Countdown, how to avoid climate catastrophe. Part 2 FOOD

There is a substantial and growing body of research on the The Great Food Transformation to a healthy diet that, with improving food production and decreasing food waste, can feed 10 billion human beings sustainably. Food features prominently in Project Drawdown and accounts for about a 1/3 of greenhouse-gas emissions reduced, avoided or sequestered. Plant-rich diet and reduced food waste rank 4th and 3rd respectively and 1st if combined together out of 80 Drawdown solutions to account for over 10% of emission reductions.

COUNTDOWN QUESTION: How can we spark worldwide shift to healthier food systems?

RESEARCH ANSWER: Global adoption of a reference diet that provide major health benefits, including a large reduction in total mortality

In February 2019 the EAT-Lancet Commission, co-chaired by Walter Willett and Johan Rockstr?m, published a landmark study, co-authored by 37 researcher from 16 countries in various fields including human health, agriculture, political science and environmental sustainability, to answer the following question:

QUESTION Can we feed a future population of 10 billion people a healthy diet within planetary boundaries?

ANSWER Yes, but it will be impossible without transforming eating habits, improving food production and reducing food waste.

The EAT-Lancet report is the first full scientific review of what constitutes a healthy diet from a sustainable food system, and which actions can support and speed up food system transformation. Watch this 2 min. video to see how and this 27 min. video to learn more on the solutions and strategies to feed 10 billion healthily and sustainably.

Problem:

1. More than 820 million people have insufficient food and many more consume an unhealthy diet that contributes to premature death and morbidity. Moreover, global food production is the largest pressure caused by humans on Earth, threatening local ecosystems and the stability of the Earth system.
2. Current dietary trends, combined with projected population growth to about 10 billion by 2050, will exacerbate risks to people and planet. The global burden of disease is predicted to worsen and the effects of food production on greenhouse-gas emissions, nitrogen and phosphorus pollution, biodiversity loss, and water and land use will reduce the stability of the Earth system.

Solution: Global healthy reference diet, improved productivity and reduced food waste

• Healthy diets have an appropriate caloric intake and consist of a diversity of plant-based foods, low amounts of animal source foods, unsaturated rather than saturated fats, and small amounts of refined grains, highly processed foods, and added sugars.
• The great food transformation to healthy diets by 2050 will require substantial dietary shifts, including a greater than 50% reduction in global consumption of unhealthy foods, such as red meat and sugar, and a greater than 100% increase in consumption of healthy foods, such as nuts, fruits, vegetables, and legumes. However, the changes needed differ greatly by region.
• Dietary changes from current diets to healthy diets are likely to substantially benefit human health, averting about 10·8–11·6 million deaths per year
• Sustainable food production for about 10 billion people should 1) use no additional land, 2) safeguard existing biodiversity, 3) reduce water use 4) substantially reduce nitrogen and phosphorus pollution, 5) produce zero carbon dioxide emissions, and cause no further increase in methane and nitrous oxide emissions.
• Transformation to sustainable food production by 2050 will require 1) at least a 75% reduction of yield gaps 2) global redistribution of nitrogen and phosphorus fertiliser use, recycling of phosphorus, radical improvements in efficiency of fertiliser and water use, 3) reduction in agricultural greenhouse-gas emissions, adoption of land management practices to go from carbon source to sink
• The scientific targets for healthy diets from sustainable food systems are intertwined with all UN Sustainable Development Goals. For example, achieving these targets will depend on providing high-quality primary health care that integrates family planning and education on healthy diets.
• Achieving healthy diets from sustainable food systems for everyone will require substantial shifts towards healthy dietary patterns, large reductions in food losses and waste, and major improvements in food production practices.

5 Strategies to get us there

1. Seek international and national commitment to shift towards healthy diets. 1) Increase consumption of plant-based foods and substantially reducing consumption of animal source foods. 2) Invest in public health information and sustainability education, and 3) Make health and environment departments work together.
2. Re-orient agricultural priorities from producing high quantities of food to producing healthy food. Production should focus on a diverse range of nutritious foods from biodiversity-enhancing food production systems rather than increased volume of a few crops, most of which are used for animal production.
3. Sustainably intensify food production to increase high-quality output. The current global food system is unsustainable and requires an agricultural revolution that is based on sustainable intensification. This change would entail reducing yield gaps on cropland, improving radically the efficiency of fertiliser and water use, changes in crop and feed management, and more biodiverse agricultural systems.
4. Strong and coordinated governance of land and oceans. Such governance includes implementing a zero-expansion policy of new agricultural land into natural ecosystems and species-rich forests, restoring and re-foresting degraded land, establishing mechanisms of international land-use governance, and adopting a Half Earth strategy for biodiversity conservation. The world's oceans need to be effectively managed so fisheries do not negatively affect ecosystems, fish stocks are used responsibly, and global aquaculture production is expanded sustainably
5. At least halve food losses and waste, in line with global sustainable development goals. Substantially reducing the amount of food lost and wasted across the food supply chain, from production to consumption, is essential for the global food system to stay within its safe operating space.

Source: Eat-Lancet Commission

What can I do to avert climate catastrophe?

Countdown asks the right 5 giant questions on Power, Built Environment, Transport, Food and Nature to avoid climate catastrophe. So what is still needed?

1. The Coronovirus pandemic is taking a tragic toll on human life and livelihoods. The pandemic is a warning of how vulnerable humankind is, just how unprepared we are for climate catastrophe and how big our inaction to prevent climate catastrophe is. Time to rethink the inequality of human society, our relationship with nature, what we eat, how we consume and dispose of what we waste, the pollution we cause, how we move around, our health and shelter. What future do we want?
2. Help deploy sustainable climate solutions that get us there: Project Drawdown researches 100 sustainable climate solutions to avoid, reduce and capture human greenhouse gas emissions for a cleaner, safer, more equitable, biodiverse and healthier world. These solutions from 2017 have been updated in The Drawdown Review , March 2020.
3. Human society willingness to change: As ever more humans suffer directly the consequences of out-of-control climate change and from worsening air, water and soil pollution humans and their communities are taking action.
4. Social media such as Climate Countdown to touch and rapidly reach hundreds of millions of human beings

What else can I do?

1. Learn about, share and deploy the solutions to climate change from reliable research based sources such as Project Drawdown, Exponential Climate Action Roadmap, One Earth Climate Model Climate Reality Leadership Future Earth
2. Join the Countdown!
3. Join We Don't Have Time
4. Become a Climate Reality Leader and present on the climate crisis and its solutions