Could athletes be the answer to better supply chain performance?

Techniques used to drive better sporting performance could be an indication of how supply chain performance could be transformed.

For 40 years some of the best athletes in the world compete in the Ironman World Championships in Kona Hawaii. The course has remained largely unaltered, a 3.8km swim in the pacific ocean, followed by a 180km bike ride in heat and wind, finished off with a marathon through the lava fields; It’s brutal.

It may seem to be an odd place to start a blog about supply chains, but bear with me. Here is a chart of the winner’s time in Kona since 2005

The times from 2005 to 2015 times remained pretty consistent, around 8h10m. However, from 2015 something changed, every year was a new record time. In 2015 the winner finished in 8h15m, in 2024 the new record was 7h35m, a reduction of over 8% in under 10 years

Now let’s consider the performance of supply chains over the same period. As a proxy for supply chain performance, I have looked at the Inventory to Sales Ratio for US listed companies

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Companies are carrying more inventory in relation to sales than they were 20 years ago, around 8% more. Supply chain performance is getting worse, despite billions of dollars spent on digital technology and processes like Integrated Business Planning.

I believe that the capabilities that have driven sustained improvements in Ironman world records are exactly the capabilities that are lacking in supply chain management. The improvements we have seen in top level sports are a template for a transformation in supply chain management.

1.?????? A new approach to coaching and training based on detailed metrics and scientific evidence.

2.?????? Using technology and external data sets to drive performance gains?

3.?????? Gains in performance of equipment

A total change in the approach to training and execution

It started with heart rate monitors in the early 2000’s and power meters on the bike in the 2010’s, since then there has been an explosion of wearable devices. It is now common for athletes to measure heart rate, power, blood glucose, body temperature, blood oxygen levels, heart rate variability, fatigue, straining stress, sleep quality an array of running and swimming dynamics. Understanding these key performance indicators has changed training from an art into a science. As the relationship between different metrics is better understood, athletes are able to unlock higher performance.

A world class coach has never been more important; despite developing better understand how the metrics contribute to achieving performance goals, newly developed training strategies often go against traditional training culture. Coaches and scientists like Olav Aleksander Bu, Dan Plews, Stephen Seiler and Peter Attia, who were previously viewed with scepticism have become as famous as the athletes they coach.

Historically athletes would often follow a fixed training plan, today the approach is fundamentally different, it is data and science driven, every athlete has a unique plan that fits their unique characteristics and is adapted in near real time in response to the data.

For Supply Chain

In supply chain,? metrics are still functional, there is almost no science linking metrics to business value. Most people in supply chain are incentivised by achievement of functional metrics and not delivering business value. At a fundamental level supply chain management remains and art, which has changed very little in the past 20 years.

For supply chain management to advance we need to develop supply chain coaches – not management consultants. Coaches must be accountable for defining and delivering supply chain goals, developing the strategies and supporting the teams to deliver improvements. Coaching should be science based as well as being people centric. Coaches will help drive a culture change and will enable organizations to move their supply chains away from functional, transaction focused organisations to end-to-end focus on delivering business value

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Using technology and external data sets to drive performance gains? Technology is having a dramatic impact on athletic performance. Millions of people, different sexes, ages and athletic ability are providing billions of data points. The insights that can be generate from this huge body of data is amazing. ?AI is supporting athletes and coaches, providing real time decision support and recommendations for an athletes training program.

AI is increasingly being used to create an optimal race day plan and generate an accurate prediction of their finish time. At the most recent Ironman world championship, it was noticeable that many of the top athletes were not racing against their competitors, they were focused on executing a very carefully scripted plan, old fashioned race craft is obsolete, today planning is essential and very little is left to chance. ?

Another great example is how the combination of Science and AI is helping our understanding of nutrition, a traditional one size fits all nutrition playbook is no longer sufficient, nutrition is tailored to each athlete. Recently we have seen some athletes successfully adopting fuelling strategies previously deemed to be impossible, this can lead to great gains in performance.

An app on my phone is providing me real time insights and decision support for my training and nutrition in support of achieving my goals. As a result, I am injured less, train more effectively and achieve better results on race day.

For Supply Chain

We need to redesign our supply chain models. We need to design new processes which are enabled by improvements in technology. However, today the form and function of technology is wrong

We need supply chain apps, which look like fitness apps not like today’s Advanced Planning Systems. Supply chain apps should be light and intuitive, providing insights and decision support. Supply chain teams will stop using Excel when it is no longer needed, trying replacing Excel with a new supply chain tool will continue to fail.

Technology and AI will help to identify connections which we are unaware of today. By connecting internal and external data, we will identify hidden opportunities to drive greater business value.

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Gains in performance of equipment Sports equipment has improved consistently over the years. The biggest gain is development of super-shoes; in 2017 Nike released the vaporfly, which is around 5 minutes faster over a marathon, since this innovation, shoes are now a further 2 minutes faster. Bikes are also faster, SwissSide, a spin off from Formula 1, takes a wholistic approach, considering the aerodynamics of the wheels, bike, rider and rider’s clothing. These gains are expensive, but offer around 5 mins reduction in time over a 180km bike leg. When winning margins are often seconds, every minute gained is essential.

I find it very interesting that there has been much more promotion about improvements in equipment. Improvements in shoes and bikes represent only a quarter of the overall gains we have seen in the past 10 years. However, equipment is tangible, marketable and encourages people to open their wallets. It is not unusal for amateur atheletes to spend $20,000 on the latest super bike, which will save a few minutes, while neglecting a properly structured training plan, which could save a few hours

For Supply Chain

Too much energy is being wasted on investing in the latest equipment or IT system without considering how it is linked to overall organisational goals or whether the tech is aligned with the organisation's culture; Often it is just a case of continuing to do the wrong thing faster. Making matters even worse, budgets are consumed on these investments, and constrained resources are used to implement them. We behave like the amateur athlete buying the lastest superbike.

We need to move away from a functonal view of technology, instead consider what value it brings, and how it is connected with the supply chain strategy and organisations' goals. Maybe we could invest in cheaper technology and spend more in building the organisation's competency.

The Future

I am optimistic that performance gains we have witnessed in the Ironman World Championship in the last 10 years is about to happen in supply chain: The elements we need are coming together. However, the change needs to start to by reevaluating all of the supply chain processes, overcoming the existing culture and finally by deploying the right technology which is suitable to take the company to the next phase of its strategy. We also need to learn from Athletes and develop a coaching culture to ensure that the long term focus is delivering the organisations goals.