COVID-19 Aftermath… PESTLEG Model

Right now COVID-19 is about to explode – as so-called free economies like the US and Europe seek to contain the virus – People rightfully are concerned about its impact but I have seen nothing on its aftermath…

All we know is the nature of the Virus is that it is proving fatal in the super-elderly and infirm. How contagious it is unknown thanks to the containment measures – So even though 80,000 people in Wuhan out of 11,000,000 is very small the stats are distorted.

My personal conjecture is that COVID-19 will not see 40% of the countryside decimated like the Black Death or tens of millions like the Spanish Flu. Rather we will save those lives by a sustained period of over-cautious containment – That experience of quasi self-isolation will be a wake-up call potentially for the good.

To this end I have knocked up a rudimentary PESTLEG study on COVID-19 – for when we can look back safe in the knowledge that a vaccine exists and the disease is either history or a seasonal flare up like normal flu!

I learned PESTLEG while studying for an MBA and it instantly reminded me of best practice value-add in Sales - rather than discuss the minutae of the wiring of a widget it makes sense to identify the bottom line gain, if the business case looks positive then work out if the effort and expense of getting there is worth it..

Sadly most Sales People work from a script and most MBA folk cannot sell, so I hope my hybrid pedigree will make my analysis thought provoking.

Another comparison is the year 2000 challenge – Prior to the year 2000 IT was all powerful and was an automatic spend. It then disappeared and spent years checking its 20 to 30 year old code. In 2001 and the dust had settled, IT asked for its usual hand-out and the business rightly said, hey we survived for a year while you were checking internal dates so justify your existence.

Anyway, here goes and thank you for reading...

PESTLEG

Political, Economic, Social, Legal, Environmental and Global

Political

·       Debate on public health

·       Mass vaccinations

·       Debates on hygiene / cultural

·       Debates about genetic mutation / weapons

·       Racism and bigotry

Economic (Practices)

·       Less Commuting

·       Less flying

·       Even less high street / physical shopping

·       Increased warehouse / home Delivery based retail

·       Longer quarantine / Disinfectant on imports

·       New Insurance products like Volcano protection

Economic (Economy)

·       Produce some stuff locally albeit at a higher price – Jobs, Prices, Profits

·       Less spending on petty consumer goods

·       Turbulent investment markets

·       Turbulent oil and commodity markets

Economy (Health spend)

·       Lower life expectancy means less welfare / Pension spend!

·       Rapid response expense to outbreaks / mutations

·       Additional vaccination

Social (Life)

·       Working from home

·       Less trade shows

·       Less public events

·       Less overseas holidays

·       Less hand shaking!

Social (Health)

·       More personal cleaning

·       More deep cleaning

·       More in-situ health checks

·       Stock-piles of disaster management items

·       Lower life expectancy (Controversial)

·       Desanitising pods at public spaces

Technological

·       More virtual events

·       More viewing remotely

·       More on-line chats

·       More videos conferences

·       More virtual socialising

·       Home delivery acceleration

Legal

·       Law cases

Environmental

·       Climate Change – Aerial photos of China having the lowest pollution for years

·       Supply Chain A – Local production reduces shipping

·       Supply Chain B - Greener production as not hidden from view 10,000 miles away

·       Infrastructure – Less travel means less pressure on roads, rail and airport.

Global

·       Border checks

·       Racism and Bigotry (again)

·       Barriers on certain foods and drugs

·       International co-operation

·       International monitoring

Hope you found the above interesting and gave you some ideas on making the most of an unfolding situation - There will be opportunities from this, honest!

Love to hear your thoughts and additions...