CORONAVIRUS - it IS a Pandemic!

I've spent 12 days and 120 hours investigating this virus. Here is the most up to date and accurate (as per current data) info we know.

- It IS a Pandemic as it is spreading on 2 or more Continents despite not yet being labelled as such publicly. It will be – soon!

- SARS – COV2 is the virus's technical name and it causes COVID-19 which is the disease name.

- Severe cases cause respiratory illness (lung disease) and it's associated life threatening complications which can lead to death in the most critical patients.

- 4 countries have epidemic spread being China, Japan, South Korea and Iran and Italy too by all accounts.

- North Korea claims NO cases yet it has land borders with China and South Korea.

Take their word for no cases with a big pinch of pink salt!

- Current global infections at over 80,421.

- Current worldwide deaths at over 2,708.

- Current infected countries – 40. It's rising every day.

- Deaths outside China – over 43 in 9 countries so far. It's rising every day.

These deaths have occurred within 1 week of becoming symptomatic. That is alarming and indicates that many more can unfortunately be expected in the coming weeks.

- Over 3000 healthcare workers in China have been infected and many of them even with precautions such as PPE (Personal Protective Equipment) and isolation/quarantine.

There is however a severe shortage of the PPE leaving many healthcare workers at risk.

- Over 6 healthcare workers in China have died including 3 Dr's on the front-line treating Coronavirus.

- Corona viruses are not new and are usually found in animals until they find a way to jump species (SARS/MERS and now COVID-19).

In the case of this current virus it's suspected to have crossed from bats to pangolin’s (intermediary) and then to humans and is now human to human transmissible.

Pangolin's are trafficked around the world by the way!

- Corona means crown in Latin and the viruses (corona) when viewed under a microscope have spikes on them like a crown hence the name.

- It binds to what is known as the ACE2 receptor and this is how it gets into your cells and infects you.

ACE2 receptors are prevalent in the lungs and heart and also the circulatory system (they line the walls of blood vessels).

- The virus replicates quickly within the body hence the rapid progression of severe disease in those at high risk who have weakened defences (immunodeficiency/auto immune disease/cancer) and/or pre-existing conditions such as diabetes/heart disease/high blood pressure and respiratory illness/lung disease (asthma/bronchitis/pneumonia/COPD/lung cancer).

HIGHLY CONTAGIOUS! This Is How it spreads.

It is human to human transmissible whereas before mutation a coronavirus could only cross from the infected animal to the humans in close contact.

Human to human spread is via the mucous membranes or by being inhaled directly into your lungs hence how/why this causes lower respiratory disease (ACE2 receptors in lungs).

In other words any contact with the virus which results in entry to your body via the nose, mouth and eyes known as your T - zone (danger zone) or any inhalation of the virus from air that is contaminated.

Note: Any open wound could also be an entry point but the mucous membranes and your airway are the main entry points.

METHODS OF SPREAD.

1.) DROPLETS. Any droplet of saliva/mucous from coughs/sneezes/nasal drip when you are in close proximity to the carrier (2 metres approx – more for sneezes).

2.) AIRBORNE. It is aerosolised and travels through the air alive in tiny particles (20-400 nanometers) for a substantial (unknown) distance before it's death between 20 mins to 1 hour later (estimated).

Therefore any air that is contaminated with the virus can spread it through vents, pipes, door gaps, air conditioners (rarely will they have filters capable of killing viruses) etc etc.

3.) TOUCH. Infected surfaces that you touch and then transfer to your T-zone. It can survive for up to a day (estimated) on most surfaces.

4.) BODY FLUIDS. Faeces, urine and of course sexual fluids. In the case of faeces or urine it becomes aerosolised during the flush.

IT'S NOT THE FLU, SARS or MERS. IT'S WORSE!

1.) It is NOT any version of the flu nor it is similar to the flu apart from the early onset symptoms.

It is approx 24x to 31x more deadly than the flu according to the current data.

The flu kills 0.01% - 0.05% of patients approx. COVID-19 has a current (thought to be artificially high due to early days and incomplete data) fatality rate of 2.4 – 3.1%.

However, the good news is this is expected to reduce substantially when more accurate data (better testing and more honest reporting) is available so you can consider this a worst case scenario %.

2.) It is NOT Sars (Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome) despite being a coronavirus like Sars.

Sars was much easier to contain and treat despite it's higher fatality rate (9.6% and 774 deaths) and only infected 8000 people approx during it's entire epidemic.

