Could NATO be Deployed in the Indo-Pacific?

In the context of the heightened tensions between the US and China over Taiwan and between the US and Iran over Israel’s war against HAMAS in Gaza and Hezbollah in Lebanon, and the emerging strategic axis between Moscow-Beijing-Tehran, is it likely that the United States may encourage the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) to make an entry into the Indo-Pacific theatre? The answer to this question may lie in events unfolding in Europe and East Asia and the tectonic shifts that are taking place in the global power balance.

The Ukraine war unfolding in Europe is essentially a conflict between the US and Russia. This conflict has a long and chequered history. Still, the main reason why Russia launched its ‘special military operation’ in 2022 was to prevent the US from expanding NATO into Ukraine, which Washington had been trying to do since it engineered the Maidan coup of 2014. As the war dragged on, contrary to expectations in Washington, Brussels, and Kyiv, the Russian military became stronger and better mobilized. The Ukraine war also led to greater cooperation between Moscow and Beijing, Pyong Yang, and Tehran, which helped to further strengthen the Russian military. Moscow was also able to deflect the pernicious effects of the US/West-led economic sanctions by entering into trade agreements for Russian oil and gas with several countries in the Global South. For instance, India agreed to buy large quantities of Russian crude oil at discounted prices, which were then refined in India and sold to third countries including in Western Europe. Therefore, as the war in Ukraine dragged on, the US and its NATO allies found themselves being confronted by a militarily resurgent Russia backed by powerful friends like China, Iran, and India.

Parallel to developments in Europe, the economic and military rise of China has come to pose a stiff challenge to American hegemony in East Asia. Mindful of this growing challenge, America’s strategic recalibration towards East Asia and the wider Indo-Pacific started in 2011 under the ‘Pivot to Asia’ policy. This led Washington to deploy more naval assets in the Asian theatre, station marines and military hardware in Darwin, Australia, and reassure allies like Taiwan, Japan, South Korea, Philippines, and Indonesia that the United States would honour its security commitments in the region. However, as the war in Ukraine dragged on and it appeared that a new and powerful axis between Moscow-Beijing-Tehran was being formed, the question emerged whether America’s commitment would be enough to maintain the strategic balance in favour of the US/West in Asia and the wider Indo-Pacific region. Washington may therefore want NATO deployment in Asia and the Indo-Pacific to contain a militarily assertive and confident China supported by Russia and Iran.

But the prolongation of the Ukraine war has caused serious strains among NATO members, most notably between France and Germany (and to a lesser extent Hungary and Turkey) versus the United States and Britain. It is now clear that the economic sanctions imposed by the United States, European Union (EU), and NATO on Russia have not affected Russia much. Moscow has continued to sell oil, gas and other resources to China, Saudi Arabia, Iran, India, and many other nations in Africa, Asia, and Latin America without much difficulty. It has also continued to do business with Europe on many products that were deliberately kept out of the sanction’s regime. Instead, the sanctions have adversely affected the European economies already reeling from the impacts of hyperinflation, supply chain disruptions, the ongoing COVID pandemic, and a growing refugee burden. The Biden Administration’s alleged sabotaging of the Nord Stream gas pipelines has added to the economic woes in Europe, particularly in Germany.[1]?The German economy has contracted, unemployment and inflation are at an all-time high, and living conditions have fallen rapidly. A similar scenario has unfolded in France, with regular street protests by disgruntled farmers, government employees, students, migrants, and the unemployed. If the Ukraine war continues for another year, mass-scale revolts in Germany and France may break out and bring down the Scholz and Macron governments. More ominously, it may cause a serious rapture within NATO. Early signs of an impending rapture within NATO were visible last year during President Macron’s visit to China to meet with President Xi Jinping; in an interview with?Politico?President Macron warned that “Europe should reduce its dependency on the United States and avoid getting involved in any conflict between Washington and Beijing over Taiwan."[2]

