2/

"A new analysis from U.S. federal government actuaries say that Americans spent $3.65 trillion on health care in 2018, according to a report from Axios. The amount is larger than the GDPs of such countries as Brazil, the U.K., Mexico, Spain, and Canada. The level of spending is by far the highest in the developed world, according to data from the Organization for Economic Co-Operation and Development. That was an increase of 4.4% over 2017 and, according to the analysis, things will get even worse. The report in the journal Health Affairs estimates an average annual growth rate of 5.5% from 2018 to 2027. The current inflation rate is 1.6. Wage growth, while up from recent years, remains below 4%, according to the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta. At this rate, by 2027, health care will be 19.4% of the country’s entire GDP. The $3.65 trillion in spending represents $11,212 per person, with 59% of the spending going to hospitals, doctors, and clinical services. Prescription drug spending was up 3.3% year over year. Most of the increase was due to higher prices, not increased use of services."

Can this be Our Finest Hour - Humanity Coming Together as We Isolate Ourselves

https://www.dhirubhai.net/pulse/our-finest-hour-humanity-coming-together-we-isolate-doug-hohulin/

During this time, I would encourage all of us to think of ways we can help bring humanity together. Think of what you can do specifically to make a positive impact on your family, neighborhood, community, city, country, business and world. If each of us can do that, this could be our finest hour.

If COVID-19 would have come 20 years in the future, this may be a small problem: digital health to find it quickly, AI to solve it quickly, workers working from home in VR, robots, AV, UAV doing the work that do not get virus (at least the human kind).

20 years ago, it would probably have been a lot worse (or maybe less panic.)

We need to work with the tools and technology and healthcare system we have. I believe we are up for the task.

The question is what will the world look like in 6 months. 2 Futures to consider:

Bad: 2-3% global death rate, global economic collapse, 20% job loss, stock market down 75%, state failures

Good: 45 days: the COVID-19 will be like the flu and illness from COVID-19 will be significantly reduced. 90 days: supply chains back to normal, world economy starting to recover. 6 months: limited job loss and the economy back to normal. Stock market at today’s levels or 20% higher than today and we consider March-2020 like we considered Y2K or a bad flu season for most countries.

Some countries are already way past the bad flu season state, and if things do not change, jobs losses will be >20% very soon. Will state failures be the next step in the next 90 days?

My guess is that we will be somewhere in between these 2 extremes.

When I was learning to scuba dive, my instructor told me that if you run out of air, you have about 2 minutes before you lose consciousness. You can panic for those 2 minutes or do something productive and try to fix the problem.

Peter H. Diamandis wrote the blog: Augment Your Immunity: Fighting COVID-19

 “Never before has the whole of humanity faced a single common enemy that affects each of us as personally as this. Never. So what happens when 150,000,000 - 200,000,000 scientists, physicians and technologists turn their attention to solving a crisis?”

https://www.dhirubhai.net/pulse/augment-your-immunity-fighting-covid-19-peter-h-diamandis/

Will we look back at the year 2020 as the time humanity comes together to share in solving this major world problem. If so, our world could change for the better. Gives us practice to solve other threats to humanity like other diseases, climate change or planet killing asteroids.