Coronavirus : The relevance of the Stockdale Paradox

In these strange times, we wonder what the world will be like post Covid-19 and how we should best prepare for it. We turn to thinkers, maxims, mottos and theories that marked us to help us take action. That is how what is known today as the Stockdale paradox came back to my mind.

James Stockdale (1923-2005) was a U.S. Navy vice admiral, one of the most decorated officers in the history of the United States. He was made prisoner and tortured for 8 years during the Vietnam war. Once free he told of his experience and delivered a capital and unexpected lesson: the most optimistic prisoners did not survive. They were persuaded they would soon be released but as it became apparent to them that this was not to be, they became discouraged faster than the other prisoners and lost the energy and will power needed to keep going. Those who survived weren’t necessarily defeatists, they were also convinced, deep down, that they too would make it out. However, they handled the ordeal they were faced with without looking for reassurances. This is what enabled them to get through them. Hence the paradox: they had to be both convinced of their liberation, all the while having the courage to face the brutal reality.

The Stockdale paradox has greatly inspired the business world and company strategies. In the current context, where the matter of life and death is once again at the forefront, it regains its real significance. We see it every day, the scourge of the pandemic does not affect everyone in the same manner. Certain countries, certain companies, certain individuals will pull through better than others. And the Stockdale paradox provides us with a first interpretation key. In the face of an ordeal, we must take stock of the difficulties without attempting to minimise them, all the while remaining convinced of a positive outcome. We need a narrative, a story of the way out... This is most certainly what China must have done, the population measured the scope and gravity of the situation all the while striving to turn this crisis into an opportunity to progress, for instance on a technological level. For us, who are in the eye of the storm, it is time to face the challenges ahead of us, whether sanitary, social or economic. And to get to work on the narrative of our future in which we will collectively be stronger.