COVID-19 and the College Admissions Process

Okay...so here goes:

Your ENTIRE approach to college applications has to change and change NOW - not because I say so, but because the COVID-19 pandemic has fundamentally altered the landscape of college admissions for the foreseeable future. Things, are, simply put, different now. Anyone who tells you otherwise is LYING TO YOU. I don’t care if you have three older kids already in college … because things are different now. I don’t care if your neighbor claims to be an expert on college … because things are different now. I don’t care if you attend a school that employs 23 college advisors with a combined 947 years of admissions experience … because things are different now.

A confluence of circumstances – which began with the fallout from the 2008 mortgage crisis and has been exacerbated by the COVID-19 outbreak – means that YOUR college selection and application process will look almost NOTHING like the process that students in prior years went through.

The simple fact of the matter that in response to the 2008 mortgage crisis, a large percentage of the American middle class (and even the American upper-middle class) essentially stopped saving for college, and I mean STOPPED. Enrollments in education IRAs (tax-deferred savings accounts for college and graduate school savings) and 529 Plans (another type of tax-deferred savings plan) fell following the “Great Recession” and have never recovered. And, at the same time that fewer Americans were saving for college, the colleges themselves (especially the private ones) busied themselves with the task of RAISING their annual tuitions to ungodly levels.

Between 2008 and 2015, the tuition at UM, Tulane, Emory, GW, Williams, Georgetown and about 800 other schools DOUBLED. Between 2015 and 2020, it DOUBLED AGAIN. Unless you can run the 40 yard dash in 4.34 seconds, earn a considerable merit-based scholarship (need-based scholarships are a lie … they simply don’t really exist anymore – which is a topic for a later email/video) or have a GINORMOUS trust fund because your grandfather invented the color blue, private colleges became essentially unaffordable (especially if you want to go to grad school) in about 2012. Why else would 61,000 people apply to Florida State??? FSU is an improving school with some good programs (financial engineering, political science, dance) … but 61,000 applicants to a school best known for cheating at football?!?!?!

IT'S ABOUT THE MONEY.

Fortunately for most of us, the US economy improved steadily between 2011 and 2016 (and even more robustly between 2017 and 2019), and increasing numbers of Americans had good jobs. By the end of 2019, more Americans were employed than ever before. Last year, real wages (wages adjusted to inflation and cost of living) for the American middle class improved by more than they had since 1984.

But this economic growth was actually BAD news for colleges. You see, in a good economy, many people will either put off college, leave college early or enter the workforce right out of high school (or after military service) to take advantage of good wages. So, once the economy began to improve, college (especially ridiculously overpriced colleges that do little more that allow you to purchase a useless credential while providing little in the way of meaningful skill or training) saw fewer and fewer enrollments.

Last fall, the nation’s unduplicated college enrollments dipped below 18 million, a decline of more than 2 million students since its peak in 2011.

Now you would think that colleges, being full of “smart” people, would have responded to diminishing enrollments by lowering tuition … or at least slowing the rate of tuition increases. Well, you would be wrong. Instead of economizing, reducing tuition or enhancing the value of their programs by investing in more and better professors, colleges went the other way. They INCREASED the rates at which they were raising tuition. They were hiring huge numbers of administrators instead of teachers (professors now make up only about 35-40% of the staffs of most colleges now). They were hiring celebrity chefs. They were expanding academically dubious programs. They were hiring celebrity chefs to design student menus. And, of course, they were building palatial new buildings to accommodate all of these new administrators.

How did they get away with this? Simple … they spent (and continue to spend) a TON of money on lobbyists. The American higher education establishment responded to declining enrollments by going to Congress year after year and getting it (and the Department of Education) to authorize higher and higher amounts for federal student loan guarantees. They basically asked US to pay for THEIR stupidity and fecklessness. My friends in admissions, on Capitol Hill – I have a TON of former students serving on various staffs – and the Department of Education (as some of you remember they offered me a job back in 2017) told me that last week the lobbyists from higher education were EVERYWHERE … begging to be a part of the COVID-19 Stimulus. What a disgrace.

