COVID-19 FFECTS ON SWFL REAL ESTATE MARKET
Season always seems to fly by in #SWFL, #season starts in Autumn when the weather cools and the car carriers arrive in advance of our many seasonal residents. Then, we blink our eyes, and season is wrapping up. We’re never quite prepared for how fast it goes by. Did this seem especially so this year? You bet it did. At the height of season, #travel restrictions, #socialdistancing, and stay at home orders all brought things to a premature close. In #realestate, prior to that point, we were having one of the strongest years in memory. The market was heating up with increasing sales, shortages of inventory in some market segments, and competitive bids becoming more commonplace. By the end of February, year-to-date sales were up 22%, and months of inventory was 5.39 months. Things were good, and both buyers and sellers were reaping the rewards of a robust market.
Back in the Autumn months, as those car carriers started to arrive, I don’t think anyone would have forecasted that our market would come to a near halt at the peak of buying season. And, when it did happen, I don’t know that anyone would have forecasted that early signs of recovery would emerge only 5 weeks later. Yes, we took a hard hit in late March and early April with weekly written sales slowing by as much as 67% compared to last year. But that trend didn’t last long and, since mid-April, showings and sales have been picking up. For the week ending May 10, 635 newly written sales were posted, up 116% from that slowest week, and just 18% shy of last year’s count of 770 sales.
A month ago, as we were still trying to assess how circumstances might impact the Southwest Florida #realestatemarket, we reported that March numbers closed strong, seemingly unaffected. March closed sales were up 15.7% from 2019 and year-to-date sales were up 20%. In that same report, we cautioned that this would not hold true for April. This has proven to be the case, with closed sales for April down 27.4% from last year. Be forewarned that closed sales for May will also fall short. However, granted the current upward trends in showings and newly written sales continue, the severity of year-over-year monthly closed sales shortfalls should subside in coming months.
Along with increases in showings and written sales denoting buyer confidence, we are also seeing evidence of seller confidence. There’s been no surge of price reductions. In fact, the opposite has held true. Between March 15 and May 10, there were 57% fewer price reductions than for the same period last year. Additionally, listing inventory has not increased as some might have predicted. As sales slowed, so too did the pace of new listing activity. Inventory has declined by 8% since February. Now, as the pace of new sales is increasing, so too is the pace of new listings, helping to keep inventory levels in check.
Positive trends evidenced through these numbers reinforce what we are hearing directly from our agents; that buyers who were originally planning to make a purchase in March or early April are reemerging into the marketplace. And that sellers who had suspended their listings are now putting them back on the market to take advantage of the increase in sales.
This begs the question; might we have a second chance at season this year?
#BlairWhiteProperties #JohnRWoodProperties #NaplesFL #Naples #MarcoIsland #BonitaSprings #Estero