THE COUNTRY IN BETWEEN SUPERPOWERS - REFLECTIONS FROM A GEOPOLITICAL EPICENTER

Returning home to Denmark after some intense and impactful days in Georgia, I would like to take this opportunity to reflect on my impressions and try to place them in a larger context.

When one step off the plane in Kutaisi and sets foot on Georgian soil, the first thing that catches the eye is the mountains. Beautiful, grand, and majestic, the Caucasus Mountains rise as far as the eye can see - 360 degrees around. When I mentioned the mountains to the taxi driver, he immidiately reflected: "The mountain top on your left-hand side is on the border to Turkey - and the mountain top on your right-hand side is on the border to Russia. We are surrounded by strong neighbors. It is our destiny." This comment, made just 10 minutes into my visit to Georgia, already formed an important part of the analysis that would unfold in the following days.

At the beginning of this testimony from my visit to Georgia, it is worth putting into context why the country is so important for external actors. Yes - actually the global superpowers.

The Caucasus holds significant geopolitical significance due to its proximity to major regions such as Europe, the Middle East, and Central Asia. Georgia, with its access to the sea and borders with Russia, Azerbaijan, Armenia, and Turkey, plays a crucial role in this region. This leads to active approaches from the EU and visible attempts by Russia and China to exert political and economic influence, factors that I will describe below.

Here are some examples that I sensed, saw, or experienced during my visit.

One does not need to speak for long with Georgians before it becomes clear that Georgia has very complex relations with Russia.

On the one hand, Russia sponsored separatists in Georgia after the collapse of the Soviet Union, and in 2008, there was a war between Russia and Georgia that resulted in parts of Georgia still being occupied, which I witnessed firsthand during a very emotionally strong visit to the barbed wire fence that now separates Georgia and South Ossetia, which until 2008 was Georgian land.

These events have influenced the attitude of Georgians towards Russians. For example, when Russian citizens left their country due to mobilization or in protest against the Putin regime, many Georgians viewed them negatively. I experienced a clear example of this when I struck up a conversation with a Russian woman during a trip up the Caucasus Mountains and the Russian border of Kazbegi. At first, she introduced herself as Armenian, but after some time, she revealed that she actually came from Vladikavkaz, the capital of the Russian province of North Ossetia. She consistently concealed her Russian identity out of fear of reprisals. She spoke English to the Georgians she met, even though practically all Georgians speak Russian. On her phone, she showed me numerous examples of anti-Russian graffiti she had encountered on buildings throughout the country and shared instances of insults and other hostilities she faced.

At the same time, the Georgian government maintains close cooperation with Russia. Among other things, it helps to circumvent Russia's sanctions, which I got a clear impression of when I saw kilometers-long lines of vehicles from countries like Iran along the Russian military highway, forming a truck bridge reminiscent of the airlift to West Berlin during World War II. A constant flow of goods entering Russia that would hardly be able to be sent through regular freight routes. This position during the war in Ukraine not only leads to head-shaking in the West but also leads to internal instability. Especially in the last year, the opposition and the ruling Georgian Dream party were constantly in conflict, and the country was shaken by internal political battles with the participation of external players interfering in Georgia's internal affairs. The government, however, managed to retain power and capitalize on being between the two opposing sides. Surely supported by large parts of the rural population, who still show great loyalty to the former Soviet Union - and especially Joseph Stalin, who was born in the Georgian city of Gori. In Gori, I almost experienced a Stalin cult with absurd idolization of the dictator, primarily from the older part of the population, who think that life was better in the Soviet Union - and from many people, there was sympathy for Putin's recent political project, which casts imperialist shadows over former Soviet republics like Georgia and Ukraine.

Another thing I experienced that strongly illustrated the difficult geopolitical situation Georgia balances in is its relationship with China. Throughout the country, I encountered numerous Chinese infrastructure projects, Chinese train equipment, many Chinese containers with goods, and several buildings adorned with Chinese characters. This is supported by the official cooperation agreement underway between Beijing and Tbilisi.

Despite the close dance with the West's traditional enemies, Georgia still maintains good relations with the Western world and plans to integrate into the EU. This is generally supported by the population, which is particularly evident in larger cities like Kutaisi and Tbilisi, where EU flags adorn all official buildings, many lampposts, and billboards, casting a blue hue over the streets.

By the end of last year, Georgia finally received EU candidate status, a dream of a significant part of the population. In Tbilisi, tens of thousands of people took to the streets to celebrate this historic EU decision. However, many Georgians I spoke with fear that their partnership with the EU will lead to reactions from Russia, which has a desire to prevent Georgia from gaining stability and joining the EU. They are nervously awaiting what Moscow's next move may be. This fear was particularly pronounced in the border areas with South Ossetia, where aggressive Russian presence is already part of everyday life.

Simultaneously, it is important for the EU to prevent Russia from consolidating its influence in the region, as it would make it easier for Russia to circumvent sanctions and trade with Iran through Georgia's territory, as illustrated by the long line of Iranian trucks forming a truck bridge along the Russian military highway, as I described earlier.

And what do the Georgian people say about it all? It is clear that they do not speak with one voice. They vary widely - from the Stalin cult in Gori to modern Europeans in Tbilisi - and across many poor rural areas, where geopolitical challenges seem secondary compared to everyday trials.

I could feel in many places that especially young people in Georgia genuinely want to pursue a pro-Western course and integration with the EU. Many also hoped that the upcoming parliamentary elections in Georgia will move the country in a more pro-Western direction. This gives hope that Georgia will choose the right side - and be a stabilizing, democratic, and progressive borderland to Russia - and a Western-minded partner to China.

However, it remains that Georgia has developed a pattern of surviving by pragmatically balancing as "the country between superpowers" - with integration with the EU but also close relations with Moscow and Beijing. This illustrates the survival mechanism that arises from the reality that the taxi driver so eloquently expressed a few minutes into my first meeting with Georgia: "We are surrounded by strong neighbors. It is our destiny."

In conclusion, Georgia's position as a geopolitical epicenter makes it a fascinating case study. Its strategic location, complex relations with Russia, growing ties with the West, and increasing presence of China all contribute to its importance in the region. The choices Georgia makes in the coming years will not only shape its own future but also have broader implications for the geopolitical landscape of the Caucasus and beyond.

/Jon Sk?lerud