Sars was most contagious only during symptoms (not airborne either) whereas COVID-19 is contagious before (asymptomatic), during and after symptoms.

All the main viruses are known to be contagious (less than during acute phase obviously but the risk is present) even after recovery for a period of 1-3 weeks (see info graphic in comment 1 below).

3.) It is NOT Mers (Middle Eastern Respiratory Syndrome) despite also being a coronavirus.

Mers was only transmissible from animal to human, specifically camels, via direct or indirect contact to the infected camel.

HOW IT KILLS!

1.) CORONAVIRUS PNEUMONIA

This leads to fluid build up in the lungs due to severe inflammation of the alveoli which decreases oxygen transfer to the blood and prevents the removal of carbon dioxide from the blood.

Severe oxygen deficiency occurs leading to other serious complications* and death results from septic shock, cardiac arrest or other organ/s failure.

2.) SEVERE ARDS – Acute Respiratory Distress Syndrome

This is similar to Pneumonia in that it causes severe alveoli inflammation and catastrophic oxygen deficiency but it's clinically different, more serious and very complex to treat.

One difference is it must be bi-lateral (both lungs) to be classified as ARDS and it progresses rapidly, is extremely complicated to treat with serious complications* and also causes death by heart failure/attack, septic shock or other organ/s failure.

* There is often a secondary bacterial infection that occurs in late stage lung disease which is why you'll hear of treatment including antibiotics (which don't kill viruses) even though the virus initially caused the disease.

It's the combination of virus/bacteria, lack of oxygen plus the immune system overload (like a car engine running on max revs before blowing up) that ultimately leads to shock/death.

HOW IS IT DIAGNOSED?

- RT PCR – Real-Time Polymerase Chain Reaction is a lab test from a mouth and nose swab which will detect this virus and rule out the Flu or other illness.

This must be sent away for analysis and isn't done on site.

- Clinical Diagnosis On Site is examination by the Dr. to assess symptoms and will include a chest X-ray/CT scan to identify infiltrate (fluid) in the lungs.

This is not conclusive for COVID-19 but the Dr's can draw their own conclusions and decide on a course of rapid supportive treatment if they suspect it is COVID-19.

TESTING IS NOT ACCURATE!

- Testing can be highly inaccurate (returns false negatives) or simply unavailable (not enough kits) which means that clinical diagnosis is relied upon and this isn't optimal for early diagnosis/treatment and isolation/quarantine precautions and the prevention of spread.

There are many people who tested negative only later to test positive after reporting more severe symptoms.

The issue here is a mouth/nose swab simply doesn't contain the virus if it is lower respiratory (below the voice box) and early stages or asymptomatic.

As it progresses the virus replicates and becomes detectable in the nose/throat provided a sneeze/cough is now presenting in the patient.

HOW IT'S TREATED.

As with all viruses treatment is what we call supportive as opposed to curative whilst your own immune system fights the infection from within.

In the simplest of terms your white blood cells (immune army) attack the virus and form anti-bodies which then kill it off and prevent it's spread.

Then, your immune system deals with the damage that has been caused such as the inflammation in the alveoli and fluid build up in the lungs (if it got to that stage).

Usually you'll heal yourself in 10-14 days from a typical virus, 14 – 21 days from a more severe case and 21 + days if you are critical (in ICU) and are fortunate enough to recover.

You may be given over the counter meds or prescribed stronger if needed to support you throughout your battle with the bug.

AN OVERVIEW OF TREAMENT.

- Pain killers to lower fever such as Paracetamol/Aspirin/Tylenol or stronger in a ICU setting of course.

- Anti-inflammatories such as Ibuprofen and other NSAID's and again, stronger in a ICU.

- Anti-viral medication.

- Ant-biotic medication – for the management or prevention of secondary infections.

- IV fluids to keep you hydrated.

- Oxygen therapy.

- Advanced oxygen therapy which is ventilation and paralysis where they intentionally sedate you so you don't fight the ventilator.

The point of supportive treatments are to keep you alive whilst your own immune system works or the anti-viral or test medications (they are testing new meds and re-purposing existing ones) have the desired effect and you overcome the virus and begin to recover naturally.

THE GOOD NEWS.

- 80% of cases are mild and result only in cold like symptoms and shouldn't require any advanced medical assistance.

- In mild cases full recovery can be expected within 14 days post symptoms. Most viral infections are overcome by the immune system within 10-14 days.

- Infants (under 1) are at very low risk with few cases recorded, none of them severe and all fully recovered.

