CosimPol - Version 1.3 Released

A new updated version, CosimPol 1.3 has just been released. CosimPol is a Covid-19 Simulator for Policymakers. It is based on a system dynamics (SD) model that applies standard SEIR epidemiological modelling adjusted for the characteristics of Covid-19 as it is currently understood. There are many non-linear dynamics that affect the spread of the disease. There is much that we do not yet know about the SARS-CoV-2 virus and the pandemic.

The tool is intended to demystify modelling and to make underlying assumptions as transparent as possible, thereby, enabling the user to test alternative assumptions and hypotheses. This aims to improve mental models of decision makers and lay-people alike and to improve the policy making process.

CosimPol is periodically updated as new knowledge becomes available and our scientific and practical understanding of the pandemic increases. It is designed such that most of the key parameters are user- configurable. It may be parameterised to any country, provided that the requisite input data is available.

The simulator may be used for predictive purposes, if the required data is available. Its main benefit, however, is to test current assumptions and their concomitant impacts on the spread of the pandemic. In this way, it offers a useful tool for critical dialogue and a means for mediating between different scientific and policy positions. It is a tool to test a variety of possible policy perspectives drawing on the best knowledge, data and scientific minds available at a given time, while addressing the sociological impacts of how the scientific knowledge is applied and used, for societal benefit in policy-making and in the design of interventions.

Version 1.3 is a significant update and adds the following new features:

• An additional path from Asymptomatic to Recoveries. Asymptomatic cases do not necessarily all become symptomatic. The user can select the proportion of asymptomatic cases that go through the losing infectiousness and recoveries path.
•  A new factor to include initial Non-susceptible that enables the user to cater for age or other cohorts, if for example, the scientific understanding is that children (or other cohorts) are unlikely to get infected or to be vectors of the disease.
• All of these are under the control of the user given one’s assumptions about these parameters.
• A new page with links to resources on the modelling paradigm applied, the benefits and drawbacks of modelling and how modelling may be used for navigating social complexity.

CosimPol 1.3 may be accessed here: https://exchange.iseesystems.com/public/shamim/cosimpol/index.html#page1