COVID-19: Cloudy Short-term, Clear Long-term

Cloudy

• Epidemiological models contain multiple variables, but they all rely on some variable to address reproductive or transmission rate (e.g., R0). The models are extremely sensitive to estimates/assumptions of what R0 is.
• No one knows what R0 is for this novel SARS-CoV-2 virus with any reasonable degree of accuracy. And for this unique virus, it may differ substantially between symptomatic and asymptomatic people.
• Social distancing does decrease R0.
• The novel SARS-CoV-2 virus is unstable and mutating constantly. That could be a good thing (it could diminish on its own) or a bad thing (it could become more harmful or infectious)
• Getting back to normal will require some combination of (1) immunity (via large scale infection-and-recovery or vaccine) and (2) testing to track and contain smaller outbreaks. Regardless of how many test kits can be designed (e.g., by Abbott) there is likely to be a massive supply chain bottle neck (e.g., for the reagents necessary for PCR tests).

Thus, no one can accurately predict how things are going to proceed (e.g., how many weeks or months until the epidemic is curtailed). Not the right, not the left.

Clear

• A vaccine alone will not solve this in the near term. Vaccines take time to approve, even under aggressive timelines and regulatory fast-tracking. Further, once approved, vaccine production will likely suffer supply chain problems as the entire globe demands them.
• Without a vaccine that can be mass-produced on a global scale, outbreaks are going to recur. And even with a mass-produced vaccine, SARS-CoV-2 is only one part of a family of viruses (Coronavirus) that we (humanity) are stuck with.
• Social distancing may be required intermittently--though hopefully not under nearly as severe restrictions--at various times for the foreseeable future.

Predictions

1. Businesses should use this period and the coming interregnum to adapt and perfect remote functionality (e.g., work-from-home capability) as a permanent part of their business.
2. Investments in biometric tracking technology will jump.
3. Consumer attention will focus increasingly on health and reducing comorbidities that stress the body's immune system.