But here is where things get tricky. There is NO question that this pandemic WILL have an adverse impact on the overall economy and on the ability of many Americans to pay for expensive private schools. There is also NO question that the economic growth will slow (the economy may even contract for a time), that wages will stagnate and that people will have to dip into their savings to pay for housing, food, utilities and transportation.

You know what people do when the economy slows and wages stagnate? Well, THEY GO TO COLLEGE. Seriously. That is what they do. They make sacrifices, take loans, work part time jobs and they build the skills that will make them in-demand when the economy improves (and it WILL improve … it ALWAYS does). The last three major economic downturns ALL saw dramatic increases in college applications and enrollments – especially at state schools.

So, as you begin the process of applying to college, please know that you are facing some challenges. There will be MORE people applying to college this year than there have been in perhaps the last eight. There will be FAR MORE people applying to UF, UCF, FSU, USF, FAU, FIU, UNF, UWF and FGCU than EVER before. I would not be at all surprised if FSU gets 75,000 applicants (the school is ALREADY over-enrolled so that means that they will reject as many as 67,000 people), nor would I be surprised if UF and UCF to 60,000 applicants.

This means that we have to be VERY good this year … even at “safety” schools. Your essays had better by ON-POINT (if you write your essay about the corona virus, I will personally urinate into a clear plastic bag, drive to your house and pour the contents of the bag on to your leg … and so will at least 12 people I have spoken to at college admissions offices around the country). You had better be careful with your choice of school and your choice of major. You had better ignore Naviance, stop following the crowd and start listening to ME!!!

Too many of you (parents included) are going for the easy and obvious choices. STOP DOING THIS..not for the sake of my happiness or my sanity (BOTH of those ships sailed years ago and I got on board NEITHER of them).

Instead, do this for YOU. This is your chance to exercise a little" enlightened self interest" (being able to quote de Tocqueville from memory is one of the many benefits of a great education...and not knowing who de Tocqueville was basically means that you are doing life WRONG).

Now, that is enough of the bad news. Here is the good news … and it starts with this:

WE CAN DO THIS.

I have been doing this for a long time, in good economic times and in bad. I do not rest on my laurels; instead, I continue to read, research and learn. I rely on data, not anecdotes. I look at outcomes, not advertisements. In short, this whole horrible situation is why I am here … to get you through it and get you in the college you need at the price you can manage.

This is how we do it. We ask critical questions and we find the answers.

QUESTION 1 – What is the average score that recent graduates have attained on the LSAT and/or MCAT?

Ideal Answer: MCAT 514, LSAT 159

 Acceptable Answer: MCAT 505, LSAT 150

 When to Worry: MCAT below 501 LSAT below 147

 Why the answer matters:

If you think undergraduate institutions are competitive, just wait until you apply to law school or medical school. Standardized test scores are even more critical to your admission prospects at the graduate school level than they are at the university level. By in large, your performance on these tests will determine where - and whether - you attend professional school.

There are fewer than 200 medical schools in the United States. Admission to such a small pool of seats is determined – to a very great extent - on your performance on the MCAT. We researched the admissions criteria for every accredited medical school in the United States and found that an MCAT score of 508 is essentially required for entry.

I believe that an average MCAT score of 505 indicates that a college provides its students with the academic foundation and resources to foster success on the MCAT. While a score of 505 will probably not get the average student into a medical school, one must realize that a university cannot control which of its students sit for a test. It is inevitable that some students will simply not be sufficiently prepared – through no fault of the university – to perform well on the test.

However, a university cannot charge close to a quarter of a million dollars and not have some measure of accountability. An MCAT score of below 501 demonstrates several potential problems - things that should raise a red flag even for students who have no interest in STEM fields. First and foremost, a poor MCAT average indicates that students at that school lack preparation in such fundamental areas as chemistry, biology and reading comprehension.

Second, a poor MCAT average indicates that the university may not be doing an adequate job counseling its students on what career paths may be suitable given their level of academic preparation. This sort of inadequacy should even give future elementary education majors cause for concern.

Not everyone is cut out for medical school. Science majors may find rewarding careers in dentistry, optometry or have fulfilling lives as researchers or physicians’ assistants. While colleges cannot counsel all of their students or choose their career paths, we do believe that – given the high cost of tuition and fees – the institutions do bear some responsibility for providing guidance to the young adults who pay them. It is abundantly clear that a great many institutions fail utterly in this regard.