Washington, therefore, has little room to manoeuvre today. Its plan to strategically encircle Russia through NATO expansion into Ukraine has been stymied by the Russian special military operation, and it increasingly looks likely that the US is staring at a strategic defeat in Ukraine. Key allies like France and Germany and critics at home are beginning to raise uncomfortable questions about the Ukraine war and more broadly about the continued relevance and purpose of NATO. A faltering economy and social unrest, both in the United States and in Europe, have further complicated things. Washington must now also contend with a militarily resurgent Russia and an aggressive and confident China, and the emerging strategic axis between Moscow, Beijing, and Tehran. Israel’s war against HAMAS, which could easily escalate into a wider West Asian war between Israel/US and Iran/Syria/Lebanon/Hezbollah/Houthis backed by Russia, has added to Washington’s woes. China and Russia already seem to be pushing the US out of West Asia. China has played the lead role in brokering a rapprochement between Riyadh and Tehran, and Russia is attempting to broker a similar peace deal between Riyadh and Damascus. Economic and commercial ties, particularly in the oil and gas sector, between Iran, Saudi Arabia, China, and Russia are on the upswing.[3] In a recent interview, Crown Prince Mohammad bin Salman of Saudi Arabia was reported to have voiced his desire to distance the Kingdom from the United States. The Saudis have joined the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) as a dialogue partner. Saudi Arabia, Iran, the United Arab Emirates, Egypt, and Ethiopia have also joined the BRICS.[4]

America’s response to the changing strategic scenario has been threefold: to strengthen bilateral strategic ties with states in Asia and the Indo-Pacific; to help build and support multilateral institutions such as the QUAD and AUKUS, which could be used for strategic purposes; and to encourage the entry of NATO into the Indo-Pacific: at the 2023 NATO foreign ministers meeting in Brussels, attended also by NATO’s Indo-Pacific partners Japan, Australia, New Zealand, and the Republic of Korea along with the European Union, Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg made it clear that NATO’s strategic mission in the future would be to neutralize the dual threat from Russia and China.[5]

In East Asia and the Indo-Pacific region, the US has worked hard to strengthen bilateral strategic partnerships with an eye on China and North Korea. The US military has ramped up its presence in East Asia and carried out war games with the South Korean forces. It has also increased its military presence around Taiwan and President Biden and other top American military and civilian leaders have repeatedly stated America’s intention to militarily defend Taiwan in the event of an attack by China. American leaders have further reassured Japan about the continued relevance of America’s extended deterrence to counter the provocative behaviour of North Korea; Washington has also not opposed Japan’s decision to significantly increase its defence spending. In Southeast Asia, the US government has recently signed an agreement with the Philippines for four new military camps where American soldiers could be deployed indefinitely.[6]?Strategic contacts with Vietnam, Indonesia, and Malaysia have increased and Washington has finally decided to open an embassy in Vanuatu to counter China’s growing presence in the South Pacific. America’s strategic ties with India have been on an upswing over the past two decades and the US has now emerged as the second-largest supplier of advanced weapons and support systems to the Indian military. Regular military exercises are held, and Washington and Delhi have signed a military logistics agreement (Logistics Exchange Memorandum of Agreement, LEMOA).

America has invested heavily in multilateral institutions in the Indo-Pacific with an eye on countering China. Washington’s ties with ASEAN have grown, although some strains remain particularly with the situation in Myanmar. America has also reassured traditional allies through the Pivot to Asia policy and by strengthening existing treaty alliances such as the South-East Asian Treaty Organization (SEATO) and Australia, New Zealand, and United States Treaty (ANZUS). More recently, America has been a vocal supporter of the Quadrilateral (QUAD) arrangement, an alliance of four liberal democratic states (US, India, Japan, and Australia). The annual ‘Malabar’ bilateral naval exercises between the US and India have now been expanded to include Japan and Australia. In February 2023, the United States signed the AUKUS agreement with the United Kingdom and Australia. Under the agreement, Australia would eventually procure eight nuclear attack submarines (SSNs) at a cost of around $368 billion. The first three submarines are likely to be refurbished Virginia class SSNs expected to be delivered around the mid-to-late 2030s. The remaining submarines would be the new AUKUS class SSNs to be built in Adelaide with British and American technology.?The US State Department also agreed to sell to Australia 220 Tomahawk cruise missiles that the new submarines would carry.[7] A second major strand of the AUKUS agreement is cutting-edge technological collaboration, especially in the defence and security sectors between American, British, and Australian companies and organizations.

