The Cost of Inaction: Failing to Meet Global Targets to End the AIDS Epidemic

Statement of Erik Lamontagne, UNAIDS' Senior Advisor on Inequality and the Economics of HIV, during the International AIDS Society Press Conference on Conference Abstracts

It’s an honour for UNAIDS to be here today to address a critical issue: the cost of inaction in ending AIDS and ending inequality.

What do we mean by “cost of inaction”? We mean the direct and indirect foregone benefits we miss out on when we fail to do the right thing.

For example, the right thing includes scaling up antiretroviral therapy, which reduces HIV-related deaths and new HIV infections, and also enables those treated to contribute economically and socially. The cost is the loss suffered when we don’t.

To measure the cost failing to take the actions needed,? we compare the scenario of the HIV Target to a counterfactual scenario where countries maintain the coverage rate of the different HIV activities at the level they were in 2020.

Our study highlights three areas where failing to meet the AIDS Target can be devastating:

1. Economic Impact

Failing to meet the targets will lead to an economic cost of inaction of US$ 10,291 per person among all low- and middle-income countries by 2050.

2. Human Cost

Perhaps the most poignant aspect of our study is the human cost. Every life lost is a tragedy. Every new infection is a failure to protect the vulnerable. By 2050, the human cost of inaction could reach nearly 35 million more new infections and 17.7 million additional AIDS-related deaths compared to a business-as-usual scenario.

3. Social Consequences

The cost of inaction of failing to end AIDS also implies failing to end inequality. The foregone benefits we are talking about relate to gender inequality, health inequality, education inequality, economic inequalities, and more.

But there is hope.

Meeting the AIDS target would avoid these human and economic costs. It would also generate a net return on investment of US$14.8 per capita for each dollar invested between now and 2050.

Investing in people-centred prevention, universal access to antiretroviral therapy, and ensuring equal rights for all are within our reach. This is the path to take.