Covid-19: The 10pm Killer?

Where does the beleaguered hospitality sector go from here? This week’s fiasco has witnessed a blame game on Covid transmission rates and who is responsible, more changes to the rules around groups and the introduction of curfews. It will mark the death knell for some operators; for others it will be the final straw in what is turning into the longest and hardest battle to keep hospitality businesses going. 

If we really believe the hospitality sector is to blame for the spike in Covid cases, then let’s close it down totally, either provide the support required or don’t, roll the dice and let’s see what happens. The millions of jobs lost, an unfortunate consequence, the lack of tax income an issue but at least the virus is gone. Main problem? The virus won’t have gone. 

The statistics simply don’t support the argument that hospitality is to blame: only 5% of cases are linked to the sector, and tinkering around hours just makes it impossible for some venues to continue working profitably. Now, I’m no doctor, but I am pretty sure the virus doesn’t only operate after 10pm. So, the curfew won’t cure the pandemic, but cynically allows the government to claim the sector is open and doesn’t need support anymore.

If we are going to selectively use some statistics and not others, we have no hope of a joined up co-ordinated response. I don’t blame the scientists - they have one focus and interpret the data as they see fit. To a certain extent, the government are in a no win situation, but a lack of decisive action one way or another will invariably mean a less effective result for any action, a longer recovery or a longer, slower lingering death for businesses.

These are the days of mixed messages: Eat Out to Help Out one week, Drink Up and Bugger Off Early the next; go to the office, don’t go to the office; whatever you do don’t use public transport but don’t drive into cities either. This merely serves to confuse the consumer and in many cases introduce a significant fear factor.

As I cancelled a planned half term holiday, the lady at the airline suggested I rebook for next summer as hopefully it would be better by then, and here lies the issue: there is no end date, there is no line to work towards so we have to adapt, plan, take precautions with what we know. The hospitality sector is amazing: Creative, innovative, caring, not to mention a huge employer and contributor and already I have seen examples of venues shifting patterns in effect dragging the evening forward. Maybe we will end like the USA where everyone seems to eat their evening meal at 5pm, maybe Martini lunches will make a comeback! But…there do need to be venues left to host the consumers. These venues need a framework to work within, and support if local environmental issues dictate drastic action or full closure.

We all agree we need to protect the vulnerable in society. We know we need to show respect and take basic precautions and mask wearing isn’t the biggest ask ever. But I, for one, can’t understand the 10pm curfew achieving this or in truth having a meaningful effect on the R rate but then I am not an expert. 

We have steered Mangrove to the best of our ability, kept our team on board thanks to their flexibility and understanding. I felt pretty positive at the beginning of the week and from a selfish perspective still do. We know we will still be here for years to come, we have to work hard and continue to evolve and adapt but we have a very solid base from which to work. I feel for my friends who are operators in the sector, who risk seeing their life’s work disappear, I feel for all of those who may need to find an alternative career and for something they have not caused yet something they appear to be paying a very heavy price. For hospitality, Covid-19 may very well be a 10pm killer.