COVID-19 Infection Grossly Under-Reported in Africa - Case of Nigeria based on NCDC Report with NIMR

Below (reference) is an article by Nigeria Centre for Disease Control (NCDC) and Nigeria Institute for Medical Research (NIMR). The findings are mind bugling as to how many people most likely have contracted SARS-CoV-2, the virus that causes COVID-19, in Nigeria. A whopping 23% in Lagos and Enugu States, 19% in Nassarawa State, and 9% in Gombe State based on antibody test done on random candidates. This implies an estimated 4,036,960 people in Lagos State; 751,602 in Enugu State; 429,957 in Nassarawa State and 212,853 in Gombe State have contracted COVID-19 as of September 2020 before the highly contagious variant from South Africa and the UK started spreading in December 2020. That is about 5.4 million people infected with coronavirus in four states in Nigeria. If we extrapolate this to 36 states, that is approximately 48.6 million Nigerians with COVID-19 infection as of September 2020, 30 times more than the current number being reported on NCDC's website. That is almost 20% of Nigeria's population. It is an understatement to say the infection rate is under-reported in Nigeria and most other African countries. If these numbers were properly reported, Nigeria would have the highest case of COVID-19 in the world, almost twice as many as the US. The question is, why have we not seen as many death? The answer is in Nigeria's population distribution. More than half of Nigerians (105 million) are below the age of 35 years. The median age of 209 million people in Nigeria is 18.4 years. Before COVID-19, the average life expectancy in Nigeria was 53 years. The vulnerable group (older than 65 years) within the population are so few, less than 10 million. People who could have died from COVID-19 in Nigeria were already dead before COVID-19. Even still, the truth is that many Nigerians, especially elderly Nigerians, died of COVID-19 but many refused to admit it because no one conducts an autopsy to ascertain the cause of death. If we think about how many old people in Nigeria died last year compared to 2019, perhaps we will see what is missing. Alas, this data is not there. This confirms what I, like many others have been saying forever, against the nonchalant attitude and "religionization" of this virus' spread in Nigeria.

Despite taking all precautionary steps throughout, I contracted covid when I visited Nigeria late last year. The majority of the people did not cover their face, social distancing rules were flouted at will, many religious leaders tell their congregation that God has special grace for Africans (not disparaging faith but how come the same God has not saved Africans from other deadly diseases that are endemic in the continent - wisdom is expedient, God admonished), hospitals and market places were crowded everywhere. The same God that provides healing exemplified not tempting God and admonished that we add work (practical steps like adhering to social distancing rules and taking the covid vaccine) to our faith so that it does not appear we are tempting God. After all, Jesus did not jump from the top of a hill when the devil told him to on the pretext that God can save him from any danger.

I know many family members and friends who contracted covid in Nigeria, and seven of my friends lost their parents in incidents that looked like the COVID-19 situation between November 2020 and Jan 2021, these are aside from celebrities and public figures who we know contracted and/ died from this deadly virus. Many prominent people, including politicians (former Chief of Staff to President Buhari, Aba Kyari, former governor of Oyo State, Sen. Ajimobi, some Professors who sat at the same table at a function in Lagos) and celebrities (prominent Yoruba Actress - Orisabunmi and two of her brothers died within a week) in Nigeria have died of covid-19. We know of some African leaders who took the virus for granted and died of its infection - case in point, President of Burundi and lately, President of Tanzania. We know of these because they were public figures, several ordinary people have died of people, and their death attributed to other causes. With the more contagious COVID-19 variants ravaging the rest of the world, I am sure the disease is spreading faster than before in Nigeria and many more people will die, not just the old people. I wrote about the other vulnerable groups in another article. https://akinbodeadedeji.blogspot.com/2021/02/misinformation-religious-conspiracy-and.html. Please, protect yourself and the members of your family.

I heard there are fake vaccines in circulation in Lagos Nigeria, even before the approved vaccine. Many are spiritualizing the vaccine (unfortunately, some of the so-called faith fathers who are discouraging their members from taking the vaccine will be among the first to take it in secret) and peddling all kinds of conspiracy theories about its impact or motivation. Please, if you don't want to be part of the bad statistics, do things right. Be ready to take the vaccine when you have access. It is mostly being provided free. If in doubt of authenticity, find a way to ascertain that the vaccine you get is not the fake one, get it from government-approved sources and not under the table. And don't join in spreading fake news about the vaccine.

The rest of the world needs to come to the aid of poor African countries who want to vaccinate their people but are not competitive to source the vaccine. The United States is leading the way, China which says it is a friend of Africa has an opportunity here. The continent should not be the last place to get help in vaccinating its people.

#covid-19africa; #vaccinateafrica

Reference:

CDC: https://phil.cdc.gov/Details.aspx?pid=23311