Is the coronavirus pandemic a black swan event?

That description is less and less usable in emergency management because Victoria, other States and Territories and indeed across the world, have been having “unprecedented events’” for a while now. At some stage that description becomes null and void. 

The whole idea is to have systems, mechanisms, governance and processes that are scalable and can be used for any event. 

Interest in the management of the pandemic - and the outcomes of the Victorian Hotel Quarantine Inquiry, given the consequences related to the management of it - remains high for many. 

I wrote recently about leadership, responsibility and accountability within an emergency (see here Everyone wants to be in charge, but no one wants to be responsible ) referencing the second wave of this pandemic - black swan or not - and the independent but connected emergency management system already in place in Victoria including an accountability model under established governance.  

Technically, the existing system was designed to be a scalable model, and was built and refined after major bushfire, flood and public health emergencies and their subsequent royal commissions, reviews and inquiries. 

An opinion piece by a risk and governance advisor (and former Liberal MP) in this week’s Herald Sun outlined how the “three Cs” - command, control and co-ordination” appeared to be incredibly compromised during the management of the pandemic’s second wave, as existing plans and governance were not followed, or were changed without understanding the consequences. 

Command, Control, and Coordination – the “three C’s” – are traditional, based on the military, and have been embedded in emergency management legislation and arrangements for many years. They do provide structure, responsibility and accountability. 

However, emergency events - like this one - have become increasingly more complex and diverse, affecting broader communities. This resulted, soon after the 2009 Black Saturday fires and 2010-2011 floods, in the need for a more community-focused and comprehensive model for broader emergency management.

The “Six Cs” model was developed in 2014, using Command, Control, and Coordination as a base, adding and embedding Consequence, Communication, and Community Connection as integral concepts in mature and holistic management of emergencies.

The benefit of this model was the connection between the traditional, and the more modern and more encompassing way of operating across all emergencies, involving all agencies and partners, including community as partners.

This approach established “community" as central to everything we do in emergency management.

Looking from the outside at the management of the pandemic across Government, and despite the efforts of many good people at many levels, it goes without saying that a few of the 6C’s were conspicuously missing or should have been more prominent. 

Like many, I'll be interested in the findings of the inquiry in the hope that any changes that are required can be made, that Victoria’s emergency management arrangements and the system through which it operates, can be refined again if needed, further embedded or better understood. 

It won't make up for what has happened, because the consequences have been shocking, but I hope that community will again become central to all that is done within emergency management in a meaningful and demonstrated way.