COVID-19 could be global re-boot 2020?
The visual and short literature about the history of pandemics from World Economic Forum (https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2020/03/a-visual-history-of-pandemics/) gives an idea about their scale of humanitarian impact. Although the data for COVID-19 is a week old and the counts have doubled during this time, one may wonder how the current status is turning into such a massive economic and potential social crisis despite bigger humanitarian crises in the last 100 years?
Mere social media madness and frenzy? Hyper global nature of today's world? Economic distribution of the spread? Political maneuvering of the situation? China's trade partnership with Europe and US? Europe and America's unpreparedness dealing with infectious diseases in recent decades?
While we guess, this is indeed turning out to be among the most demanding periods for the western economy since WWII. Back of the envelope calculation indicates the 10 most infected countries by number of cases at this time contribute about 55% global GDP. Absolute countrywide lockdowns implemented by governments including the US getting ready for it are economic bombs. Undoing these lockdowns may turn even more difficult if the infection and fatality curves don't flatten - prolonging economic standstill and shocks to demand and supply, stretching beyond April and turning catastrophic. Playbook re-used by central bankers from the financial crisis may not go too far.
It might indeed be a very painful and rough process towards a global hard 're-boot' with changed world order in the post-COVID-19 era, through vaccinations down the line, building 'herd immunity' or accepting this as a new normal.
While many of us remain isolated at homes in these unprecedented times, massive new opportunities will emerge in the post-COVID-19 times. While we wait for the new normal world, until then let's hold it together:
- Thanks to every single front line worker who is out on the streets running the show at twice the effort leaving us safer at home - health care and medical staff, home delivery, house help, local community staff, supermarket staff, police and security personal, transportation and more. A big shout out to all of them.
- Social distancing and hyper hygiene. Avoid falling sick and making others sick. Someone else may need medical care more than you do. Don't put others at risk.
- Locked inside your house, spend the downtime to reflect on fundamental priorities while maintaining mental and physical health to come out of this stronger.
