Covid-19 and optimization

3 months ago I wrote that optimization could help tackle some global warming issues and this got many likes but I was also said: "Who cares ? Can optimization help with the current pandemics ? That's our short term challenge. "

Here I'd like to show how optimization and IBM CPLEX can help with this plague.

First, decision optimization can help reduce inbalance and help us live with Covid-19. Second, Optimization can help us look for a vaccine or a medicine. Third, Optimization will once we have some vaccine or medicine (as soon as possible I hope) send this pandemics to history. And finally, I will remind that optimization can help healthcare, always, before Cov-19, during Cov-19 and after Cov-19.

Deal with inbalance

We miss ventilators in some cities, we have too many patients in some overcrowded hospitals and we need to deal with new supply chain: masks.

Suppose we run out of ventilators. Who should get the ventilator ? We can hear that debate in Freakonomics . Let's hope this won't happen but optimization can help decide how to choose and address triage.

"Ventilators are really concrete, but the principles that we’re articulating apply to any indivisible resource that’s in short supply. So let’s imagine we have a vaccine for Covid-19. There’s still a question of who gets the vaccine. So we have a rationing problem yet again and we need to think carefully about who is going to get it and how it’s going to be allocated." Parag Pathak (MIT)

CPLEX is very efficient at tackling inbalances. (Rebalance bikes from full to empty stations in London)

Planning elective surgery is a common optimization use case but now we need to cancel as few elective surgeries to find some room for Cov-19 beds.

Optimization can help position tables in restaurants to keep everybody safe.

Optimization can help plan lockdown and curfews, find the right balance between freezing the economy and saving lives. (Multiobjective optimization)

As was showed in IBM Ponder This April 2020 challenge optimization can help simulate Cov-19 propagation according to infection rate.

Optimization can help the finance industry to plan investments according to the probabilities of getting a vaccine sooner or later. (Stochastic optimization) Banks and insurances can show here that they are critical for global and local resource allocation while reducing risk and collecting information.

Some use optimization within Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) to measure how different countries are more or less efficient at facing this worldwise pandemics.

Finally, optimization can help design a better tax policy as was written by Ramsey. Optimization can help design specific tax to help as many who need help and tax as little those who can afford to pay while minimizing the damage to the economy.

Looking for a vaccine / medicine

Optimization can help with the automation of biology discovery and Clinical trial planning.

But what is crucial is that optimization can help within genetics:

• Carnival
• CarveMe
• BioNet

Defeating the disease

Once we have a vaccine, (Soon I hope) optimization can help again.

Vaccine / medicine production scheduling is a standard use case for optimization.

Same for Vaccine Delivery at Scale and medicine supply chain.

Healthcare in general

Even before Cov-19, CPLEX and Decision Optimization have helped a lot within healthcare. Nurse planning is a quite common use case. I also think that stretcher bearer moves optimization is key.

And let me thank here all the nurses, doctors, surgeons, stretcher beares, ambulances ... that have saved so many lives recently.

THANK YOU