Still, this may not be enough for Washington, particularly with the growing axis between Moscow, Beijing, and Tehran. America therefore must strengthen its strategic position in the Indo-Pacific through the deployment of NATO. But given the serious strains within NATO particularly with France and Germany, an effective NATO strategic deployment in the Indo-Pacific (naval and air power mainly) will be mostly through the US and British military assets working in tandem with the militaries of NATO’s Indo-Pacific partners - Japan, South Korea, Australia, and New Zealand. NATO’s quest for more Indo-Pacific partners may not stop with the four current ones. In a recent visit to India, Julianne Smith, the United States Permanent Representative to NATO, remarked that the “door is open” for India to develop closer ties with NATO and that NATO would be “more than happy to engage with India” when New Delhi feels ready to do so.[8]

Tectonic shifts are taking place in global power balance and the world is rapidly becoming multipolar. In this multipolar environment, the US would want to use all the leverages it can get in the Indo-Pacific, particularly at a time when a powerful China-Russia-Iran axis is rapidly strengthening. A major confrontation between US and NATO on one side and China, Russia, and Iran on the other for hegemony may suck in regional states like Australia, India, Japan, and South Korea and force them to choose sides, which normally they would be wise to avoid.?

Notes:

[1] Seymour Hersh, “How America Took Out the Nord Stream Pipeline.”?Substack.com , 8 February 2023. Available at:?https://seymourhersh.substack.com/p/how-america-took-out-the-nord-stream .

[2] Latika Bourke, “Macron Sparks Outrage, Infuriates China Hawks over Taiwan Comments.”?WA Today, 10 April 2023. Available at:?https://www.watoday.com.au/world/europe/after-visit-with-xi-macron-warns-europe-on-support-for-taiwan-infuriating-china-hawks-20230410-p5cz6t.html .

[3] Rajat Ganguly, “China's Saudi-Iran Diplomacy: A Stunning Surprise.”?Polaris Live, 15 March 2023. Available at:?https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9S9QFuthd4o&list=PL4yyTisSNeBUnk7ntj2ewvD8Vi7ofp5Ni&index=2&t=364s .

[4] “Saudi Arabia Enters China-led SCO: US' Hegemony in West Asia Over?”?Vantage with Palki Sharma, 30 March 2023. Available at:?https://www.firstpost.com/vantage/saudi-arabia-enters-chinaled-sco-us-hegemony-in-west-asia-over-vantage-with-palki-sharma-5552 .

[5] “NATO Foreign Ministers Wrap up Meetings with Focus on China and Support to Ukraine.”?North Atlantic Treaty Organization, 5 April 2023. Available at:?https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/news_213454.htm .

[6] Jim Gomez, “Philippines Names 4 New Camps for US Forces Amid China Fury.”?Associated Press, 3 April 2023. Available at:?https://apnews.com/article/philippines-united-states-military-china-4db2a71161398e2769cceb2838fa2750?s=09 .

[7] “Australia to Buy up to 220 Tomahawk Missiles from the US.” The Times of India, 17 March 2023. Available at: https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/world/rest-of-world/australia-to-buy-up-to-220-tomahawk-missiles-from-the-us/articleshow/98723268.cms .

[8] Srinjoy Chowdhury, “As Ukraine War Rages, NATO Seeks Closer Ties with India.”?Times Now, 1 April 2023. Available at:?https://www.timesnownews.com/world/amid-ukraine-war-us-signalling-india-to-join-nato-us-nato-ambassador-says-door-is-open-article-99155329/amp .