Coronavirus Crisis in China

China is facing a major challenge in dealing with the fast developing Coronavirus situation. There are still many questions to be answered about the virus, including just how easily it spreads and how severe it is. Media reports have been all over the place, partly due to the lack of first hand information but also the inherently uncertain nature of the issue. This post is my attempt to share some information I gathered from different public reports. The intent is not to discuss the medical aspect of the virus because I am not knowledgeable enough but more on how the overall situation is unfolding in China.

First of all, here is an updated map of the cases at The Center for System Science and Engineering of Johns Hopkins University. As of this writing, there have been 7783 confirmed cases and 170 deaths worldwide. Although 99% of the cases are in China, cases have been confirmed or reported in 18 other country or region. The virus presents a major challenge for governments to limit the contagion.

Government Action

If there were some hesitations by the Wuhan local government in the beginning due to the uncertain nature of the virus, the actions by the central government since then have been very decisive. China’s unprecedented decision to quarantine a city bigger than New York has prompted travel curbs that have spread around the country and nearly as fast as the deadly virus they’re intended to stop. It is an unprecedented move and obviously a decision of this gravity was not made lightly. The government had to consider the implication on providing basic needs for the millions of citizens in the city, in addition to the rapidly rising medical needs.

In contrast to the SARS experience occurred 17 years ago, Chinese government has been much more transparent about information sharing. For people who lived through SARS, it is clear that information sharing is vastly improved as well as all the protocols, policies, and surveillance that is in place largely thanks to the learnings from SARS. At the same time, the history in transparency still fuels speculation, especially in some western media, that officials either failed to respond fast enough or are now reacting so firmly because the virus is much worse than it’s letting on.

One of the widely reported decisions by the government is the construction of two major special hospitals with over 1000 beds within a week in Wuhan, the center of the outbreak. As construction workers race against time to build the hospitals, tens of millions of people around the country are watching the construction through a live streaming broadcast (Leishenshan and Huoshenshan).

World Health Organization

World Health Organization (WHO) has just declared the outbreak a global health emergency on Thursday. At the announcement, WHO chief Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus applauded the Chinese government’s “speed” in which it "detected the outbreak, isolated the virus, sequenced the genome and shared it with WHO," and said China set "a new standard for outbreak response."

According to report, most of the criteria for declaring a global emergency had been met in the meeting last week, but was awaiting clear evidence of a sustained spread of the virus outside of China. The U.N. agency has been seeking to balance the need to ensure China continues to share information about the virus while also giving sound scientific advice to the international community on the risks.

Business

Growing List of global companies are cutting back on China business activities. As the virus has spread in China and beyond despite travel restrictions and other efforts to contain the disease, airlines are suspending some routes to China, mostly due to the significant reduction in demands. Restaurants and chains including Starbucks have shut many locations in China. Many businesses let employees work from home or extend the holiday. At the same time, many businesses, both domestic and international, are making monetary or medical supply donations to combat this virus.

There is still a debate on how effective they are, but medical masks or protective masks are in short supply. Manufacturing companies are gearing up for production around the clock. Government, many businesses, even some neighboring countries have been providing support in procuring protective masks for different cities to distribute.

Schools

Schools in many cities including Beijing have closed indefinitely by postponing spring semester classes, a perfect opportunity for online education providers to showcase what they have to offer. Alibaba's Youku announced on Monday that it will launch online classes for primary and secondary school students. State media reported that nearly 50 primary and secondary schools in Hubei province, where Wuhan is located, have joined the program. It is hard to say whether this event will have an impact on the acceleration of new education initiatives such as virtual education in the long term.

Scientists

Scientists think the new virus first became capable of infecting humans in early December. By December 31st, public health officials reported that they had patients with the then-unknown virus to the World Health Organization (WHO). Two weeks later, scientists in China had isolated and published the virus’s genetic sequence. That fast turnaround highlights the progress made in biotechnology and in public health response to novel viruses over the past few decades. By comparison, the SARS virus emerged in November 2002, but it took until April 2003 for scientists to get a full genetic sequence.

Entrepreneurs 

I saw a post this morning by Henry Li of LinkedIn China on the potential impact of this virus on China internet development by reflecting how the SARS indeed helped Chinese internet development. He pointed out that the 2003 SARS crisis proved to be a major boost for eCommerce in China. Having to stay home and wait out the outbreak, the convenience of shopping online earned the loyalty of new online shoppers. Taobao of Alibaba was literally launched in May 2003 in the midst of SARS. Whenever there is crisis, there is opportunity.

Doctors

Over six thousand medical doctors, nurses and other medical staffs from all over the country have volunteered to go to Wuhan to provide their helping hands in an increasingly strained condition with over four thousand confirmed and many more suspected cases. Among them is 84 years old national hero, Dr Zhong Nanshan, who played a pivotal role in the fight against SARS 18 years ago. Hats off to all the heroes!

Citizens

People are understandably worried as they should be, but they are generally not scared. Most people do have a relatively high level of trust to the government and believe that most that could be done is being done. It seem all my family, friends, and colleagues are taking it in their stride. 

Most streets in Beijing are quiet. While people are bored at home during the extended Chinese New Year holiday, WeChat provides a perfect platform for them to communicate and share information. People are sending messages constantly to give each other update. Many local governments or companies require workers or citizens to submit online forms on a regular basis to inform the government of travel and health conditions as preventive measures in case anyone has infection.

Summary

No individual city can ever be prepared to deal with the enormity of a crisis at this scale, but the ability of China as a country in dealing with emergency situations is unparalleled due to the ability for government to mobilize resources countrywide. The current coronavirus situation provides a perfect test of the Chinese government both in terms of its organizing capability and technical expertise. Chinese people overall are dealing with this crisis with solidarity, calmness and resilience. Just as they learned a hard lesson, at a heavy human toll, from the SARS over a decade ago, they will learn from this experience. If this situation is controlled soon and managed properly in the coming weeks, this whole episode can provide a rally point for people to come together, just as happened in the United States during the 911 crisis or hurricane Katrina. Obviously it is too early to tell how this will play out, but people will keep the fight.

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