Could Russia use a tactical nuke in Ukraine?

Could Russia use a tactical nuke in Ukraine?

The current war in Ukraine is in the backs of all our minds these days. The Russian military has not performed in top form throughout the " Special Military Action". Russia thought it would only take about three days to take Kiev and then the whole country. It's been over 295 days now and the hot war is still raging. President Putin could very well resort to use of tactical nuclear weapons to take the initiative. He has threatened the use of nuclear weapons a few times already.

You may have heard the term Tactical Nuclear Weapon (TNW) in the news about Ukraine. " TNWs' are generally designed for battlefield use and have a shorter range than strategic, or long-range, nuclear weapons, which are designed to directly attack an adversary’s homeland."

"The United States has about 200 tactical nuclear gravity bombs with explosive yields adjustable between 0.3 and 170 kilotons. (The yield of the Hiroshima bomb was 15 kilotons.) The Pentagon deploys about 100 of those bombs, called the B61, in five European countries: Italy, Germany, Turkey, Belgium, and the Netherlands.

Meanwhile Russia has nearly 2,000 tactical nuclear weapons with a broad range of yields, from very low to over 100 kilotons. These can be delivered by air, ship, and ground-based systems, some of which also deliver conventional weapons. For example, some of the missiles Russia has used against Ukraine can also carry nuclear warheads, increasing the potential for confusion."

Lets look at the different types of tactical nuclear weapons

US Tactical Nuclear Weapons:

The?B61?nuclear bomb?is the primary?thermonuclear?gravity bomb?in the United States?Enduring Stockpile?following the end of the?Cold War. It is a low to intermediate-yield?strategic?and?tactical nuclear weapon?featuring a two-stage?radiation implosion?design.

The B61 is of the?variable yield?("dial-a-yield" in informal military jargon) design with a yield of 0.3 to 340 kilotons in its various mods.

No alt text provided for this image
B61 variable yeild tactical nuke

Special Atomic Demolition Munition

The?Special Atomic Demolition Munition?(SADM), also known as the?XM129?and?XM159 Atomic Demolition Charges,?and the?B54?bomb?was a?nuclear?man-portable?atomic demolition munition?(ADM) system fielded by the US military from the 1960s to 1980s but never used in combat.

SADM's were designed to be tactical nuclear weapons which could be carried by Special Forces soldiers and deployed on the battlefield behind enemy lines. US Navy SEALS were specially trained to carry out these missions.


No alt text provided for this image
Special Atomic Demolition Munition
No alt text provided for this image
one option for deployment of SADM ( device is between the parachutest legs)

Russian Tactical Nuclear weapons: based on a?report?by the?Bulletin of Atomic Scientists.

Naval Nukes

Nearly half of Russia’s non-strategic arsenal (930 warheads) are estimated to belong to the Russian Navy. Of greatest relevance are long-range (1,550 miles) subsonic?Kalibr land-attack cruise missiles, as well as P-800 Oniks supersonic anti-ship missiles (range 500 miles), both understood to be nuclear-capable.

No alt text provided for this image
Kalibr cruise missile


Both the P-800 and Kalibr can be mounted on Russian frigates, corvettes, and?Yasen-class submarines. The P-800 is also deployed on truck-mounted?Bastion-P coastal defense systems, which are believed to have twenty-five nuclear warheads allocated.

No alt text provided for this image
Bastion-P costal defense system


The Russian Navy also reportedly still maintains?nuclear torpedoes, depth charges, and anti-submarine rockets. Like dropping hand grenades in a fishing pond, these weapons allow the destruction or disabling of submerged vessels in a given sector without having to nail down their exact position.

Nuclear Surface-to-Air Missiles

The same report estimates that Russia still maintains 290 nuclear warheads for surface-to-air missiles for S-300 and?S-400 long-range air defense systems—likely for ballistic missile defense contingencies. Similarly, the A135 missile defense system protecting Moscow is believed to have ninety 10-kiloton warheads.

No alt text provided for this image
S 400 Long range air defense system


Missile defense is often described as similar to shooting down a rifle bullet with another bullet. Nuclear warheads again offer a cheap solution to the precision problem: instead of having to accurately impact an incoming warhead, an air defense nuke can lean on its considerable blast radius.

Land-Based Batteries

The Russian Army is estimated to possess only seventy nuclear warheads for its missile batteries. Its precise Iskander-M tactical ballistic missile system can?swap its regular warhead for up to a 50-kiloton nuke.

Additionally, four battalions of the Iskander-K variant instead launch a variant of the nuclear-capable Kalibur missile called the?9M729 Novator, the development of which ushered in the?demise of the INF Treaty?regulating intermediate-range missiles.

Non-Strategic Bombers

More of Russia’s non-strategic nuclear firepower comes in the form of 500-600 air-launched weapons carried by Su-34 and older Su-24M attack jets and longer-range?Tu-22M supersonic bombers, which can carry dual-capable Kh-32 supersonic anti-ship and land-attack missiles.

Russia has also developed a unique air-launched?Kinzhal?hypersonic ballistic missile with a 1,200-mile range. This is currently deployed by?ultra-fast MiG-31K interceptors, and can also be carried by the Tu-22M3M bombers. In the future, Moscow is expected to employ?Su-57 stealth fighters?in a nuclear strike role too.

How might the US respond to a Russian use of Tactical nuclear weapons? The US military could use conventional weapons and attack the units carrying out the nuclear attack and then striking Russian military and economic targets deep within Russia proper. The idea being put a hurt on Putin without resorting to the use of nuclear weapons ourselves.

Putin's war so far.

  1. Initial invasion failed to produce what Putin wanted.
  2. Russian weapons are not well maintained, and corruption has eaten into combat effectiveness.
  3. Russia has not been able to hold cities it's been able to take.
  4. Russian soldiers have a very low morale.
  5. Russian soldiers have poor training and lack basic equipment.
  6. Many of Russia's Senior Military personnel have been killed because of poor Operation Security OPSEC.

Because of these facts Putin may feel he has been put in a corner and strike out with tactical nuclear weapons in order to shock Ukraine and the world in hopes of gaining the initiative.



Sources:

YouTube

Tactical Nuclear Weapons | Union of Concerned Scientists (ucsusa.org)

B61 nuclear bomb - Wikipedia

Special Atomic Demolition Munition - Wikipedia

Why Does Russia Have So Many 'Tactical' Nuclear Weapons? - 19FortyFive

要查看或添加评论,请登录

社区洞察