- The young in general are not at great risk and neither are pre-teens, teens, young adults or most* people under 50** years approx.

* One Dr. who died was only 31 sadly and other younger people are being affected seriously so being younger is not a guarantee of safety.

** This age range may change as we get more accurate data from the countries outside of China and remember if you have any pre-existing illness you are at higher risk regardless of age.

NOTE: The young are the well known virus spreaders so even though they are relatively safe they can and often will, as every parent will attest, infect the entire household and therefore protecting them from infection should always be a priority.

- It MAY be seasonal meaning in nature meaning less infectious and deadly in warm climates. The current spread to colder (but also in close proximity to China) countries supports this theory. This is an early opinion amongst experts and not a fact.

- Cooking kills viruses (over 70 degrees all the way through the food) so food is low risk for transmission provided it's well cooked.

THE BAD NEWS.

- The current C.F.R – Case Fatality Rate is approx 2.4-3.1 % which is quite high but the experts from around the world agree that this is significantly higher than the true figure which they are estimating is 1% or less at the time of writing this.

Why? Because they believe the Chinese reported numbers of cases is 5 to 10 times lower than the true number infected due to a lack of testing of suspected carriers (as in a large % of those in house lockdown in China).

If the total number infected is substantially higher then the C.F.R will drop significantly.

The catch 22 here is that those who sadly pass away at home in China are also not counted in the current C.F.R.

- People over 50 years old / smokers / living in polluted areas / have existing disease or illness such as current respiratory issues / heart disease / high blood pressure / diabetes / immune suppression / auto-immune disease / cancer are ALL at higher risk of infection and serious/critical disease.

- Serious disease is at approx 16 - 20% currently.

- Critical disease is at approx 5% currently.

- Most critical are the elderly over 60 yrs (remember we do have cases with people in their 30's and the death of a 31 yr old Dr. in China).

- Ro – the reproduction number is 3 – 6.7 people meaning for every 1 person infected they can infect 3 – 6.7 others.

1 lady was suspected of causing the infection of 80+ in a South Korean religious sect gathering at their Church.

She is what's called a Superspreader and these people are hyper contagious and/or simply come into close contact with many others people for various reasons.

- The Ro needs to be 1 or under to prevent the spread of the virus and stop the rapid growth of cases.

- Men are more susceptible at a rate of 5:3 over women.

- Incubation (time from infection to symptoms) for most is from 2-12 days BUT some are over 14 days and even up to 24. One man was symptom free for 27 days!

- Asymptomatic people ARE contagious and can be without symptoms yet still spread the virus.

- The length of illness once symptomatic is around 14-21 days in severe but not critical cases. The recovery time for critical patients varies (you can expect over 3 weeks!).

- There is no natural herd immunity meaning no fire breaks which prevents spread.

The term NOVEL means new in biology. This is a Novel Coronavirus as it has never been seen in humans before and therefore no-one has any natural immunity / anti bodies that will neutralise the virus before it is able to replicate.

Some people do have stronger immune systems and therefore neutralise it but they still need to produce the anti-bodies via their immune response after the virus has infected their cells.

- There is no vaccine!

Despite claims from some companies (optimistic/exaggerated) that they have created one already, there is NO available vaccine.

The earliest a vaccine can be made, tested, manufactured and administered is at best 12 months and more likely 18 months away even if one was/is successfully tested in the lab today.

It then needs to move to animal testing followed by human double blind placebo controlled trials and then, if successful (meaning it doesn't do more harm than good), mass manufacturing needs to take place to satisfy the global demand.

It's laborious time consuming work and the current virus could mutate during this time making the vaccine ineffective in 12-18 months.

- The Plague Ship - disastrous quarantine effort resulting in 20% infection rate on the ship.

There is no doubt it spread through the air since passengers were isolated to their rooms with minimum deck exposure and 6 feet distance required between them.

This environment was literally a virus's dream and a cruise ship passenger's nightmare!

- The ship demonstrates that the same would apply to any enclosed spaces with lots of people and recycled air such as buses, trains, planes, hospitals, offices, barracks and prisons etc..

- Taxis are high risk due to the volume of passengers daily.

- The growth in international cases is exponential with 40 countries infected.

This means an alarming rapid increase daily with cases doubling in most countries every 4 - 7 days and even faster as has happened in South Korea.

THE UGLY NEWS.

- South Korean cases doubled every day for 5 days and are still rising rapidly due to what they believe to be 2 large clusters of infections. They have 994 cases in just over a week and 10 deaths!

