Covid-19 Journal, 20 April, 2022: The XE variant, the 6th Wave, returning back to the office, and inflation

It has been an eventful fifteen days since I last wrote. During that time, we’re pretty much fully reopened, we’ve seen a significant rise in Covid-19 hospitalizations, we’ve got a new Covid-19 variant that has arrived in Canada, there are problems relating to returning to the office and problems with inflation. It’s difficult to know where to begin.

I will start with the new XE Covid-19 variant as it is being described a little differently than previous variants. Here’s what we know so far?(Mak, 2022):

·??????The WHO reports that the XE variant is the most transmissible variant so far.

·??????It is a?recombinant?variant, meaning it contains material from two or more other variants (Figure??24).

·??????XE is now dominant in 68 countries, and at least six cases have been identified in Canada as of April 13.

As can be seen in Figure 24, XE is a mix of the original Omicron variant and of two sub-variants, BA.1 and BA.2. So far, indications are that current vaccines are effective against it, although, as with all vaccines, they don’t provide perfect protection. The PHAC has issued this comment:?

All viruses, including COVID-19, change over time. These changes are called mutations, and result in variants of the virus. Not all mutations are of concern. Most do not cause more severe illness … We must remain vigilant and take all available measures to limit spread.?(Mak, 2022, italics added).

The part about remaining vigilant strongly suggests that we should still wear masks, social distance and generally take the precautions that are being so enthusiastically jettisoned at present.

Figure?24.?The XE variant is a recombinant of the original Omicron variant and variants BA.1 and BA.2.

Despite this, the Ontario Government is trying to minimize the threat level from Covid-19 and embrace reopening as if there is no real problem. Figures 25 and 26 show how things actually stand.

Figure?25.?Ontario Covid-19 hospitalization data from the beginning of January to April 20, 2022.

As can be seen, after successfully wrestling the Covid-19 hospitalization numbers down through January, February, and most of March, we began to reopen, and Hey Presto!, cases started a steady rise.

Figure?26.?Covid-19 hospitalization numbers for April 1-20, 2022.

As can be seen in Figure 26, the raw data line (blue) is somewhat jagged. This is due to inconsistencies in data reporting, particularly on weekends. The seven-day rolling average (orange line) provides a clearer view and we can see a steady rise in cases at a rate of about 37 additional new case per day. Based on these data, we can expect to see close to 2,000 Covid-19 cases per day by the end of the month if no new public health measures are instated.?

Looking at recent performance, and the upcoming election in Ontario, I don’t see any new measures being brought in. Figure 27 shows two cartoons, one about the problem of mutating variants and one about the lack of government response to the 6th?Wave and the apparent muzzling of public health officials. Certainly, we are hearing conflicting advice about Covid-19 precautions with the government insisting on reopening and saying it’s safe,??but the PHAC, Dr. Theresa Tam (Canada’s Chief Public Health Officer) and others recommending avoiding in-person activities, wearing masks, and generally behaving as if there is, in fact, a 6th?Wave going on?(Aiello, 2022).

Figure?27.?De Adder's cartoon about the difficulties of controlling the variants, and Moudakis' cartoon about the apparent muzzling of public health officials.?(De Adder, 2022c; Moudakis, 2022f)

Finally, we come to inflation and the return to the office.

The Conference Board of Canada today reports that the Consumer Price Index for March, 2022 has risen to 6.7 percent since last year?(2022, email message). Gas prices are up by 11.8%, 39.8% higher than last year. Food prices have risen 8.7% and restaurant meals are up by 5.4%. Not all of this is attributable to Covid-19, but some of it is. For example, the Conference Board reports (2022),?“In Canada, many restrictions were lifted in March, and as service-producing businesses began to ramp up their operations, service prices increased by 4.3 per cent (y/y)”.?

One would think that, with these significant rises in inflation, businesses would continue to encourage employees to work remotely, saving money on their commute and lunches, etc., while the company can save money by renting smaller premises. It would also reduce possible infections. However, expectations continue to be dashed. Cavataro?(2022)?reports that while executives worldwide are telling their employees that they have to return to the office, only 19% of executives themselves are fully in-office (p. 1). Currently, 35% of non-executive employees are Monday-to-Friday in-office. As it stands,?

In the fourth quarter of 2021, non-executives were about 1.3 times as likely as their bosses to be fully in office. Now it’s nearly twice as likely, and the share of non-executives who are in five days a week is the highest since the survey began in June 2020, according to the more than 10,000 white-collar workers polled in the U.S., Australia, France, Germany, Japan and the U.K. Future Forum’s definition of ‘executives’ includes those with a title of president or partner or anything in the C-suite.?(Cavataro, 2022. italics added).

This is the kind of thing David Graeber talks about in his book?Bullshit Jobs?(2018)?in which he reports that meaningless work is added to departments to swell the employee numbers and make the boss more important. Similarly, having everyone at the office instead of at home?also?makes the boss look more important but contributes little or nothing to productivity. One suspects that these managers are afraid that when it is discovered just how well their employees manage without them, they will be judged redundant, hence the demands that employees return to the office.?

On the home front my middle son David and his wife Vicky both came down with Covid-19 last week, and as a result, did not join us for Easter. They have both recovered, but isolated for a period to avoid infecting us. We really missed seeing them for Easter.

Other than that, things here are unchanged. I will write again as the situation continues to unfold.

References=

Aiello, Rachel. 2022. "A COVID-19 resurgence is underway in Canada, modelling indicates."?CTVNews.ca, 1 April.

Cavataro, Ryan. 2022. "Bosses don’t follow their own advice in returning to the office."?Bloomberg News, 19 April.

Conference Board of Canada. 2022. "CPI up 6.7 per cent in March; Bank of Canada’s gloves come off in April." Canada, 20 April.

De Adder, Michael. 2022. Whack a variant. Toronto: Toronto Star Publishing.

Graeber, David. 2018.?Bullshit jobs. First Simon & Schuster hardcover edition. ed. New York ; Toronto: Simon & Schuster.

Mak, Ivy. 2022. "Canada has 6 confirmed cases of XE. Here’s what we know about the hybrid COVID strain."?Toronto Star, 13 April, Canada.?https://www.thestar.com/news/canada/2022/04/13/canada-has-6-confirmed-cases-of-xe-heres-what-we-know-about-the-hybrid-covid-strain.html.

Moudakis, Theo. 2022. See, hear, speak. Toronto: Toronto Star Publishing.

* As always in these journals, Figure numbers continue from previous posts.

[This is part of an ongoing series of journal posts about my life during Covid-19. Suggested by a museum colleague, it is intended to eventually be a minor historical document–an account of how life changed during the pandemic. I make no claim to drama or interesting detail, just life as I am living it]