Covid-19 Journal, 19 March, 2022: Science Advisory Table projections, StatCan reports on social and economic impacts of Covid-19, hate crime increase

Reopening is continuing apace in Canada in general, and in Ontario in particular. The Ontario Science Advisory Table has now released its latest projections from its computer modelling of the pandemic and the results are mixed. Here are the key findings?(2022):

? COVID-19 case numbers, hospital and ICU occupancy have stopped declining; there is considerable regional variation.

? Given the relaxation of public health measures and consequent increase in transmission, hospital and ICU occupancy will likely increase over the next few weeks, but less than in January 2022 and for a limited period of time if changes in behaviour are only moderate.

? The extent of this increase, and of a person’s risk of contracting COVID-19, will depend on the number of close contacts (especially indoors without masking), vaccination status, and the spread of the more transmissible BA.2 subvariant.

? Older adults, immunocompromised, unvaccinated and marginalized individuals and groups are still susceptible to severe illness from COVID-19.

? A complete vaccine series (currently two doses in children, three doses in adults, four in long-term care residents and other eligible high-risk groups) is the best defence against getting and spreading COVID-19. (p. 2, italics added)

The bad news is that, as I predicted in my last posting, the case numbers and hospitalizations have stopped declining and are increasing. The good news is that although increases are expected during reopening, they will likely not overwhelm the system unless people start to behave really recklessly. They are recommending that immunocompromised persons get a fourth vaccination, so I will be looking into that.

Statistics Canada (aka StatCan or StatsCan) has been busy and has published an interesting?report on the social and economic impacts of Covid-109 for the years 2020-2021?(2022). 2022 is largely excluded from the report because of the time it takes to collect and analyze the data–they haven’t had enough time to do the early part of 2022 yet. The report is quite detailed, and I won’t go into all of it here. Of particular interest though is the timeline they have created for major events during that period.

Figure?21.?StatCan timeline of Covid-19 events during the period 2020-2022.?(Statistics Canada, 2022)

Highlights from the timeline include:

·??Mar. 11th,??2020, Covid-19 declared a pandemic.

·??Mar. 25th, 2020,??Canada Emergency Response Benefits introduced

·??Employment losses, March/April total 3 million unemployed due to Covid-19

·??June 2020, “Retail sales surpass pre-Covid-19 levels” (p. 1)

·??Sept. 2020, second wave begins

·??Dec. 2020, vaccinations start, output returns to with 4% of pre-Covid levels, employment is now 640,000 below pre-Covid levels. 640,000 is 21% of 3 million, so 21% of those who lost their jobs were still unemployed, but that’s still a major improvement.

·??Jan. 2021, large employment decline

·??Mar. 2021, Real estate starts rising considerably, reaching nearly $600 billion, up 25% from pre-Covid levels.

·??Mar./Apr., third wave begins

·??Sept. 2021, fourth wave begins, 80% of Canadians are now vaccinated and employment has recovered to pre-Covid levels.

·??Dec. 2021, fifth (Omicron) wave begins.

·??Jan. 2022, inflation reaches 30-year high.

I think it’s important to look at things like this because we are already beginning to forget how bad things were, how much worse they could have been without things like the CERB, and how long this has gone on.?

In addition to the report on general social and economic impacts, StatsCan has also released a report on the rather dramatic increase in anti-Asian hate crimes in Canada during the pandemic?(Yun, 2022).?

From the article,

A new report from Statistics Canada show that the first year of the COVID-19 pandemic coincided with a 301-per-cent increase in police-reported hate crimes against East and Southeast Asian Canadians compared to the previous year. (p. 1, italics added)

One problem is that the 301% increase is likely an underestimate. StatsCan can only report on the crimes reported to police, they can’t use anecdotal or non-official sources. For example, “The Chinese Canadian National Council documented 1,150 racist attacks against East and Southeast Asian in Canada between March 2020 and February 2021” (Yun, 2022). Their report is quite a bit higher than what was reported to the police. Quoting the report, Yun notes,?

While it is not possible to connect the police-reported hate crime incidents to specific events, it can be said that social movements can bring to light issues of discrimination, potentially increasing awareness and reporting, as well as potentially exacerbating crimes targeting a particular group as a result of individuals or groups reacting to the movement. (p. 1, italics added)

Among the social movements alluded to in the report is the Freedom Convoy, which attracted a large number of far-right racist groups.

This is, of course, not good news and goes to show that one doesn’t have to scratch very deep to find entrenched racism in our society, something that I find quite depressing.

On the personal front, my son Adam and his family usually come to visit during March Break to do some skiing and generally frolic in the last of the snow for the year, but this year could not. First 8-year-old James got Covid, then his mother??Emily got it, then 3-year-old Stephen got it, and finally Adam got it. While all have now recovered, they all have had to isolate and Adam’s isolation period ends on Sunday, at the end of March Break, and too late to come and visit. Other than that, things are fine, and my in-laws, who have been in Florida begin their homeward peregrinations soon, probably arriving Tuesday or Wednesday, weather and Covid-19 permitting.

That’s all I have for today and will write again as things continue to evolve.

References

Ontario Science Advisory Table. 2022. Update on Covid-19 Projections: Science advisory and modelling consensus tables, March 17, 2022. Ontario: Ontario Science Advisory Table.

Statistics Canada. 2022. Covid-19 in Canada: A two-year update on social and economic impacts. Ottawa: Statistics Canada.

Yun, Tom. 2022. "Police-reported anti-Asian hate crimes in Canada jumped 300 per cent in 2020: StatCan."?CTVNews.ca, 17 March.

* As always in these journals, Figure numbers continue from previous posts.

[This is part of an ongoing series of journal posts about my life during Covid-19. Suggested by a museum colleague, it is intended to eventually be a minor historical document–an account of how life changed during the pandemic. I make no claim to drama or interesting detail, just life as I am living it].