10 deaths in just over a week shows a frightening speed of progression from fever/cough to critical (needing oxygen and ICU) and then death

This should be a 2-3 week progression, not 1 week.

- Over 6 healthcare workers have died including 3 Dr's on the frontline treating Coronavirus who had immediate access to critical care.

This includes the 1 st Dr. to discover the virus and raise the alarm, the Head physician of one of the treating hospitals in Wuhan (51 yrs old) and a 31 year old male Dr. treating coronavirus patients.

These Dr's had immediate access to critical care yet tragically still couldn't be saved!

This demonstrates the severity of this disease once it becomes Pneumonia/ARDS and the speed at which it can go from severe to death.

- China are re-quarantining people who were released AFTER recovery from the virus but tested again and found to still have the virus. They have been put into another 14 days quarantine.

So, they were isolated for 14-21 days already and now isolated again. All that time away from their family, out of work, no money coming in on top of the very worrisome health threat they faced.

Imagine the stress, fear and worry for these people and their families and the implications this could have for the rest of the world.

Global governments may have no choice but to extend quarantine of all suspected and recovered patients from 14 days to 21 days or more!

- It has been detected in countries/people with NO epidemiological connection to China at all which raises huge concerns. There is no way to trace where/who it came from.

- You could be infected a second time after initial recovery.

A second infection can be more deadly due to a phenomenon known as ADE - antibody dependant enhancement where the immune response can actually make the virus worse by opening up cells for the virus giving another way to enter in addition to the ACE2 receptor.

This in turn speeds up the disease progression and can lead to critical condition and death even faster than severe ARDS.

- A number of countries are deliberately under reporting, simply not testing so they don't have to report or don't have the tests available.

E.g: China, USA (dodgy test kits sent by CDC), Thailand, Iran (political reasons?) & North Korea at the time of writing this.

- This IS a Pandemic and it will get significantly worse worldwide. A pandemic is defined as epidemic spread on 2 or more continents.

- Most Governments in the supposed 1st world and their Healthcare systems are NOT prepared for this in any way, shape or form.

Remember, this has a severe rate of 16-20% and a critical rate of 5%. The resources simply do not exist to manage numbers of patients of this magnitude and as a direct result of that, casualties will rise and the case fatality rate will rise also.

Meaning: DO NOT rely on your Government for you and your family's protection and health!

In contrast South Korea, Japan, Hong Kong, Singapore and Italy are doing an excellent job despite the difficulty to contain an airborne virus and they are also providing real time and accurate info to their citizens.

- 3rd world countries have no capability or resources to manage a disease outbreak of COVID-19 if it spreads to them. E.g countries within Africa and the like.

- Economically, this is a catastrophic global event that's destroyed local economies in China and is flowing on to the supply chain for EVERY business worldwide that relies on China for their tier 1 and tier 2 supplies (they can't do business without these).

Global manufacturing is down 30% or more and shipping of stock from China is practically non existent (other than what is already in transit) at the moment.

Millions of businesses face bankruptcy and with that comes the heartbreaking effect it has on employees and their families as they struggle to survive.

This also applies to the economies in affected Countries which have already suffered greatly with business down up to 95% and many businesses closed.

>>>>>>>

Right then, as you can see it's bad, really bad!

And this post doesn't even touch on the suffering of those directly affected and losing their loved ones, their livelihoods and at the same time, their freedom (quarantine/isolation), literally being cut off from the world.

Spare a thought for them as we all worry about ourselves.

WHAT'S MY POINT?

Ok, what's my point with all this other than to give you the most up to date, true and accurate (to my best ability based on the current data) information on this deadly virus.

My point is your best defence is YOU.

You're attitude, your preparation, your protection and your built in immune system is what will protect you from this threat and that is where your focus should lie.

And that is what I'll cover in the next post, this one is already long enough.

HOW DO YOU FEEL ABOUT THE CORONA VIRUS RIGHT NOW?

Let me know in the comments below and feel free to ask me any questions at all and I'll help you, help yourself.

Finally.

Please DON'T PANIC, don't let fear take a hold of you.

Turn that frown upside down cos stress and worry literally suppress your immune system, for real.

This virus is mild in 80% of cases and you have the power to help yourself and your loved ones prevent and protect against this deadly disease.

And I'm gonna tell you how ...... in the next article.

Together, we got this!

Please LIKE, COMMENT and SHARE as this info needs to provided to each and every one of you.

Coach 'I got ya back' Neil Kelliher – aka The Corona Reaper