#Covid-19 Last Tango in Hong Kong
I just read this morning the excellent (as usual) SCMP Infographics. Congratulations to Marcelo Duhalde. It is flawless.
But it also tells A LOT that many conveniently overlooked while just swallowed, for face value, what kind of distorted "logic" is served to them.
Visualizing Hong Kong’s massive Covid-19 dance cluster (scmp.com)
(this amazing infographics can be accessed also via GOOGLE with "SCMP Pandemic Dance" on Jan 2, 2021.
So Ballroom Dancing is WHERE it officially starts and evidences of the culprits are overwhelming, while others pay a heavy price, again.
(Maybe a mother welcoming her son, student back from UK to Hong Kong, in self-quarantine on a family yacht shared his meals to make his "ordeal" more tolerable (lack of therapy dog I assume?)? Who knows? And that is beyond the point.
As of today, official data are
Latest situation of local situation of COVID-19 (chp.gov.hk)
(I saved a hard and soft copies just in case of unexpected tech blunder)
I start from Nov 1, 2020 case 5325 and am now at 9212 and digging into the clustering, the case numbers are ENOUGH to suspect some QUALITATIVE correlations.
No need for any academic paper killing trees to extract regressions (often marginally reliable). From #5325 onward (chronological order?) I find:
1. Cluster Star Global Direct Sales with 4 members (unlikely THE source of any problem).
2. Dancing / Singing Cluster with 732 members (it is easy to guess that ONCE they became infectious, some did not stay put but kept their routines as usual so the total damage is a MULTIPLE!)
3. Sky Cuisine with 22 members (unlikely THE source of any problem).
4. Tung Wah Group of Hospitals with 61 members (likely a breach of protocol when dealing with a patient).
5. Construction sites at LOHAS Park/ Kai Tak with 74 members (unlikely THE source of the MAIN problem so another one to investigate seriously).
6. Chuan Cheung KU with 12 members
7. Otto e Mezzo 8? Bombana with 23 members (WHICH VERY LIKELY IS CORRELATED WITH 2, the dancing cluster! One just has to check WHO owns Otto e Mezzo and assume that for friends of the owner, or his dancing (?) wife, Otto e Mezzo is their “Cantina” so when they show up, Chef Bombana comes and greets them personally potentially sharing a the virus. So cluster 7 and 2 are the same.
8. Lee Gardens Three Duckee with 16 members (likely a shopping area from a member of 2)
9. AsiaWorld–Expo with 25 members (likely a breach of protocol when dealing with a patient).
10. YATA Department Store (Shatin)with 28 members
11. Construction Site at Tseung Kwan O-Lam Tin Tunnel with 29 members (unlikely THE source of the MAIN problem so another one to investigate seriously LIKE 5)
12. Fung Nin Building with 14 members
13. Residents of Unit 33/34, Ming Lai House, Choi Wan Estate with 13 members
14. Billy Sir Music Classroom with 16 members (the link to cluster 2 with a member that did not come forward sounds obvious because of the recreational aspect, imagining a mother coming to pick up her child)
15. Glow Salon and Spa with 17 members (the link to cluster 2 with a member that did not come forward once infected sounds obvious too because of the recreational aspect)
16. Eastern Artificial Island of the Hong Kong-Zhuhai-Macao-Bridge with 14 members (unlikely THE source of the MAIN problem so another different cluster to investigate seriously)
17. Fung Nin Building with 14 members
18. Patient and Staff of United Christian Hospital with 21 members (likely a breach of protocol when dealing with a patient). 4, 9, 18
19. Construction Site at Tseung Kwan O-Lam Tin Tunnel (second cluster) with 32 members (likely a breach of protocol when dealing with a patient).THE NUMBER OF OCCURENCES OF THIS TYPE INDICATES THAT THE MATTER IS NOT TAKEN SERIOUSLY and DOES PRESENT A PERMANENT DANGER FOR HONG KONG UNTIL SOME RESPONSIBLE person….REEVALUATES PRIORITIES. 5, 11, 16, 17
Save clusters 5-11-16-19 and 4-9-18, it is fair to imagine that the LARGE MAJORITY of the rest (27, 8, 10, 14, 15,...) ARE PERFECT COLLATERAL DAMAGES of Cluster 2.
