Covid-19 was bad for business. The HR tidal wave to follow it may be worse.

Imagine you’re on a long car ride. You pull into a gas station for your first break in many hours. There’s one bathroom. You all have to go. Who gets to go? Is it fair? 

With uncertainty and anxiety at historic levels, many employees (especially information workers) opted to forego both travel AND career moves during Covid-19. Now that vaccines are providing a powerful boost of protection and hope, businesses are about to experience another wave. It may not be a wave of new cases, but it will almost certainly be a wave of resignations, some terminations, and a hell of a lot of vacations.

Hospitals had to brace for packed emergency rooms. The next group to brace themselves will be HR managers and recruiters. This isn’t going to be pretty.

It took months for some people just to move back home while they sorted out the new “work from home” model that so many businesses adopted. Because of all the turmoil, many delayed their career decisions, while many companies suspended actively hiring while they waited to see what kind of revenue and sales forecasts they could muster. Layoffs were relatively easy, but resignations were sparse. It may have been easy to interview for other jobs from the comfort of your bedroom, but you didn’t really get much of a “feel” for the new prospective employer. So what now?

Job Changes

Now we get an accumulated YEAR’S worth of pent-up frustration, demand, annoyance, lack of developmental growth for many. Micromanagers from pre-Covid-19 had their work cut out for them when everyone was remote. This led many to micromanage even more. The result? A large number of people unhappy and considering leaving their jobs.

But there are fewer jobs. So that, too, has put many plans on hold while people cling to a “known suboptimal” instead of the prospect of a better but unknown alternative.

Expect more short outages throughout the day from your remote staff while they kick the tires on other firms. “Yes, you can be 100% remote” will be the new perk, though this will prove to be very challenging for human resources as well: some people will literally “double-dip” and accept multiple jobs without telling the other employers. If they never come in, they may just be able to pull it off. Some people with substance abuse issues that would otherwise be caught or fired for improper behavior in the workplace will now be more able to work completely high or drunk. While addiction is considered a protected, medical situation in many states, the old interventions of “dude, you reek, go home and take a sick day” will be harder to pull off over Zoom.

Expect a few sales prospects to say “I don’t know how to tell you this but your sales rep was slurring their words on the demo.”

So there will be increased bad behavior: more ghosting (easier when it’s all remote), even less notice than the disintegrating traditional “two weeks”, and rampant turnover. It won’t be that people are due to leave, it will be that they’re all doing it seemingly at the same time. That’s the problem with the road trip: everyone needs the bathroom by the time you get to the gas station. We’ve all been holding it in for a year.

Vacations

Oh, you’re eager to go on vacation? Really? You don’t say. People are completely focused on how stir crazy they’ve been, how their previous trip got canceled, how they missed their niece’s birth, or their cousin’s wedding, or a loved one’s funeral. They forget that nearly everyone has been in the same boat, just not on a boat. We ALL want to get out and vacation. Businesses can’t just suddenly say ok to everyone, though. This is going to be a logistical nightmare. It’s just not practical for everyone who wants to take their “I really need one” vacation at the same time this year, and we’re already a third of the way through the year.

What to do?

Job Changes

• Keep an open dialog with your boss. It’s not terrible to be thinking about a change, but springing a “hey, I’m leaving” on a business that’s been hanging on for dear life is kind of brutal
• Ask your current employer about your future. Depending on your industry and company health, they will understandably be cautious about being able to claim when things may get back to normal. Even if they can’t provide the timing, ask them to reiterate or update you on the path forward.
• Be careful about recruiting solely by Zoom — try to talk to multiple people at companies and not just a recruiter or hiring manager: it’s harder to get a vibe when not walking the halls of an organization

Vacations

• Give plenty of advance notice. Give general “I’m still working out the dates but thinking between ___ and ____” and work WITH the office team to make it less impactful
• Don’t presume that just because you’ve accumulated days off that you can take them whenever you want. The “but I already bought the tickets” line doesn’t work on every HR executive. It’s also uncool to do without a proper approval.
• Show your flexibility (if you can afford to be flexible with your plans) — don’t be shy about advertising this: it’s commendable, and you should be thanked (or even rewarded) for making it easier on the company
• Meet with your team, work together to make vacations work for EVERYONE. You don’t want to come back from vacation having your coworkers seething at you because they got stuck with all your work.

Getting back to work is great, but small and medium-sized businesses are about to experience an absolute tsunami of resignations and vacation requests. Too little has happened at the office over the last year for this not to happen. It doesn’t have to be this awful, but it’s going to require your team coming together and bracing for the impact.