Could Iran target Jews outside Israel?

Jonathan Sacerdoti I 3 October 2024 I Spectator Australia

After the massive direct Iranian attack on Israel, many breathed a sigh of relief that Israel’s defences were mostly well prepared and highly effective. The one death reported was that of a Gazan Palestinian man killed by shrapnel near Jericho. So much for Iranian solidarity with the Palestinians. Yet tensions remain high as further Iranian aggression may follow. This time, it could the Jews of Europe, the UK or America who are the targets.

Iran has a history of responding to setbacks with global terrorism

Israel’s impressive strategic operational activities in Lebanon and Syria have not only severely limited Hezbollah’s abilities, but also restored Israel’s intelligence and military deterrence in the region. By thrashing Hezbollah so severely, Israel badly humiliated the terror group’s puppet-master, Iran. Iran’s ability to damage Israel directly has so far proved to be lacking, but at the start of the Jewish New Year, many Jews around the world have a pronounced sense of unease.

Among some Iran analysts, there is a rising fear that the regime could continue its retaliation in a way more aligned with its traditional strategic playbook: through asymmetric warfare. Iran has a history of responding to setbacks with global terrorism, and the infrastructure for such attacks is already in place, including here in the UK and across much of the West. Our weakness in the face of their extremism and manipulation has put all of us at risk, particularly Jews and Iranian dissidents.

Iran’s embarrassment over its proxy Hezbollah’s failures cannot be overstated. For decades, Hezbollah has been Tehran’s primary asset, a formidable force against Israel and a key component of Iran’s regional power projection. However, in recent months, Israel’s unprecedented intelligence-led strategic planning and precision strikes have severely weakened Hezbollah, exposing the limitations of the group that was once considered nearly untouchable.

When Iran cannot strike a powerful military blow, it frequently turns to asymmetric warfare, often targeting Jewish and Israeli civilians far from the Middle East. We have seen this pattern before, most notably in the 1994 bombing of the AMIA Jewish community centre in Buenos Aires, orchestrated by Hezbollah under Iranian direction. The terror attack killed 85 people as part of a broader strategy to exert pressure on Israel by hitting Jewish targets globally.

Today, the threat is particularly acute. Iran’s Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) has been busy mapping Jewish institutions across Europe, preparing for precisely this type of retaliation. Several foiled terror and murder plots, especially in the UK, have shown how far Iran’s reach extends. Tehran’s global terror networks, cultivated over decades, make Jewish communities in the diaspora easier targets than the well-protected state of Israel.

Iran has long been recruiting foreign nationals to carry out attacks on its enemies. A recent case illustrates the lengths to which the regime is willing to go: Iranian agents attempted to recruit Russians and Americans to assassinate Iranian dissidents in Europe and the U.S. during discussions with an Israeli man they had also allegedly recruited for assassination plots. The Islamic Republic’s determination to operate across borders, targeting not just its immediate enemies but anyone standing in its way, is undeniable. It could well apply this strategy to Jewish civilians outside Israel, who are more vulnerable than ever amid the current geopolitical tensions.

Jewish communities in Europe are particularly exposed, especially around significant holidays like Rosh Hashanah, when they gather in large numbers. Islamic terrorists have a history of choosing symbolic moments to strike, knowing the psychological and political impact such attacks can have. While Israel remains on high alert for further retaliation, Jewish communities outside Israel do not enjoy the same level of protection, making them tempting targets for Iran’s proxies.

This danger is compounded by the deep networks the IRGC has established across Europe. Over the years, Iranian influence has taken root in mosques, cultural centres, and radicalised Shia Islamist communities, providing Tehran with ready-made infrastructure to carry out attacks far beyond its borders. In the UK, for instance, IRGC-linked centres have been known to host events glorifying terrorism and spreading antisemitism, further radicalising local populations and creating fertile ground for recruitment.

Despite the clear and present danger, the West’s response has been inadequate. One of the most glaring failures is the refusal to proscribe the IRGC as a terrorist organisation. Without this designation, law enforcement agencies lack the legal tools to crack down on Iran’s networks and disrupt its operations. Proscribing the IRGC would not only hinder its ability to carry out attacks but would also send a strong signal that Iranian-backed extremism will no longer be tolerated.

This reluctance to act, however, has emboldened Iran. Civil servants and politicians, particularly in Europe, often fear being labeled Islamophobic, which creates a paralysis in addressing the very real threat posed by the IRGC. This leaves Jewish communities, as well as Iranian dissidents, dangerously exposed.

The time for inaction is over. As Israel continues to dismantle Hezbollah’s infrastructure in Lebanon, Jewish communities across the globe could find themselves in the crosshairs of Iran’s rage. Rosh Hashanah, traditionally a time of renewal and reflection, is more than ever also a moment of heightened risk. The West cannot afford to wait for another tragedy to unfold, and should learn from Israel’s bold efforts to face down the Islamic Republic’s threats. Let there be no doubt: Iran’s dark strategy of terror must be met with firm resistance, and its time of impunity must soon come to an end.

Author: Jonathan Sacerdoti