??The corporate AI agenda – a high-octane mix that will make AI's impact visible in 2024

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Consider two numbers. Six and ninety-two. These two numbers speak to the pace of corporate adoption of new generative AI tools. In research this summer, Tom Davenport of Babson College surveyed 334 chief digital officers about how they were using generative AI.

Even though the technology has only recently been commercialised, remarkably 6% had one generative AI use case in production deployment. Understand how important 6% as a threshold is. Technologies are not adopted linearly. They go through an S-curve where they experience a period of exponential installation. The curve slows down for the laggards. That ramp has typically started at the 6% level.

The second number to understand is 92%. In November, OpenAI announced that it was supporting 2 million developers, including teams from 92% of the Fortune 500 . This is grassroots interest. Roughly over 80% of large firms that do not have generative AI in production deployment have developers playing with OpenAI’s tools.

Davenport’s data doesn’t have a perfect overlap with the Fortune 500, but it is a helpful proxy. The stark gap between CDO’s awareness of employees experimenting at an individual level (less than 30%) and OpenAI’s 92% number. It suggests — and my informal conversations bear this out — that some bosses are unclear about where the frontline developer has moved.

Beyond the technologists, other members of the C-suite are excited by the potential of this new wave of tools. Speaking to several dozen European CFOs earlier this year, the interest in generative AI as a tool for productivity (and, given these were CFOs, cost-cutting) was palpable.

Gen AI has electrified bosses. The C-suite is leading in employee adoption. This certainly wasn’t the case with the Internet in the 1990s when senior executives had to be dragged into the Web kicking and screaming. In 1999, when I was advising a major telco, the then-CEO told me he would never allow customers to pay or even access their bills online. He was right. He left the business a year or so later.

The combination of eagerness from the top and grassroots developer adoption creates a high-octane mix.

In 2024 and beyond, that 6% will inexorably rise towards the 92%. It may take a few years because first it takes time to roll out IT projects, talent is short, prioritisation is challenging. But the groundwork has been laid.

Points to consider: Firms will be under pressure to deliver robust applications on a technology that is, in many cases, not robust — and facing various types of legal challenges. At the same time, more straightforward applications will be available to companies. If these projects succeed in improving productivity, there may be an immediate impact on the rate of new hires or even signs of widespread job cuts. 2023 was too soon to see those impacts. This coming year they might be visible.

?? This is an excerpt from my 2024 Horizon Scan. Here's what you need to consider as you face the unknowns of this year:

• How to think about the unknowability and the transition time we are experiencing? Read here
• The deepening of the energy and intelligence fabric — on the business, science and market expansion of new energy and AI. Read here
• Making sense of the allure of small technologies and decentralisation as they gather speed. Read here
• The society of AI, collective intelligence, and humanoid robots. Read here