Covid-19 Journal, 5 Mar., 2022: A Great Gamble, grandson tests positive, fallout from the Ukraine conflict

We in Ontario, and in much of the world, have decided to engage in a Great Gamble: We’ve decided that we’re fed up with Covid-19 (and the irksome restrictions that have been keeping people alive) and will soon jettison all formal restrictions and learn to live (or die) with Covid. This an emotional reaction to the problem, not a rational one?(Star Editorial Board, 2022)?, but appeals to the emotions are often more powerful than mountains of evidence, hence the Great Gamble. The gamble may succeed, hospitalizations are going down, but again, these are a lagging indicator and it will be some weeks before we know whether or not cases will begin to rise as restrictions are lifted. But the gamble may also fail, and restrictions may have to be reimposed. We simply don’t know and aren’t being guided rationally here.?

The graph below shows the hospitalization numbers for February 1 to March 5 (today). As can be seen, at the beginning of February, there was a steady, linear decline, but approaching the end of the month, we begin to see a levelling-off and there is a potential to see a rise. At this point, it’s not possible to say which trend will dominate, but given the lifting of restrictions, it’s likely we’ll get a rise.

Figure?17.?Ontario Covid-19 hospitalizations from Feb. 1 to Mar. 5. The blue line is the raw data; the orange line, the 7-day rolling average.

This hits home to me because yesterday, my grandson James was sent home from school after testing positive for Covid-19. James is vaccinated, but not at the same level as adults (pediatric vaccines being more recent). So far, he is not ill, but we worry this and about his younger brother, almost-4-year-old Stephen, who cannot yet be vaccinated and is therefore more vulnerable to infection and illness. The family now has to isolate for 5 days, but that’s really six days because they start counting at zero. Having tested positive on Friday, James cannot return to school until Wednesday, assuming neither he nor Stephen develop Covid-19 symptoms. This has thrown the parents’ schedules into chaos, yet again, but they’ve had to learn to cope with that over the past two years. Many parents and grandparents are worried that the health of their unvaccinated young children is being put at risk because people are chaffing at the restrictions and are neglectful of others. At the beginning of March, the government put forward a careful and sensible reopening plan. I wish they had followed it, but yet again, they have jumped the gun.

The conflict in the Ukraine has been much in the news of late, and it’s quite horrific what’s happening there. One aspect of this that I have not heard mentioned and wonder about is that I have read that there are high Covid-19 numbers in Russia, and presumably Ukraine is not entirely free of it either. Today it is reported that there are over one million refugees who have fled the Ukraine and are arriving in Poland and other Eastern European countries. Canada had pledged to take as many as we can, and having a large Ukraine community here already, are better-placed than many to provide support for them. However, as I mentioned above, Covid-19 is a wild card here. How many of these refugees have Covid but are as yet asymptomatic, and how will this affect things? Hans Zinsser?(2008)?in his book,?Rats, Lice and History, discusses how many battles in history have been won, lost, or altered by outbreaks of disease among the troops of either army fighting in the conflict. I ask the this about the Ukraine conflict–how will Covid affect things? How will it affect refugees and their ability to find safe haven? Covid-19 is truly a wild card here, and may have a considerable effect on things, but I haven’t seen this discussed anywhere.

Other than that, things are proceeding as usual here in Severn. On Wednesday last, I gave a talk on?Robotics and AI?to the South Muskoka Probus Club. At first, when they asked me last fall, they wanted me to come up to Bracebridge and give the presentation live, which I said I would do. However, shortly thereafter, they asked if I’d be willing to do it virtually over Zoom. I again said yes. Later, they suggested that they would like me to do it live if possible, but keep the Zoom option open. Eventually, I recorded the presentation, did it via Zoom, and was virtually present during the meeting to answer questions. I mention this because this is a big part of the new normal. The government may remove restrictions, but many organizations are keeping them because their clientele are afraid to attend live events, and if they will attend, they want the restrictions to remain in place. When “normality” returns, it won’t be the same as before Covid, something we all have to be aware of.

That’s all I have for today. I will write again as things evolve.

References

Star Editorial Board. 2022. "For Doug Ford (and other politicians), emotion beats logic every time."?Toronto Star, 15 Feb., Editorials.?https://www.thestar.com/opinion/editorials/2022/02/15/for-doug-ford-and-other-politicians-emotion-beats-logic-every-time.html.

Zinsser, Hans. 2008.?Rats, lice, and history. New Brunswick, N.J.: AldineTransaction.

* As always in these journals, Figure numbers continue from previous posts.

[This is part of an ongoing series of journal posts about my life during Covid-19. Suggested by a museum colleague, it is intended to eventually be a minor historical document–an account of how life changed during the pandemic. I make no claim to drama or interesting detail, just life as I am living it].