The Cost of Neglect: Why Timely Census Data Is Crucial for Namibia’s Growth

The Danger of Outdated Data: Implications for Namibia’s Economy and Business Planning

Introduction

In a 2006 Cabinet review meeting, former President Hifikepunye Pohamba aptly stated that failing to plan equates to planning to fail. This foresight has never been more relevant than in the wake of the recent Namibia Statistics Agency (NSA) census results. The updated population figures, which significantly surpassed previous estimates, underscore the critical importance of timely and accurate data collection for effective governance and strategic planning.

A Wake-Up Call for Planning and Resource Allocation

The preliminary results of the 2023 census reveal a population exceeding three million, a sharp increase from the 2.6 million projected for the year. The proportion of youth up to 35 years old has surged to over 71%, compared to 60% in 2011. Additionally, urban areas now house 49.5% of the population, a notable 25% increase from the previous census. This demographic shift highlights a troubling trend: a growing number of Namibians are migrating from rural areas to urban centers in search of better opportunities, contributing to the expansion of informal settlements where living conditions are dire.

These revelations point to a systemic issue: the government’s failure to prioritize and fund the census process has led to a disconnect between policy-making and actual demographic trends. By delaying the census, the government has essentially planned to fail in terms of resource allocation and strategic development.

The Perils of Outdated Data

The implications of outdated data are far-reaching. For years, government officials have relied on inaccurate or outdated figures to make critical decisions regarding resource distribution, infrastructure development, and social services. This has led to misallocation of funds and inadequate responses to emerging challenges. For example, the last employment figures were collected in 2018, and even then, the data was manipulated to downplay the severity of unemployment. The absence of updated employment statistics exacerbates the issue, leaving policymakers in the dark about the current job market and the effectiveness of educational programs.

Economic and Social Consequences

Outdated data poses several dangers to Namibia’s economy and social fabric:

1. Misguided Economic Planning: Accurate demographic and employment data are essential for crafting effective economic policies. Without current data, economic strategies may be based on obsolete assumptions, leading to misguided investments and ineffective interventions.
2. Inefficient Resource Allocation: The inability to accurately assess population needs and trends results in inefficient allocation of resources. For instance, without precise data on urbanization and informal settlements, the government may struggle to address the needs of rapidly growing urban populations and informal housing challenges.
3. Business Projections and Planning: For businesses, outdated or inaccurate data can lead to flawed market analyses and poor strategic decisions. Companies rely on up-to-date demographic and economic information to make informed decisions about market opportunities, product development, and expansion strategies. The lack of reliable data can hinder business growth and profitability.
4. Social Inequality: The disconnect between data collection and actual conditions can exacerbate social inequalities. For example, the growing number of school dropouts and unskilled labor highlights the need for targeted educational and vocational training programs. Without current data, addressing these issues effectively becomes a challenge.

The Call for Action

The Namibia Statistics Agency (NSA) has highlighted the urgent need for N$250 million to conduct comprehensive and timely data collection. This investment is not merely a bureaucratic expense but a critical component of effective governance and strategic planning. Accurate data enables the government to make informed decisions, allocate resources efficiently, and address emerging challenges proactively.

Conclusion

The recent census results serve as a stark reminder of the dangers associated with outdated data. The gap between projected and actual population figures underscores the need for timely and accurate data collection to inform policy-making, business planning, and resource allocation. As Namibia faces evolving demographic and economic challenges, prioritizing data accuracy and investing in the NSA's mandate are essential steps towards ensuring sustainable development and effective governance.

By recognizing the importance of up-to-date data, Namibia can better navigate its complex social and economic landscape, turning potential time bombs into opportunities for growth and advancement.