Country Risk Analysis for the inauguration of Ecuador's new Government

Introduction

Amid the excitement surrounding the inauguration of Ecuador's new government, led by President-elect Daniel Noboa, it is crucial to conduct a comprehensive analysis of the country's accelerated risk degradation in recent years. This article will explore the current risk level, quantify vulnerabilities and threats left by departing President Guillermo Lasso, and provide a travel advisory for visitors during the inauguration and the initial weeks of the new administration.

Explanation of Risk Degradation in Ecuador

Ecuador, traditionally considered relatively safe, has experienced a significant increase in intentional murder/homicide rates over the past five years. In 2018, the rate was 5.84 homicides per 100,000 inhabitants, comparable to some European countries and even lower than the United States. However, by the end of 2023, it is projected to reach 40 homicides per 100,000, making Ecuador one of the most violent countries globally.

Due to the lack of attention from its governments, Ecuador transformed from a relatively safe banana exporter into a target for drug gangs. Cocaine hidden in shipments of legitimate exports bound for Europe exemplifies the accelerated risk degradation. With over 40% of Ecuadorians identifying crime as the country's primary issue, the current risk level is alarming. Narco-politics is at the heart of the crisis, leading to a surge in violence, including mass murderers in jails, indigenous strikes, and frequent car bombs. Consequently, Ecuador is on track to continue risk degradation if the new administration doesn’t make energic decisions.

Qualitative and Quantitative Analysis of Vulnerabilities and Threats

For seasoned security professionals, the acknowledgment that private corporations and international NGOs view risk as an inherent aspect of conducting business, and sometimes even as an opportunity, is common knowledge. Trusted security consultants are now tasked with conducting a thorough assessment and presenting recommendations for mitigating the risk of indiscriminate attacks in public spaces, targeted assassinations, armed robberies, bombings, and kidnappings. This pertains specifically to corporate executives and officers attending the presidential inauguration and visiting decision-makers during the initial weeks of the new administration.

To evaluate vulnerabilities, the recommended approach starts with an in-depth context analysis using the PESTEL framework. In the case of Ecuador, this examination reveals a weakened government structure, economic volatility, social discontent, technological shortcomings, environmental threats, and legal challenges. As of November 2023, the culmination of these factors results in an overall inadequate control rating of 78.33%.

As of November 2023, Ecuador security vulnerabilities are rated at 78,33%

The PESTEL framework, outlining six critical factors in Ecuador, would manifest as follows:

• Political Factors: Ecuador has a weakened government structure, instability, and corruption, which is associated with threats such as terrorism and possible foreign intervention (deficiency level 90%).
• Economic Factors: the economy tends to be volatile, with pronounced levels of inequality, which is related to threats of common crime (deficiency level 80%).
• Sociocultural Factors: There is a high level of social discontent, which is associated with threats of social protests (deficiency level 80%).
• Technological Factors: The infrastructure supporting communications and technology often has flaws, which are related to cybercrime threats (deficiency level 70%).
• Environmental Factors: Poor preparation for cyclical presence of “El Ni?o” phenomena in the coast, and the Andean volcanic and earthquake belt is associated with the threat of natural disasters, as well as the possibility of medical threats (deficiency level 90%).
• Legal Factors: A culture of lawlessness, lack of legal security, and deficiencies in law enforcement make planning and executing control activities challenging in the face of organized crime threats (deficiency level 60%).

Quantitatively, threat capabilities, including terrorism, organized crime, common crime, protesters, natural phenomena, medical threats, cybercriminals, and foreign forces, amount to a total threat capability of 76.25% as of November 2023.

