COVID-19: Figures Don’t Lie and Liars Figure – And the Figures are Lying to Us

I hope they are right! I hope every media outlet, conspiracy theorist and person afraid of the unknown is right and that the number of COVID-19 cases is greatly under-reported. 

Actually, I don’t have to hope; we know for an absolute fact that the number of “official” cases is lower than reality; maybe by a wide margin. The LA Times has made this claim and even CNN reports that not every person presenting with COVID-19 symptoms is tested by doctors. 

Sadly, even the CDC said not everyone should be tested. 

This is an outrage! If we don’t know the true numbers, we don’t know the truth of our condition. 

If or since it’s obvious not every case of COVID-19 has been or will be reported, where do we stand? 

We are in a much better position than the numbers indicate. This disease is not as dire as it appears. 

Let’s look at the “known” (reported) numbers. As of this writing there are or have been approximately 139,000 reported COVID-19 cases (current and recovered). To date, 2,436 people have died, 2,948 individuals are in serious condition, and 4,430 have recovered. Based on these numbers:

• The death rate for infected individuals is 1.76%;
• Approximately 2.24% of those currently infected are in serious condition; and
• Only 3.19% of those infected have recovered.

 What are the REAL Numbers?

Those vehemently protesting the lack of truthful COVID-19 case reporting haven’t offered an estimate of the actual number of cases. Without an estimate, we have to make assumptions regarding the total number of US cases. But before we make the assumptions, we have no choice but to agree that two data points are not under-reported – the number of deaths and the number of those who are seriously ill. 

Not reporting a COVID-19-related death and/or not reporting a patient made seriously ill by COVID-19 would be a PR nightmare. Further, the press would bring such a massive attack that no administrator would risk under-reporting these numbers. Besides, these numbers make good news. 

So, if the death and serious condition numbers are real, what is the reality of COVID-19 in America? 

Let’s assume the reported number of infected individuals is half the real number of cases. Under this assumption, 278,000 individuals in the US have been infected. If this is the correct number:

• The death rate is 0.88%; and
• The percentage of patients in serious condition is 1.12%.

If only one-third of those actually inflicted with COVID-19 have been reported, then the death rate is 0.585% and only 0.75% of those infected are in serious condition. 

If the actual numbers are higher than these two assumption, the percentages look even better. So, let’s find the true numbers so we know how serious a threat to human life and the healthcare system COVID-19 really is.

This is a matter of perspective based on the reality of the numbers currently presented and the claims of those who say the number of actual cases is much higher than reported. Since the only information we can use is the data, news reports, and claims provided, some assumptions must be made to arrive at specific conclusions.