The Covid-19 Belmont Stakes by Mark Shrager

It should not be necessary to discuss here in detail the events leading up to Saturday’s Grade 1, $1,000,000, mile-and-an-eighth Belmont Stakes. We have all been affected by the coronavirus pandemic that continues to shape our daily existence; we are all aware of the shutdowns or crowd-free meetings at our local racetracks; we have all adjusted our calendars to reflect the postponement to September of the Kentucky Derby and the Preakness. We can all understand why this year’s Belmont Stakes was postponed to June 20 and shortened to a mile-and-an-eighth. We may not like it much, but we do understand it.

There have been past Belmont Stakes contested at this year’s nine-furlong distance, but one has to search back 126 years to find Comanche and Henry of Navarre’s victories of 1893 and ’94. Hopefully, none of us will ever again see the Belmont Stakes at so abbreviated a distance, let alone as the first jewel of the Triple Crown.

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Mark Shrager and Diane Crump team up to tell the inspiring story of the first woman to ride in the Kentucky Derby in Diane Crump: A Horse-Racing Pioneer’s Life in the Saddle, now available at Amazon.com and other on-line booksellers. Mark Shrager’s first book, The Great Sweepstakes of 1877, is also available in hardcover or paperback from Amazon.com and other on-line sources.

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But for this one year, it is the Belmont Stakes that leads off the parade of Triple Crown races, and that historic event is scheduled for this coming Saturday, June 20. Who are the contenders and how will the race be run? Let’s take a look.

The 2020 Belmont Stakes drew ten entrants, and is likely to be contested on a fast track on what will probably be a warm, muggy day. As this is being written, forecasts are for clouds and possible thunderstorms, with 82-degree temperatures and a two percent chance of precipitation. Reading that as a 98% likelihood of NO precipitation, I am going to handicap the race for a fast track.

For the record, however, I would note briefly that Max Player broke his maiden over a sloppy track, and Modernist won a maiden event over a track surface labeled “good.” Farmington Road was a close second in April’s muddy Oaklawn Stakes, Jungle Runner ran a dismal eighth in his only try in the mud, and Tiz the Law was a close third in the mud, enduring his only defeat, in last year’s Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes. None of the others have ever competed on anything but a fast track.

A glance at the past performances, and we can make some quick eliminations. Tap It to Win has been badly beaten in both of his stakes efforts; Modernist never looked dangerous in March’s Grade 2 Louisiana Derby. Farmington Road has never been a factor in his two fast track stakes efforts, Fore Left was defeated by 31 lengths in his only try beyond a mile and has earned a Beyer Speed Rating higher than 80 just once in eight American starts; and Jungle Runner’s Beyers – his best has been a 66 – place him well behind the other entrants.

I am also not a fan of Max Player, which won the Grade 3 Withers Stakes in February and hasn’t raced since. Given his abysmal times thus far – his clocking for the 1 1/8-mile Withers, over a fast track, was 1:53 4/5 - he’ll need to improve spectacularly before he can be considered a serious Belmont Stakes contender. After 4 ? months away from the races, the chances of this are slim.

The remaining four entrants seem to sort themselves into two groups: Sole Volante, Dr. Post and Pneumatic, which appear fairly evenly matched; and Tiz the Law, whose past performances place him a notch or two above the others.

Sole Volante is a model of consistency, with six in-the-money performances, including four wins, in six lifetime starts. His 2 ?-length victory in February’s Sam F. Davis Stakes at Tampa Bay Downs was impressive. He returned to the races with a victory just ten days ago following a 3-month layoff, running a mile at Gulfstream Park in a sparkling 1:34 4/5. He has no early speed, but if Tap It to Win, Fore Left and Pneumatic cut out a fast enough pace, he should be charging hard at the finish.

Todd Pletcher trainee Dr. Post has two wins in his three lifetime outings, with heavy wagering support in every start. He’s the Belmont’s “X” Factor: maybe he’s a soon-to-be stakes star; maybe he’s just another nicely-bred, precocious 3-year-old. He won a $75,000 handicap in Florida in April, running a so-so 1:43 mile-and-a-sixteenth. On Saturday, he gets tested for class.

Pneumatic was a nice third after pushing the pace throughout the Grade 3 Matt Winn Stakes at Churchill Downs five weeks ago. He had won both of his previous starts from near the lead, and it would be no surprise to see him reserved just off the Belmont’s early pace, and flying home late. The Steven Asmussen trainee is a definite contender.

The likeliest winner, however, is Tiz the Law (pictured), which is 4-for-5 lifetime and undefeated on fast tracks. He owns two Grade 1 victories, last year’s Champagne Stakes by four lengths and the Florida Derby in March by four and a quarter. He’s coming off a three-month layoff, but he won the Grade 3 Holy Bull after two months away, broke his maiden last August at first asking, and seems able to turn in a big effort without the need for a prep race. His odds will be short, but any handicapping win, even at less than ideal odds, is always preferable to a loss.

It doesn’t seem a difficult handicapping task, until you get to the runner-up spot. Let’s call it this way: (1) Tiz the Law; (2) Sole Volante; (3) Pneumatic; and (4) Dr. Post. All four will be on my exacta tickets.