Could the S&P 500 triple by 2030?

Here are four major reasons this could be the case.

?? Learn: A Bullish Case for the Future

Could the S&P 500 triple by 2030? This is what Fundstrat's Tom Lee thinks. I agree. Here’s why betting on the U.S. is a smart move:

1. Millennials Entering Prime Spending Years

Millennials are entering their prime spending years, which historically leads to significant economic growth.

• Demographics: The average age of millennials is now 31.
• Historical Cycles: Similar trends were seen in the 1920s and 1950s-60s.
• Economic Impact: Increased borrowing and spending fuel growth.

This demographic shift is poised to drive the next major cycle of economic expansion.

2. Stock Market Peaks and Demographic Trends

There is a historical correlation between stock market peaks and demographic trends.

• Historical Correlation: Stock market peaks align with prime age demographics.
• Past Bear Markets: Occurred when previous generations hit their prime age.
• Future Potential: Millennials won’t peak until 2038, suggesting more upside.

This indicates a long runway for growth in the stock market before a demographic peak occurs.

3. Technological Advancements and Labor Shortage

Technological advancements are set to address the global labor shortage, creating economic opportunities.

• Global Shortage: Significant labor shortfall projected by 2030.
• AI and Tech: Increased spending on technology to mitigate labor issues.
• Economic Opportunity: U.S. tech companies are poised for growth.

Investing in technology will be crucial in overcoming labor shortages and driving economic growth.

4. Capital Flows into U.S. Tech Stocks

U.S. tech stocks are expected to see significant capital inflows as companies invest in technology.

• Investment Surge: Trillions expected to be invested in technology.
• Sector Growth: Tech sector to grow from 30% to 50% of the S&P 500.
• Global Capital: The best technology companies are based in the U.S.

This influx of capital will further bolster the U.S. economy and its stock market.

Betting on the U.S. means betting on:

• Innovation
• Demographic Strength
• Robust Economic Future

The combination of these factors sets the stage for significant growth in the U.S. stock market. Positioning your assets for this requires using an offense/defense framework.

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?? Chart: The Power of the U.S. Dollar

With all the talk of the $32 trillion dollar deficit, you would think it’s the end of the dollar.?

The reality is like any asset, the dollar’s value is based on its demand. When demand increases, whether for trade purposes or financial transactions, the value increases.

The U.S. Economy is the strongest in the world, easily outperforming its peers.?

The United States has become a magnet for global investors looking for better returns, a dynamic that will continue even as interest rates ease later this year.

30% of global capital flows are going to the U.S. exceeding pre-pandemic figures of? 18%.

In this long-term view since 1970, the dollar is currently above its average, although it was much stronger in the 1980s. More importantly, it has climbed significantly recently and is now at its strongest level since the early 2000s.

Some factors driving the dollar have been trade and spending: the nearshoring of global supply chains; the adoption of industrial policies that nurture nascent technologies; and a rise in American defense spending.

Although policies like these can lead to higher prices for households, they also lead to a stronger dollar, which can dampen those higher prices as imported goods become cheaper.

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