- The Pakistan Cotton Ginners Association forecasts a 60% drop in cotton production, estimating around 6 million bales, which raises concerns for the agricultural sector. Cotton prices remain stable, and textile exports have risen by 15%.
- Fertilizer sales in September 2024 declined by 24.2% year-on-year, totaling 508,000 tonnes compared to 670,000 tonnes last year, primarily due to weak agronomic conditions.?
- Indian Foreign Minister Subrahmanyam Jaishankar will visit Pakistan to attend the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) summit on October 15 and 16.?
- Foreign investment in Pakistan's short-term government debt surged to $69.2 million in September, driven by improved economic conditions, including a stable currency and decreasing inflation.?
- Floods in northern Bangladesh have led to at least five deaths and over 100,000 people stranded due to heavy rains. The Sherpur district is significantly affected, with rising rivers submerging homes and roads, displacing thousands, and causing urgent rescue needs.
- A powerful explosion near Jinnah International Airport in Karachi killed two and injured nine, targeting foreign nationals. The blast damaged several vehicles, with the deceased identified as a driver near an oil tanker.?
AGRI-UPDATES - COMMODITIES, POLICY & DEVELOPMENTS
- Cotton Production to Drop 60%: The Pakistan Cotton Ginners Association forecasts a 60% drop in cotton production, estimating around 6 million bales, which raises concerns for the agricultural sector. Cotton prices remain stable, and textile exports have risen by 15%. The government plans to reduce electricity prices for textile mills, and the new PCGA chairman announced a Rs. 1 billion fund for cotton restoration. [BR]
- Pakistan to Export Rice to Malaysia: Pakistan will export 100,000 tons of rice to Malaysia, aiming to boost its economy. Information Minister Ataullah Tarar highlighted the success of Malaysian Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim's visit, reinforcing strong ties between the two nations. [BR]
- Pakistan to Resume Sheep, Goat Exports: Pakistan is set to lift a decade-old ban on commercial export of sheep and goats, responding to demand from Gulf countries. The Ministry of National Food Security and Research has finalized a summary for federal cabinet approval, with investment interest shown by Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, and the UAE. [Dawn]
- Fertilizer Export Exemption Sought: Due to restrictions under the Export Policy Order 2022, an investor in the Gwadar Free Zone is unable to export potassium sulphate fertilizer from a newly established plant. To resolve this and encourage investment, the Cabinet Committee on Chinese Investment Projects is seeking an exemption from the current import and export policies to facilitate shipments to overseas markets. [ET]
ENERGY - WEATHER, WATER & POWER
- PIA Privatization Delayed Again: The privatization of Pakistan International Airlines (PIACL) faces delays as potential bidders request more information, potentially extending the October 31, 2024, deadline. A Senate committee expressed dissatisfaction over the privatization minister's absence during a review of PIACL and power distribution company (DISCO) privatization efforts. [PT]
- OGDC Reports Strong Gas Sales: Oil & Gas Development Company (OGDC) reported improved gas sales, with a revenue collection of Rs561 billion in June 2024, reflecting a 10% YoY and 22% QoQ increase in cash sales. Over five years, gas sales constituted 42% of OGDC's revenue, and the company holds a 28% market share in local gas production. For more details, you can refer to the full report [The News]
- Cement Sales Drop 18%: Due to increased cement prices driven by "irrational" taxation and low demand, local sales have plummeted 18%, reaching 2017 levels. In September 2024, cement dispatches fell by 5.63% to 3.540 million tons, while local sales totaled 2.650 million tons compared to 3.233 million tons in September 2023. For more details, check the full report. [ET]
- Fertilizer Sales Down 24.2%: Fertilizer sales in September 2024 declined by 24.2% year-on-year, totaling 508,000 tonnes compared to 670,000 tonnes last year, primarily due to weak agronomic conditions. This data was compiled by Arif Habib Limited, with the official monthly report from the National Fertilizer Development Company expected mid-month. [MG]
- Government Plans to Rebase Tariffs: The Federal government plans to rebase electricity tariffs to January 1, moving from July 1, to reduce financial burdens on consumers during winter. The Finance Ministry supports this proposal, contingent on no financial implications, and suggests consulting with development partners like the IMF and World Bank before submitting it to the Economic Coordination Committee. [BR]
- PQEPC Threatens Plant Shutdown: Port Qasim Electric Power Company Limited (PQEPC) has threatened to shut down its 1,320 MW coal-fired power plant if the government does not clear its outstanding dues of Rs 88.2 billion (approximately $317 million) that have been pending for over six months. The CEO, Liang Yongbin, expressed appreciation for the government's efforts but warned that continued delays could worsen the situation. [BR]
- PPIB Urges KE to Expedite Thar Coal Project: The Private Power & Infrastructure Board (PPIB) has urged K-Electric to expedite studies for a 300-MW Thar coal-fired project to initiate the request for proposals (RFP) on time. Following directives from the Special Investment Facilitation Council, PPIB requested KE to conduct a feasibility study and seek guidance on utilizing documentation from Siddiqsons Energy Limited's similar project. [BR]