As for the LSAT, a score below 155 does not condemn a prospective law student to a career spent in drudgery. At the same time, however, the elite institutions (and the elite jobs) simply require scores in the top 10 percent (at worst) for admission. Unlike at the college level, an applicant cannot make up for a poor LSAT score with a strong resume.

Poor LSAT scores by test takers from a particular university are not necessarily attributable to poor preparation by the university itself. Invariably, there will be students at even the best schools who do not prepare adequately for the LSAT. But once again, an overabundance of such poorly prepared students can be an indication that the university itself struggles with instruction in key areas or has not made a real investment in guidance.

More importantly, the standardized test scores for graduate school are a reflection of the type of student who attends a particular university, of the level of preparation that the university provides in such core areas as science and critical thinking,and of the university’s commitment to the academic and professional well-being of its students. Always keep in mind that LSAT and MCAT scores are not the only - or even the primary - factor that you should consider when evaluating a prospective college. It should just be a part of the evaluation process.

QUESTION 2 – What percentage of students from this university find employment or are accepted into graduate school within six months of graduation, and, for those employed, what is the median starting salary?

Ideal Answer: 80% employed or in graduate school and a $65,000 median salary

Acceptable Answer: 70% employed or in school and a $46,000 median salary

When to Worry: below 65% employed or in school and below $35,000 median salary

Why the answer matters: Theoretically, students pursue post-secondary education to develop their minds and become well-rounded and thoughtful individuals. Of course, theoretically communism is the ideal system for social and economic organization. In other words, “theoretically” is not our guidepost.

The truth of the matter is that most people attend college to enhance their ability to provide for themselves and their families. They hope to emerge from college prepared with a skill set that will allow them to pursue a career that is financially and intellectually rewarding.

We are not suggesting that colleges or universities have an affirmative duty to help their students find jobs or gain admission to graduate school. At the same time, however, low rates of employment (and grad school admission) among recent graduates can be a troubling sign. Poor performance in this regard indicates that the school is not producing the type of graduates who appeal to businesses - or to graduate and professional schools.

Moreover, poor performance in hiring and grad school admission may indicate that the university is not truly committed to the total well-being of its student body. These schools are simply not doing an adequate job of assisting students in the development the types of skills – particularly in the areas of critical thinking and written communication – that enable these students to market themselves in the work force or to graduate and professional schools.

Median salary is also a crucial element in the process of evaluating a university. A higher median salary indicates that graduates are meaningfully employed in jobs that place a premium on critical thinking and a college education. It is one thing for a graduate to be employed at an Apple store. It is a far more significant however for a recent graduate to be employed as an engineer in Apple’s products development program.

QUESTION 3 – Who is interviewing and hiring graduates from this university?

Ideal Answer: Stable, innovative companies like Goldman Sachs or Apple, and government agencies such as the CIA, NSA and State Department

Acceptable Answer: Traditional workhorse firms like Ford Motor Company, IBM and government agencies such as the FBI and GSA

When to Worry: Local firms in unstable markets or those offering limited prospects for career growth.

Why the answer matters: One can learn a great deal about a school by exploring the types of companies and government agencies that recruit its graduates. Recruiters that value innovation and critical thinking (traits that are sought after by top law schools as well) will look for the best minds and will actively pursue them on campuses across North America. Make sure that your school is a place that these recruiters visit. It is an indication that grads the school are in demand with decision makers.

Of course, it is true that you can get into Harvard Law 0or Chicago’s MBA program from virtually any school in the United States. At the same time, you want your undergraduate years to prepare you to not merely get into law school or medical school or at a promising start-up, but rather to excel once you get your foot in the door. Therefore, go to a school that is going to help you enhance your critical thinking and writing skills. Schools valued by top employers are generally able to do that.

QUESTION 4 – Does the school have a mentoring program for undergraduates:

Ideal Answer: The school has an extensive mentoring program with active participation from the faculty, alumni and members of the local business and professional communities.

