Covid-19 Global Statistical and Comparative Analysis

Covid-19 / SARS-Cov-2 Global Statistical and Comparative Analysis

Dev M, Devendra, CGMA, ACMA(UK), PMP

MedGlobal Health Corporation

Compilation of global statistics for Covid-19 infections and testing from multiple verified sources with related stats for population demography, health risk factors, health care infrastructure and some key economic indicators. These stats are for a selected diverse list of 23 countries (spanning geography, population demography, health risk factors, economic development and health infrastructure) to facilitate global comparative analysis and identification of potential influences / drivers.

Comparative Statistical Data as at 18 October, 2020 - Table 1 (Testing, Covid 19 Confirmed Cases, Recoveries, Deaths):

Link to PDF: https://media-exp1.licdn.com/dms/document/C4E2DAQGOObaLnyr65A/profile-treasury-document-pdf-analyzed/0/1603055442175?e=1604354400&v=beta&t=88t5JIqvNsZIYl-Sv0cbwfZCDzpkKV9fHOyscr5adT4

The analysis of this data reveal some interesting risk factors and relationships. The stats were updated on regular basis to generate time series data for trend and other potential predictive analytics.

Comparative Statistical Data as at 18 October, 2020 - Table 2 (Active Cases, Mild, Serious/Critical, Population Median Age):

Link to PDF: https://media-exp1.licdn.com/dms/document/C4E2DAQGOObaLnyr65A/profile-treasury-document-pdf-analyzed/0/1603055442175?e=1604354400&v=beta&t=88t5JIqvNsZIYl-Sv0cbwfZCDzpkKV9fHOyscr5adT4

For this study the following factors were considered as strengths or weaknesses internal to a country:

Population Demography

1) Percentage of Population 65 years or older

2) Median Age of population

3) Urban Population (as a percentage of total)

4) Literacy rate

Comparative Statistical Data as at 18 October, 2020 - Table 3 (Population Demography/Risk: Over 65, Life Expectancy, Literacy, Urbanisation; Resources: PPP GDP, PPP GDP per Capita):

Link to PDF: https://media-exp1.licdn.com/dms/document/C4E2DAQGOObaLnyr65A/profile-treasury-document-pdf-analyzed/0/1603055442175?e=1604354400&v=beta&t=88t5JIqvNsZIYl-Sv0cbwfZCDzpkKV9fHOyscr5adT4

Population Health Risk Factors

5) Life Expectancy at birth

6) Adult prevalence of Obesity (as a percentage)

7) Major Infectious Disease Risk assessment (only available for limited countries) 

Health Infrastructure

8) Physician Density per 1,000

9) Hospital Bed Density per 1,000

10) Healthcare expenses as a percentage of GDP

Comparative Statistical Data as at 18 October, 2020 - Table 4 (Health Infrastructure: Health % of GDP spending, Physician and Hospital Bed Density; Infectious Disease Risk; Obesity):

Link to PDF: https://media-exp1.licdn.com/dms/document/C4E2DAQGOObaLnyr65A/profile-treasury-document-pdf-analyzed/0/1603055442175?e=1604354400&v=beta&t=88t5JIqvNsZIYl-Sv0cbwfZCDzpkKV9fHOyscr5adT4

Economic Strength and Financial /Technology Resources

11) Gross Domestic Product (GDP) on Purchasing Power Parity (PPP) measurement basis

12) Per Capita PPP GDP

Opportunities and Threats

For this study the following factors are considered as opportunities or threats/risks that are external to a country:

Covid 19 Source Data

1) Number of Covid 19 Tests

2) Number of Confirmed Covid-19 Cases

3) Covid 19 related Deaths

4) Covid 19 patients who have Recovered and Discharged

5) Covid 19 Active Cases

6) Active Cases reported as Mild Condition

7) Active Cases reported as in Serious or Critical Condition

Covid 19 Analytic Data / Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)

8) Percentage of Global Confirmed Cases - as reported by countries as infected with Covid 19

9) Percentage of (Country) Population Infected with Covid 19

10) Infected as a Percentage of Tested

11) Percentage of Population Tested

12) Tested as a Multiplier of Confirmed Cases

13) Recovered / Discharged as Percentage of Confirmed Cases

14) Recovered / Discharged as Percentage of Closed Cases

15) Deaths as Percentage of Confirmed Cases

16) Deaths as Percentage of Closed Cases

17) Mild Condition as Percentage of Confirmed Cases

18) Mild Condition as Percentage of Active Cases

19) Serious / Critical Condition as Percentage of Confirmed Cases

20) Serious / Critical as Percentage of Active Cases

Comparative Statistical Data as at 9 May, 2020 (Historic) - Table 5 (Testing, Covid 19 Confirmed Cases, Recoveries, Deaths):

Link to PDF: https://media-exp1.licdn.com/dms/document/C4E2DAQF0395AwcInlQ/profile-treasury-document-pdf-analyzed/0/1603055424046?e=1604354400&v=beta&t=_cJ01tcbCRkc6uRXWIhDLmlpGaWo_vZ4KEA3Q31VdYg

Key Benefits of SWOT for Covid 19 Global Comparative Analysis

A SWOT methodology driven global comparative analysis for Covid 19 can be useful for:

1) Identifying strategic direction and plans that will likely be most effective based on global benchmarking and current performance.

2) Help identify potential impediments and constraints that will limit success and ability to achieve goals and objectives.

3) Reveal possibilities, likelihood and limitations to effecting positive change.

4) Facilitate identifying and exploring new solutions to existing challenges.

5) Act as a tool to facilitate brainstorming ideas and a recording and documentation for communication across multiple disciplines and stakeholders.

6) Supporting and enhancing the credibility of data interpretation, analysis and conclusion of this report and presentation to peers, interested parties and other stakeholders.

Comparative Statistical Data as at 9 May, 2020 (Historic) - Table 6 (Active Cases, Mild, Serious/Critical, Median Age):

?Link to PDF: https://media-exp1.licdn.com/dms/document/C4E2DAQF0395AwcInlQ/profile-treasury-document-pdf-analyzed/0/1603055424046?e=1604354400&v=beta&t=_cJ01tcbCRkc6uRXWIhDLmlpGaWo_vZ4KEA3Q31VdYg

The above is the preliminary raw data analytics. Analytical observations and conclusions to follow. However, to a great extent the Covid 19 Key Performance Indicators (KPIs) defined above speak for themselves, when used in conjunction with comparison data for other countries for benchmarking and performance analysis.

Correlation of KPI performance to country specific individual strengths and weaknesses requires further work including statistical, regression and/or other pattern recognition analytics. Further extension of this work will be development of country specific prediction and forecasting models for Covid-19 to support healthcare planning and intervention.

Appendix:

1) Comparative Statistical Data as at 1 November, 2020 - Link to PDF document: https://media-exp1.licdn.com/dms/document/C562DAQF-MAPqX6OXzg/profile-treasury-document-pdf-analyzed/0/1604264500419?e=1604354400&v=beta&t=z2sjIJCCxTWUADscCP66iJi8ST9T8su2rCsZkHvvH6Q