Coronavirus Is big, but it is not 'The Big One'

A week ago yesterday, I was shocked awake by shaking, creaking, and groaning. Everything in the room began to rattle and I could feel massive tremors through my bedposts from a magnitude 5.7 earthquake.

It only lasted a few seconds, but it was the strongest earthquake I had ever been in, and Utah's biggest since 1992. Adrenaline coursed through my body and after the silence settled, I immediately checked on gas lines, water, loved ones, and structural damage. Luckily I was far enough away from the epicenter that I was mostly not affected. Aftershocks continued throughout the morning and gave me another scare in the afternoon when a 4.6 wave rocked me in my newly set up work-from-home office.

Since then, there was only one major aftershock on Sunday, and the chances that we will see something worse from the main shock are now practically zero. Here's the catch though: everyone in Utah knows that in the future, we are due for 'The Big One', a massive fault shift that happens every 1350 years and is coming due. Our recent Earthquake, was not the big one. Our earthquake was a reminder to prepare.

Coronavirus is in the same case. This is preparation time for a future 'Big One'.

Before I go on, I need to point out that I am in no way belittling the impact of the COVID-19 crisis around the world, nor do I wish to dismiss the suffering it is causing. The economic and social impacts are already self-evident and we have not seen the worst yet. There are untold numbers who are losing their jobs, their livelihoods, and even their lives during the current circumstances, so we need to take it very seriously.

What I am saying is that once the Coronavirus passes and we all come out of social distancing, the last thing we want is to think that that is the worst and now it is over. There will be much worse events in the future and just as with the big one in Utah, and there is not a better time to prepare than now.

A Simple Framework

A month ago at Rob McNealy and the TUSC team's Off Chain Conference, I presented a simple framework that I believe any family, team, or business can use to protect themselves now and in the future. This can be used across disaster domains, and provides a robust foundation for emergency specific responses. It is a distilled version of the NIST Risk Management Framework that the U.S. Government uses.

1. Identify 'capabilities'. Here I use the military definition which is 'the capacity or ability of the ADF to achieve a particular operational effect.' What do you need to do? Establish this first, before jumping to the actual threats. In this crisis, for example, you need specific medical capabilities--not just first aid, but anti-viral as well. One other item that we are neglecting too much during the current crisis is mental and emotional health effects from isolation. I already have friends who are battling increased risk of depression, and I am implementing routines to combat that risk with myself.
2. Identify what you need to exercise those capabilities. The military states that ‘capability’ in the defense context is the combined effect of multiple inputs. It is not merely the sum of those inputs, but the synergy that arises from the way those inputs are combined'. Identify your assets and establish a boundary of what you have and what you need to perform a capability. This is a complex, many-to-many relationship. In the COVID-19 crisis, assets are disinfectants, health cabinet supplies, hospital contact information (assets outside of boundary), etc.
3. Identify levels of graceful/elegant degradation. The DEFCON system is an excellent (if extreme) example of this principle. Model levels of breakdown of a capability. For example in this current crisis, a level 3 can be our current level of pandemic, a level 2 can be general sickness in your immediate circle or family, and level one can be hospitalization conditions. You will want triggers in place that help you know when a new level of response is necessary
4. Plan general strategies to operate and respond to those levels. Since you don't know what is coming, you want to build a general readiness response that can handle a variety of circumstances. You may need to deal with multiple incidents at once, and last week's earthquake was a great example of that. We want to be prepared for anything before we focus too much on one single scenario.
5. Plan specific recovery responses. For example in this crisis, you have probably already implemented social distancing and disinfecting strategies. For the hypothetical level 2 scenario I've mentioned, you can plan isolating and using health cabinet supplies. In case of a level 1 scenario, you can plan calling emergency aid, or the hospital.

Test, Measure, Adjust

As you may have guessed, these steps are a virtuous cycle. While you will want to follow them in order the first time, once you have some capabilities and assets established, you will jump between various steps and feed them into each other.

Now you use the crisis to test everything you have planned. If you are new to this kind of thinking, a super easy method to test, measure, and adjust is to keep a journal of what happens and review it for take-aways and future actions Here are some great questions to ask:

• What was I missing from the store that I did not have?
• What broke in my business continuity plans?
• What information did I lack?
• How did I respond to developing events?
• If another major event happened during this crisis? what would the effect be and how would I respond? (I added this to my list as of last week)
• What does my neighbor need and how can I put myself in a place to help them now and in the future? (probably the most important)

This is not the time to panic, it is the time to prepare

Relative past pandemics, the Coronavirus will not be a death count heavy hitter. It appears to spread quickly, but only certain segments have higher risk. We also have much better hygene and medical practices to deal with pandemics like this so on a per capita basis, COVID-19 will not do near the same damage as the Black Death, Smallpox, or Spanish Flu. For those who are affected by this, my heart sincerely goes out to the devastating situation you have been thrust into. But most of us will continue to lead our lives after the pandemic in generally the same manner as we did before.

So now is not the time to panic--but it is the time to prepare. Do you have plans in place for your business? For your family? Do you know how to respond? Are you tracking lessons learned? For most of us, this is not 'The Big One'. The big one is coming, and probably not in a way that you suspect, maybe not even as a virus or bacterium. So take this golden opportunity to begin your preparations today.

As Nassim Taleb stated, when you say that this crisis was bigger than anything you had measured before, that's what people said the last time something like this happened. It is also what people will say in the future again.