Cost, scale and potential of pursuing a 95% decarbonised power grid in Cyprus
What would take to supply the electricity demand of a country like?#Cyprus?with 95%?#zerocarbon?#renewableelectricity, from?#wind?and?#solar?firmed up by?#energystoragesystems?
It all depends on the roundtrip?#efficiency?and build cost of the chosen?#storagesolution.
If we work from the assumption?#wind?and?#pvsolar?is coupled with a highly efficient storage solution like?#lithiumionbatteries?(LFP type), at a roundtrip efficiency of 87% and cost parameters as per?Pacific Northwest National Laboratory's estimates for 2030, up to 5.2 TWh per year of demand could be met across the grid by coupling 0.95 GW of?#windfarms?with 1.80GW of?#solarfarms?and 6.16GWh of 3.89 hours deep storage. The levelised cost of that is estimated at $88 per MWh.
If we work from the assumption a similar?#greenpower?fleet is coupled with a less efficient storage solution like?#saltcarverns?based?#hydrogenstorage?systems, at a lower roundtrip efficiency of 31% and cost parameters as per PNNL's estimates for 2030, the same 5.2 TWh per year of demand could be met across the grid by coupling 1.39GW of?#windfarms?with 1.19GW of?#solarfarms?and 46.5GWh of ~24 hours deep storage. The levelised cost of that is estimated at a 26% higher $111 per MWh.
The much larger the storage depth and overall upfront capital requirement are for the less efficient hydrogen-based solution result mainly from the much lower roundtrip efficiency of 30%.
In both cases, a target project IRR of 5% and overall system lifetime of 25 years were assumed. For the?#lithium?#battery?system, a technical lifetime of 16 years was assumed, with a corresponding adjustment to the build cost to account for replacement costs within the lifetime. For the?#hydrogen?#storagesystem, a technical lifetime of 25 years. For simplicity, variable cost factors were ignored, but they could be relevant in the?#hydrogen?based solution.
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Detailed calculations can be found here.
Note these results are based on a simplistic and desktop-based co-optimisation using?Microsoft?#Excel's?#Solver?add-in (by FrontlineSolvers) and single samples for key demand and supply elements. A more robust and complete analysis, like the one required for investment grade capacity planning and simulation, would be achievable using multi-sample stochastic methods like the ones featured in?Energy Exemplar's?#PLEXOS?simulation software.
Just to be clear, Cyprus was picked here and framed in total abstraction of what is currently happening there. It is just an illustration of how storage systems are key for firming up wind and solar to a reasonable level of supply reliability.
I leveraged from?Paul Deane?and?Maarten Brinkerink?'s fantastic?#PLEXOS?World dataset to create the following tool, which served as the basis for my hypothetical 2020 hourly demand series for Cyprus: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1kaJ5n1yPsHHhH14IkYZXgVHOGovYgZvwIx67Rxhbd5A/edit?usp=sharing
Seeking Planet Friendly Solutions
2 年Can't get there with lithium storage. Why not simply store heat?
Green Chemical Engineer
2 年Sometimes I wish I lived t at 35 degrees latitude or lower like Cyprus and others like Australia etc A renewable life would be so easy in winter with still some solar daily and mild winters. Here in the UK and much of the EU and chunks of Asia at higher latitudes with cold dark winters its a very different story. Little solar leaving dependency on wind which can disappear as it did in much of the EU for 11 days in early March 2021. But keep it a secret, no one likes to admit it here, and just hope it will be fine. https://www.dhirubhai.net/posts/activity-6949400843704020992-s64A?utm_source=share&utm_medium=member_desktop
Project Origination Platform in Renewable Energy | Executive Director
2 年I started to read your post full of hopes that an offtaker would have been appointed by the gvt ??
Director/Geoscience Consultant, Paetoro Consulting UK Ltd. Subsurface resource risk, estimation & planning.
2 年There is perhaps an important qualifier here -accepting that your premises are hypothetical - that suitable salt caverns are not present just anywhere (i.e. not present everywhere). If they are proposed, then the first question is always their feasible siting density and volume, which is a function of not just geological but also environmental and social land-use considerations. For what it is worth, it would be my understanding that the salt cavern potential of Cyprus is almost negligible, though perhaps others can correct me. https://www.researchgate.net/figure/Distribution-of-potential-salt-cavern-sites-across-Europe-with-their-corresponding-energy_fig5_336607889