Could hybrid cars help us manage soaring copper demand?

As the world buys more electric vehicles, the demand for copper - a critical component in EVs - has skyrocketed. Could hybrid cars offer a middle ground?

Electric vehicles are increasing global demand for copper, which is used in their batteries, rotors, and charging stations. Targets for 100% electric vehicle adoption by 2035 cannot therefore be achieved without a rapid and potentially unrealistic acceleration in copper mining. Hybrid cars use less copper than EVs but can match them on environmental impact, and could allow for a more gradual, resource-realistic transition in the automotive sector towards electrification.

The green transition

Governments across the globe have set ambitious targets to phase out the sale of internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicles. The UK , Canada , and the US aim to phase out new ICE vehicle sales by 2035, with similar proposals put forward by the European Union . Meanwhile, China's policies are also driving significant investment in zero-emission mandates and incentives for electric vehicles (EV) purchases .

These policies are fueling an unprecedented investment boom in EVs. The auto industry is projected to invest $1tn in EVs and batteries by 2030, with leading manufacturers like Volkswagen Group and General Motors pledging tens of billions to develop and produce new EV models. This has translated into surging global EV sales, which surpassed 14 million units in 2023 and are projected to reach around 17 million this year , according to the International Energy Agency.

Copper is king

Copper is used in many technologies powering the low-carbon transition — not only EVs, but also wind turbines and solar panels. Annual copper demand is projected to reach nearly 40 million tons by 2040 under a net-zero scenario. That poses several challenges.

A recent IEF report forecasts that global copper production would need to increase by 115% over the next 30 years just to meet a current ‘business-as-usual’ scenario without full vehicle electrification. This would involve mining more copper in the next three decades than in all human history.

This is a monumental challenge further complicated by the current state of the copper industry. New copper mines that started operating between 2019 and 2022 took an average of 23 years to develop. Recent projects have experienced delays and cost overruns . Adding to the problem is a sharp decline in discovery rates: Only 16 of the 224 copper deposits identified since 1990 were found in the past decade.

More demand could also increase copper prices and slow the development and scaling of new low-carbon technologies. Copper mining can potentially lead to environmental degradation , water contamination, and social issues in mining areas. For example, many proposed mines face resistance due to these concerns, with examples of cancelled or delayed permits across a number of US states , and in Panama .

The current trajectory of copper supply is failing to match up to demand projections. Managing growing demand requires substantial investment in new mining projects and infrastructure, and innovative policy support. It also requires us to consider how we can reduce demand. Hybrid electric cars offer one means of doing so.

A transition to hybrid?

The authors of the IEF's report on copper note that there is little difference between the amount of copper needed to manufacture hybrid electric rather than ICE vehicles.

A hybrid electric vehicle requires 29kg of copper, an ICE vehicle requires around 24kg, and an EV requires around 60kg. Hybrid vehicles combine the conventional internal combustion engine with an electric motor and, thanks to the use of a significantly smaller battery, far less copper is required compared to fully electric vehicles.

So, do hybrid vehicles reduce copper demand sufficiently while remaining an environmentally friendly alternative?

EVs are often seen as the best solution for reducing emissions, but hybrid vehicles complicate this equation. According to the Argonne National Laboratory's GREET model, which measures a vehicle's total GHG emissions, EVs are actually more carbon-intensive initially to manufacture than hybrids and plug-in hybrids.

While EVs are more carbon-friendly over their lifetime, hybrids can significantly cut emissions in the short to medium term. The 2024 GreenerCars ranking by the American Council for an Energy-Efficiency Economy (ACEEE), ranked the the Toyota Prius Prime hybrid model as the most environmentally friendly on the market.

A promising alternative

Hybrid vehicles offer a promising interim solution for reducing carbon emissions. They emit around 30% fewer GHG emissions and are more fuel-efficient than ICE vehicles. They also require fewer minerals to manufacture. The report by ACEEE also found that EVs and hybrids have similar impacts on human health from air pollution.

As a transition technology, hybrids would enable a gradual shift towards full electrification while copper production increases. A nuanced approach may be needed to bridge the gap between our current scenario and one with intense demand for materials like copper.

Article originally published on the IEF website - https://www.ief.org/news/could-hybrid-cars-help-us-manage-soaring-copper-demand