Covid-19 3rd wave projections - INDIA

The world is ravaged by the Omicron wave. Europe and US have seen an exponential rise in the last one month. US is the hardest hit with a seven-day average of half a million cases (500,000). The South African variant has now hit India, especially the populous cities of Mumbai & Delhi. Both these cities had in 2021 April-May experienced a disastrous 2nd wave.

The silver lining to this Omicron wave has been that there has been very low hospitalisations and deaths. Even though it is spreading like wildfire, the symptoms are very mild and the recovery very quick.

The wave has now officially started in Mumbai and Delhi. Though the numbers have surpassed the daily highs of the 2nd wave, the impact has not been too bad. This mild flu like wave is threatening to break all records in India. I had earlier successfully predicted the 2nd wave numbers and have used the same model to extrapolate the 3rd wave in India.

It is projected that the daily cases in Mumbai can possibly touch 1,80,000 and at the national level around 50 lakhs (5,000,000)! Though these numbers are horrifying to see, India would be able to see through this wave with limited adverse impact.

What is needed by people is to follow Covid Appropriate Behaviour (CAB) and adhere to the guidelines as laid down by the state & central government. The government will need to start enforcing these guidelines strictly from their side. The way forward would be to continue with restrictions without any lockdown. This is the new normal.

Hopefully this wave will change the pandemic to an endemic!