Acceptable Answer: The school provides opportunities for mentoring with members of the faculty and the alumni community

When to worry: The school has no program or offers mentoring on an ad hoc basis

Why the answer matters: We fully believe that a student should accept responsibility for his or her own education. At the same time, the evidence strongly suggests that mentoring can be an essential ingredient in that education. Colleges have – or should have - the resources and the desire to facilitate mentoring programs in a wide variety of academic disciplines.

A lack of a viable mentoring program suggests some troubling signs. First, it is an indication that the institution in question is not actively engaging its alumni or the surrounding community, sources generally provide an abundant supply of individuals willing and able to serve as mentors to eager students who wish to learn about a profession.

Second, the lack of a mentor program is an indication that an institution may not be fully committed to its student population. Mentoring programs require little to no investment by the institution itself; the school simply serves as a conduit to facilitate relationships between its students and the larger university community. An institution unwilling to take even that limited step is one that needs to seriously evaluate its priorities.

Additionally, for those considering law school, a mentoring program can provide a future attorney with some important advantages. Specifically , it can put you in touch with some important contacts in the legal community. These contacts can come in handy when it is time to apply to law school or apply for an internship or for a solid letter of recommendation. 

5 – What percent of classes have written exams versus multiple-choice tests:

Ideal Answer: 90% written 10% multiple choice

Acceptable Answer: 75% written 25% multiple choice

When to worry: below 65% written

Why the answer matters: I can’t say for sure, but I are fairly comfortable asserting that nobody has ever been fired from a job or denied admission to a graduate program for being an effective writer. I can say the same thing about having effective critical thinking skills.

In short, there is no downside to being intelligent.

In more pragmatic terms, several recent surveys of American business have revealed a shortage of individuals with effective communication skill and critical thinking skills (which are generally the same thing). The individual who develops these skills at the college level will become an indispensable asset to his or her future employer - and will have a far easier time coping with the pressures of the first year of law school or plugging away at Goldman Sachs.

The simple fact of the matter is that multiple choice exams, by in large, test little more that the ability to memorize and regurgitate facts. This is not skill in high demand - either in the business world or in law school (though first year of med school IS basically one really long multiple choice test). The ability to assess a problem and present a solution in clear and easy to follow terms however is a vital skill that is – and will probably always be – in high demand … particularly in the legal community and in journalism

6 – What percent of courses are offered online?

Ideal Answer: None

Acceptable Answer: 5%

When to worry: 10% or higher

Why the answer matters: I view the explosion of online course offerings at America’s colleges and universities as a sign of the apocalypse. Seriously. I thought that the trend toward assigning group projects was bad sign; this online phenomenon is just awful. How is deep learning facilitated? How is the exchange of ideas and perspectives enhanced by reading materials online? Better still, how exactly does one benefit from the social diversity of the university community when everyone is taking classes at a computer terminal off campus?

Online courses FOR COLLEGE STUDENTS (grad school and skill programs are different) are, simply put, inconsistent with a useful and productive university experience. Yes, they are convenient, and they tend to be a bit easier than traditional courses, but they are NOT going to help you long-term.

7 – What percent of students major in business?

Ideal Answer: 10% or lower

Acceptable Answer: 15%

When to worry: 20% or greater

Why the answer matters: It may seem counter-intuitive but all students, and especially prospective business majors, should seek schools that have as few business students as possible. We are not entirely certain if there is a causative or correlative relationship between academic excellence at a school and the small size of its business programs (we have a hunch that it’s a bit of both), but there is no denying that the relationship exists.

As an unabashed capitalist, I love business school. At the same time, I realize that it may not provide you, especially at the undergraduate level, with enough exposure to extensive reading and writing.

What I am saying is that if you intend to major in business (whether by choice of because your parents won’t pay for something “impractical” like say art history) and go to grad school, you should supplement your business core with a healthy dose of courses in literature, history, art history, philosophy, religion and the like. These courses will take you out of your comfort zone (just like the first year of law school will) and will help you to develop and enhance your critical reading and persuasive writing skills.

We hope you found this information useful and we encourage you to use it to supplement your own research into the colleges you are considering.

There we have it. This is how we begin. We ask important questions, and we evaluate the answers.

So, since you can’t go on any college visits, we can do something better – we can find the answers together!!!

See you soon,

SEAN