COVID-19 and alternate mode of mass transportation

While menace of COVID-19 pandemic prevails, and internet (esp. WhatsApp) is completely clueless sending doom-and-gloom signals every minute from all-across the world, one thing crossed my mind: Is there a way to ascertain potential probability of reduced contagion for a given “N” km travel with various modes of mass transportation?

A well-established pattern across all regions on need to use transportation:

1-     Maximum travel density intra-city (10km to 100km)

2-     Second, inter-city with proximity of 100km to 300km

3-     Third, inter-state 300km-500km

4-     Fourth, inter-region, intra-country 500km -1200km,

5-     Finally, inter-country, say for example 1200km and beyond

While cities around the world have different types of Infrastructure set-up for the first, inter-city transportation requirements, majority of regions on earth for inter-city, and inter-state, transportation have almost similar modes, namely (a) Roads for cars and buses, (b) Rail, (c) Waterway (where applicable), and (d) Air

Leave aside self-driven cars, quantum of which as percentage of total traffic varies among developed and developing nations, use of mass transport such as buses, rail, waterway (if any, for the region), and air form a large portion of total traffic for inter-city and inter-state transport needs. Travel time between similar-distances vary between countries (for example, for a distance of approx. 100Miles, Mumbai to Pune in India, Railways take around 4hrs, while Amtrak, a US equivalent of Indian Railways, takes around 4hrs to cover more than double the distance e.g. 212Miles, NYC Penn Station to Boston South Station). Similar comparable exist in bus travel times as well: 100Miles Mumbai to Pune, buses take around 3.5hrs, while 205Miles between Newton, MA to NYC Penn Station, takes ~3hrs45min).

Enter high-speed surface transport infrastructure, "entry-exit controlled, point-to-point direct to destination" travel, for example hyperloop. Every hour saved in mass transport system reduces the potential contagion. Let’s take the same example discussed above, time to travel between Mumbai and Pune for 100,000 PAX using existing mass transport every day, in a group of 20-30 (bus) to 90-100 (train, per coach), sitting for around 4hrs travel time together, translates to 400,000 hours together per day. Compared that to a hyperloop system, 100,000 PAX every day, in a group of say 24 to 50, sitting together for around 22min travel time, that makes 36,667 hours together per day.

While I am not an expert to ascertain an accurate probability of reduction of contagion due to reduced 'together time', I strongly argue that total “together time” reduction of >90% in my opinion indeed is expected to reduce potential contagion. What tangible, or intangible, dollar benefit this reduced contagion might generate, is there for the experts to qualify and quantify, and if that benefit turns out to be large enough value, coupled with other economic-and-social benefits of high speed surface transportation, would then a safe, secure, well tested "fifth" mode of transportation "hyperloop" be an answer to rapidly growing 'impatient younger generation', and for the future generations? Time is a good teacher.

Appreciate your comments, thoughts and inputs.

Stay safe. Stay strong. God Bless

Amanullah, Mumbai, India