- Conflict Over K-Electric Subsidy Data: The Auditor General of Pakistan and K-Electric are in conflict over the provision of subsidy data from February 2004-05 to 2012-23 due to discrepancies in subsidy claims. A special audit report indicated significant issues with record non-production and scope limitations during DAC meetings related to K-Electric’s tariff differential subsidy claims. [BR]
PAKISTAN - ECONOMICS, POLITICS & SECURITY
- Calm Returns After PTI Clashes: The federal capital is calm after clashes between law enforcement and Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) supporters, with services restored. PTI is concerned about the disappearance of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa Chief Minister Ali Amin Gandapur, as protests against a constitutional amendment and calls for Imran Khan's release led to school closures, which will end on Monday. [BR]
- Indian FM to Attend SCO Summit: Indian Foreign Minister Subrahmanyam Jaishankar will visit Pakistan to attend the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) summit on October 15 and 16. This was confirmed by the Indian foreign ministry spokesman during a weekly press briefing. [Dawn]
- Foreign Investment in T-Bills Rises: Foreign investment in Pakistan's short-term government debt surged to $69.2 million in September, driven by improved economic conditions, including a stable currency and decreasing inflation. The recent $7 billion IMF loan program, with an initial disbursement of $1.03 billion, is expected to attract more foreign capital. Despite a $7.6 million outflow from Market Treasury Bills, the country netted a total inflow of $61.6 million into T-bills for the month. [PT]
- Exemption Sought for Gwadar Investments: The Cabinet Committee on Chinese Investment Projects is seeking an exemption from the import and export policy to improve the investment climate in the Gwadar Free Zone. An investor who established a potassium sulphate fertilizer plant there has been unable to export due to restrictions imposed by the Export Policy Order 2022. [ET]
- World Bank - Pakistan Business Challenges: The World Bank's "Business Ready" report places Pakistan in the fourth quintile, highlighting a challenging business environment marked by weak regulations and public services. Meanwhile, Federal Minister Attaullah Tarar noted that Pakistan's economic policies are receiving international recognition, with improving indicators and increased foreign visits. He also praised Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif for effectively addressing Palestine and Kashmir issues at the UN General Assembly. [BR] [BR]
INTERNATIONAL - MARKET, POLITICS, SECURITY & DEVELOPMENT
- Israeli Genocide: Israeli airstrikes hit southern Beirut overnight, marking the most intense assault since the escalation against Hezbollah last month. Witnesses reported loud explosions and visible flashes, with significant destruction across the area. Streets were left in ruins, and smoke rose from the aftermath, indicating it was the most violent night yet in the ongoing conflict. [Dawn] [Dawn] [ET]
- Record 973 Migrants Cross Channel, 4 Dead: A record 973 migrants crossed the Channel on Saturday, coinciding with the deaths of four individuals, including a two-year-old boy, during the journey. This marks the highest daily total in 2024, bringing the number of fatalities this year to 51 as over 26,600 migrants have attempted the dangerous crossing. [ET]
- Florida Declares Emergency for Milton: Florida's governor has declared a state of emergency as Tropical Storm Milton approaches, potentially strengthening into a major hurricane by midweek. This storm threatens to impact areas still recovering from Hurricane Helene, which struck as a Category 4 hurricane on September 26. [BR]
- Xi & Putin Mark 75 Years of Ties: On the 75th anniversary of diplomatic relations between China and Russia, Presidents Xi Jinping and Vladimir Putin exchanged messages, expressing hopes for future growth in their ties. Xi emphasized his commitment to strengthening cooperation and promoting high-quality development and modernization between the two nations. [Dawn]
- Floods in Bangladesh: Floods in northern Bangladesh have led to at least five deaths and over 100,000 people stranded due to heavy rains. The Sherpur district is significantly affected, with rising rivers submerging homes and roads, displacing thousands, and causing urgent rescue needs. Authorities are also concerned about severe agricultural damage, particularly to rice crops. [Dawn]
- Explosion Near Karachi Airport Kills Two: A powerful explosion near Jinnah International Airport in Karachi killed two and injured nine, targeting foreign nationals. The blast damaged several vehicles, with the deceased identified as a driver near an oil tanker. Sindh Home Minister Ziaul Lanjar confirmed the explosion occurred at a location where a bomb squad assists visitors. [BR] [Dawn] [ET]
- FBR to Transform Tax Offices: The Federal Board of Revenue (FBR) plans to transform all tax offices into model tax offices (MTOs) by January 2028, focusing on digitalization, enhanced auditing, and stronger enforcement to combat smuggling and close the tax gap. This initiative aims to streamline operations and improve tax collection efficiency. [Dawn]
- Opinion: Is De-Dollarisation on the Move? - “Pakistan’s heavy dependence on loans from multilaterals led by the US-led West as well as the Paris Club makes any attempt towards de-dollarisation not a viable option at this stage and leaves us very susceptible to US sanctions as well as the reluctance of friendly countries to extend any assistance without being on a Western controlled IMF programme.” - By Anjum Ibrahim [BR]