The math is VERY simple:
For a very wealthy lady that is not working, HOW MANY CONTACT PER WEEK DOES SHE HAS WITH OTHER PEOPLE? Even at +/-50% that could be an indication of WHO ARE THE CORONAVIRUS SUPER SPREADERS.
Similar studies with other social categories could be informative
a) So the mess originated through Ballroom Dancing
b) AND there is a problem in the constructions of the tunnels (Singapore? rings a bell?) where work should stopped for several days, everybody quarantined until tested negative.
Once this is fixed, like end of September (~177 left hidden) after the universal testing, having tracing teams on stand-by to strike at once a legacy case pops up is a must.
But there is a MISSING cluster that should be flagged to ...please medics and Carrie Lam and support "their critical measures" but it not!
No information, no number, nothing….while I saw videos of the ..."sardines" ABSOLUTELY squeezed in d’Aguilar Street and Lan Kwai Fong on Nov 1, 2019 for Halloween.
How many infections? How many dead?
I assume that if there was EVEN ONE case, even minor, the government, in its "infinite wisdom" would have pushed forward this case to justify its questionable idea to close bars & night clubs (which unlike other countries those in HK have powerful air circulation!)
The fact they could not point even a tiny finger to ANY implies there was NO CASE!
Not only this government totally lacks common sense (as we saw in August with the STUPID restaurant ban for lunch!
It’s PLUMBING STUPID! If they cannot go there WHERE DO THEY GO?)...but this government also expects to walk away with blunders while the victims do pay the bills!
Night-clubs and bars have been closed since March …but Ballroom Dancing, (i.e. TWO partners holding each other within 20 cm (I have doubt any mask can be of ANY use) and the dance instructor explaining then the same thing to another person, close and personal, HAS NEVER BEEN BANNED until the November panic.
Doesn’t anybody see there some STUPIDITY / INSANITY?
"No bread left? Eat Brioche!"
Back to the SCMP Infographics, were ALL THE CONTACTS of those Ballroom Dancing Cluster 762 persons be tested?
Have all their domestic helpers and drivers been tested as well as ALL FAMILY MEMBERS or ...PARTNERS?
That may be a better use of time than pathetic scared tactics of "communication" flagging daily potential untraceable cases…..most simply coming, directly or indirectly (but sloppy tracing) from the Ballroom Dancing Cluster….because SUCH a LARGE number can lead to promising results/ infections. No need to be Einstein to think like that.
Meanwhile many in the Food and Beverage Industry, AMONG OTHERS, are still on unpaid leave or are again for the 3rd time.
Does the government and THE BUSINESS OWNERS do really expect that all those will be able to go back to work in few months or few weeks to "celebrate CNY"…and in addition thank them for having a job back?
Because of the last 2 blunders, for which I hold the government responsible,
a) change of seacrew (no quarantine no test) and
b) numerous loopholes in CHP quarantine (personally verified),
unlike in July 2003, I really doubt that this time China will be able to help the Hong Kong economy to recover again as it did in H1 2003.
Carrie Lam is probably likely looking at the curves of:
· New daily infection and …derivatives,..assuming she understands what that means,
· New daily deaths and …derivatives,
· Maybe she should look too at the curve of daily suicides too!
and even if she ever had a vision and was doing the "right" think NOW, disasters will keep piling up for a weeks / months because of the inertia in the system and the damages across the board from a Just-In-Time system. Unlike 2019, 2020 is a PLASTIC impact to the Hong Kong economy, not elastic.
Maybe the Department of Health will be successful in a year or two, in which case the Hong Kong population will die finally…virus-free, Pyrhus 2.0
Maybe simply, the Hong Kong Government and its Department of Health will be PERFECTLY OPERATIONAL for the COVID-19 once a) it is gone and b) there is an overwhelming supply of vaccines. As a Hong Kong resident having lived through SARS 2003, I was having higher expectations.
A while ago I heard a rumor that a Hong Kong university had a so-called "Risk Management and Business Intelligence" program, unless it has been disbanded, if so it is then probably extremely busy advising our Hong Kong Government through the optimum path.
Pascal VINAIS
January 11, 2021