CoVid-19 and the Future of the EU

By Elizabeth Filippouli

In the post-apocalyptic horror film ‘Bird Box’ we hear Malorie’s (Sandra Bullock) desperate voice commanding her child: “Listen to me, we're going on a trip now, it's going to be rough. If you hear something in the woods, you tell me. if you hear something in the water, you tell me. But under no circumstances are you allowed to take off your blindfold.”

The film is about a world threatened by an unknown global terror, a mysterious force taking people’s lives. Open your eyes and you are facing your own end. The viewer doesn’t know when, where, and how.

January 1st, 2020: when the world celebrated New Year’s Day and the beginning of a new decade, it all felt positive, optimistic. Things went relentlessly wrong.

April 1st, 2020 (not April Fool's joke!): three months into the new decade and we wonder if Humanity is about to meet its own end. If 9/11 flabbergasted the world sending shock and awe around the planet and chills down everyone’s spine, CoVid-19 has made even the calmer ones among us wonder if the Apocalypse has indeed arrived.

Trapped between responsibility, panic, confusion and understaffed, unequipped and unprepared public health systems, the various governments in the European Union are trying to make the best possible decisions for their nations.

In Italy sirens are blaring, bells toll for the dead, entire neighbourhoods sing on balconies every evening: ‘Tutto andra bene’, everything will be ok. The country is in pain, struck by death and uncertainty. The threat of an economic meltdown is imminent.

Spain, a country deeply traumatized by the lasting impact of the 2008 financial crisis, has become a CoVid-19 contagion hotbed. Apparently, it all started in Lombardy on Feb 19, when a Champions League game in Bergamo, brought together 2500 Valencia fans and 40,000 Atalanta supporters. A few days later the bomb exploded in Lombardy. A few weeks later Spain followed suit.

In a seemingly calm UK, the Government delayed social distancing and lockdown measures. Boris Johnson, a few of his Government Ministers, even the Prince of Wales, were all hit by CoVid-19. The British PM, an advocate of the ‘herd immunity’ tactic, was blamed for allowing a huge risk against public safety.

On March 26, Germany is shaken by the tragic news that the Finance Minister of Hesse, Thomas Schaefer, took his own life after becoming “deeply worried” over how to cope with the economic fallout from the coronavirus. Taking a closer look at this story it may be pointing towards the tip of an iceberg that could be a seriously bad recession.

Meanwhile in Sweden, the Prime Minister has (so far) refused to 'shut down' his country arguing that the economic damage from switching the economy off, would be of a far more negative impact than that of a health crisis. He appealed to Swedish citizens to demonstrate accountability and voluntary compliance to protect their society, and nation. Whilst some have accused him of a ‘Russian roulette-style’ strategy, his response is ‘only history will tell’.

Indeed, history will judge which politicians, scientists and pundits around Europe made the best calls during this unforeseen crisis. In the end, prevention is a political issue; governments must make decisions that balance financial losses with lockdown measures while they protect as many lives as possible. The proportion of people who have died from the disease varies strikingly from country to country. Researchers warn that there are still way too many uncertainties that prevent us from drawing any conclusions or making credible assessments on number of infections and, subsequently, mortality rate.

For quite some time now the European Union has been battling an existential crisis. Everything that could go wrong has gone wrong. The economic crisis that started in 2010 was followed by the refugee and Brexit crises, reinforcing scepticism around unity, integration, solidarity and whether mother Europe has the will, and is in a position to care for all its citizens, equally and efficiently.

More and more voices have been raising concerns that instead of nurturing integration, EU accentuates inequalities and contributes to divergence among member states. The fiscal retrenchment programme transformed the Eurozone into a battle between creditors and debtors where the creditors set the conditions that the debtors had to meet, or else. The debtors couldn’t meet those conditions and that created a relationship that is neither voluntary nor equal.

Nevertheless, many of us still believe in the importance, if not necessity, of a united Europe, also as a model of collective intelligence, a central mechanism, a protective umbrella that shields the public good much more effectively than any given nation on its own. The ideas of an open society where nations collaborate with each other through a unified central system and citizens move freely across borders is hugely inspiring and rewarding.

As of recently both ideas contracted CoVid-19.

During the Coronavirus crisis we have seen all EU member states pressing ahead with unilateral measures to stop the spread of coronavirus. The bloc is no longer sitting in the driver's seat. Cooperation looks different in an era of pandemic and the unity of EU members faces a new, painful test. If the bloc fails to stand up to it, the entire project might lose its foundations. Its raison d’etre will cease to exist.

Borders Closing

With the spread of Coronavirus, many European countries have reinstated border checks, and some have even closed their borders altogether, including Denmark and Lithuania. Border controls affect sister countries’ access to medical supplies. The new circumstances bring the Schengen agreement to question. What a paradox when our countries are inextricably linked to each other for supply chains, data, scientific know-how, innovation, and, most of all, access to equipment and medical supplies!

 Social Distancing = Trade Distancing

Precaution measures include self-isolation and social distancing. We must stay inside. We must isolate. We have to stay within our own block, our own borders. Flight bans, border closures. Entire societies, entire countries are now self-isolating, taking their distances. The urgency of the situation has demanded immediate action in an effort the break the nasry virus chain. Inevitably, all positive supply chains will suffer.

Central Non-Decision Making

The EU Commissioners continue to meet every morning in the spirit of taking an EU-wide response. In reality each national government is handling the crisis on its own, prioritising national interests over collective ones. The Lombardy-effect terrified Europe, forcing every country to operate like an island. 

 Handling the Trauma

The traumatic effect that CoVid-19 will leave behind cannot be ignored. When this war-like situation ends, people will feel a profound relief. But people will also mourn their losses. We all remember -and feel gratitude for- those who stood by our side in moments of pain, loss, uncertainty. We all feel resentment towards those who didn't rise up to the occasion.  

In a year’s time, the picture will be clearer. The dust will have settled. Figures on CoVid-19 casualties and cases will be more accurate. We will have a picture of initial fiscal figures reflecting insolvencies, bankruptcies, job losses and unemployment rates in each country as well as on global scale. It will take at least 48 months to be able to see the wider picture and make pragmatic assessments of the CoVid-19 (panic) attack.

It is risky to make any predictions for the future of the EU at the moment. Everything can prove entirely true or just simply false, or misled. I prefer to defer to the EU leaders, and other EU experts, on any predictions. It will be interesting to hear their views down the line.

 Here are four entirely hypothetical scenarios on the impact of CoVid-19 on the EU:

Scenario 1: The crisis reinforces nationalism and the EU’s raison d’etre is lost. The Union weakens significantly in the post CoVid-19 era. More members follow Britain’s example; they opt for exit. The EU continues to exist but has lost real authority and ability to impact.

Scenario 2: The EU revisits its purpose, mission, and Constitution. It eventually reinvents itself into a robust mechanism that designs and delivers coordinated policies and implements solutions on social issues such as the modernisation of public health systems across the Union.

Scenario 3: The EU leaders build an ‘Economic Revival Plan’ consisting of a macro-economic strategy that takes equally into account all EU countries. They introduce support measures and mechanisms that will gradually revive all economies.

Scenario 4: Lessons from the CoVid19 crisis will bring the EU countries closer to each other. Britain asks to re-join the EU. The door is firmly shut. Oh, wait a second, no building behind that door….?

Your take?