Could Spray and Pray Win In VC?

? Read time: 3 min

Most investors fall into one of two camps:

The Sniper—focused, precise, betting big on carefully vetted startups.

The Spray-and-Pray Investor—casting a wide net, hoping one unicorn saves the day.

Both have their merits. Both have their risks.

Let’s break it down ??

1. What is “Spray and Pray”?

It’s simple: Make LOTS of small bets. Hope a few hit.

The idea? Predicting success is damn hard. You hedge your bets, diversify, and rely on the Power Law to do its thing.

In theory, it sounds like a no-brainer.

2. Why Some VCs Swear By It

? Diversification: A wide portfolio increases your chances of catching a breakout winner. One investment can make the entire fund. Hit the Power Law ??

? Emerging Markets: New sectors—like deep tech or climate hardware (where most of the impact occurs)—are hard to predict. A broader strategy helps you discover the next game-changer.

? FOMO: Miss that one deal and it haunts you. Spraying covers more ground, ensuring you don’t lose out.

Sounds smart, right?

Hold on. Let’s look at the numbers.

3. The Stats Don’t Lie

Here’s the kicker:

?? 65% of VC returns come from just 5% of investments.

The Power Law is brutal. A handful of deals make all the difference.

But here’s the downside of spraying too thin:

• You spread yourself (and your resources) so far that you neglect your winners.
• Most startups don’t fail because of bad ideas; they fail from poor execution. Hands-on VCs can help avoid that—but only if they have time.

4. The Case for a Sniper Approach

There’s another path: Focused bets.

?? Focused Expertise: Invest in fewer startups but support them deeply. Mentorship, intros, resources—you can go all in.

?? Quality Over Quantity: A sniper strategy hones in on the team, market, and tech—making every investment a calculated move.

?? Sustainable Impact: Long-term returns require long-term thinking. Especially in sectors like hardware or industrial innovation. You can’t “spray and pray” your way to climate solutions or major tech breakthroughs.

A few high-conviction bets can outperform 100 random ones.

5. What’s the Right Strategy?

Here’s the cheat sheet for VCs (and founders):

? Diversify, but Don’t Dilute Go broad in the early stages—pre-seed, seed. But as startups progress, double down on the few showing real promise.

? Stay Contrarian The biggest wins come from going where others don’t. Contrarian bets in emerging fields can change the game.

? Find the Sweet Spot: TRL 5-7 For technology investors, focus on Technology Readiness Level (TRL) 5-7. It’s where innovation starts to scale—balancing risk and reward.

Conclusion

"Spray and pray" might sound sexy—lots of bets, lots of action. But it’s not the silver bullet for every VC.

The real winners? They combine breadth with depth.

? Go broad when scouting opportunities. ?? Go deep on the few that can define your fund.

Because in venture capital, one big bet can be all you need.

Last month, I launched the Pro Subscription. Here’s why? ??

My goal for 2025? To help you:

? Optimize your startup or fund

? Remove barriers to success

? Save time and close faster

With a Pro Subscription, you’ll unlock full access to my exclusive resources, including:

?? The Ultimate Investor Toolkit 2025 ??. Everything You Need to Crack the VC Investing Game

?? The Ultimate Notion Data Room Template. A complete system to power your fundraising game, organized in Notion for maximum efficiency.

?? 50 Pitch Decks That Raised Billions in Funding ?? Proven Winners You Can Learn From

?? The Only Startup Fundraising Guide You’ll Ever Need. Save time, close faster, and level up your fundraising game.

?? The VC Fund Manager’s Bible. Everything You Need to Build, Raise, and Scale a Game-Changing Fund