As of November 2023, security threat capabilities in Ecuador are rated at 76,25%

Furthermore, threat capabilities identified in the context can be characterized qualitatively by detailing their methods, equipment, and quantity. In the Ecuador context, they could be:

Terrorism (threat capability level 80%):

• Method: Force
• Equipment: Warfare weapons
• Quantity: Individuals and cells of 20 to 25 people

Organized Crime (threat capability level 100%):

• Method: Deception and force
• Equipment: Personal and warfare weapons
• Quantity: Groups of 12 to 18 people

Common Crime (threat capability level 70%):

• Method: Stealth, deception, and force
• Equipment: Unarmed, opportunistic, or personal weapons
• Quantity: Individuals and groups of 4 to 12 people

Protesters (threat capability level 80%):

• Method: Force
• Equipment: Unarmed, opportunistic, personal, and warfare weapons
• Quantity: Groups of 12 to an unlimited number of people

Natural Phenomena (threat capability level 90%):

• Method: Earthquakes, eruptions, floods

Medical (threat capability level 70%):

• Method: Accidents and diseases

Cybercriminals (threat capability level 60%):

• Method: Stealth and deception
• Equipment: Unarmed
• Quantity: Individuals and groups of 4 to 12 people

Foreign Forces (capability level 60%):

• Method: Stealth and force
• Equipment: Warfare weapons
• Quantity: Groups of 12 to an unlimited number of people

The risk assessment should be finalized by meticulously identifying and quantifying the unique motivations and security shortcomings associated with the visiting executives and officers.

This process is intricately tied to the government officials the visitor will meet, the geographical areas they plan to travel within the country, and other pertinent characteristics, including specific and qualified threats tailored to the individual visitor.

An executive's risk assessment should be completed by identifying and quantifying individual motivations and security shortcomings.

Key Names and Positions in the New Ecuadorian Government

As Ecuador prepares to welcome President Daniel Noboa, key names and positions in the new government include:

• President-elect: Daniel Roy-Gilchrist Noboa Azín (Profession: Entrepreneur)
• Vice President-elect: María Verónica Abad Rojas (Profession: Businesswoman)

Additionally, appointed ministries and their titular professionals are:

• Agriculture and Livestock: Franklin Danilo Palacios Márquez (Agricultural Engineer and Entrepreneur)
• Environment, Water, and Ecological Transition: Sade Fritschi Naranjo (Bachelor in International Tourism Management)
• Sports: Andrés Guschmer Tamariz (Sports Journalist)
• Urban Development and Housing: Humberto Plaza Argüello (Architect)
• Economy and Finance: Sariha Belén Moya Angulo (Economist)
• Education: Daniel Ricardo Calderón Zevallos (Educator)
• Energy and Mines: Andrea Arrobo Pe?a (Political Scientist and Internationalist)
• Government: Mónica Palencia Nú?ez (Lawyer)
• Production, Foreign Trade, Investments, and Fisheries: María Sonsoles García León (Lawyer specializing in Customs Law and Foreign Trade)
• Foreign Relations and Human Mobility: Gabriela Sommerfeld Rosero (Financier and Businesswoman)
• Transportation and Public Works: Roberto Luque Nuques (Civil Engineer)
• Tourism: Niels Olsen Peet (Tourism Entrepreneur)

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The latest U.S. State Department Travel Advisory rates security in Ecuador at Level 2: Exercise Increased Caution. It advises against travel to specific provinces due to high crime rates. Visitors are urged to exercise caution, use hotel safes, avoid wearing expensive items, and be vigilant in crowds and public transportation. Travelers are also cautioned about potential robberies, sexual assaults, civil unrest, and the presence of incapacitating drugs.

In conclusion, while Ecuador ushers in a new government with hopes of addressing the existing challenges, it is crucial for visitors to remain informed and exercise caution, considering the current risk context outlined in this analysis. As with any dynamic situation, performing due diligence, and staying updated on travel advisories and local developments is paramount for a safe and enjoyable visit.

I am available to speak or meet if you need specific recommendations or additional insight into the current security situation of Ecuador.

You may contact Ecuador Security via email at operations@latam.expert by calling or messaging Cel. +593987628410