Coronavirus 2019 in South Africa: An update (11 March)

South Africa has just received the news that there are now 13 confirmed cases of COVID-19 – initially originating from a group of 10 travellers returning from a holiday in Italy, but now also affecting inbound travelers from other European countries, notably Germany and France, where high new daily infections are being reported. Our National Department of Health, supported by expert guidance from the National Institute for Communicable Diseases (NICD), has responded brilliantly so far. The NICD, with whom we liaise regularly, has displayed calm leadership as they continue to provide high-quality information and regular communication.

The Italian experience of COVID-19 is concerning for a variety of reasons. Daily, their new confirmed COVID-19 cases are increasing by 25%, with the rate of the outbreak doubling about every three days. Their experience seems to indicate that 20% of people are admitted to hospital and so far, by reported numbers, there is a 4% to 5% mortality rate. On the face of it, this is the most worrying data we have seen on the spread, illness and death rates of COVID-19 so far. Most likely, it’s because the affected area in Northern Italy has an older population. Most of COVID-19-related deaths in Italy have been among people who are older than 70 years. Early publications, yet to be fully substantiated, researched and confirmed, seem to have identified three potential different genetic variations of SARS-CoV-2, the Coronavirus that causes COVID-19. These different variants appear to be associated with differing risks and it is likely that the COVID-19 outbreak in Italy is predominantly from the most virulent of the three genetic variants. This is very early data, yet to be fully evidence based, and time will tell if this is valid.

Notwithstanding this experience in Italy, there are many reasons to remain reassured as our country joins forces to contain the outbreak. Firstly, the virus responsible for the COVID-19 outbreak was identified quickly – within weeks of the initial infections in China. This is quite different from previous viral outbreaks, when virus identification and formal containment measures took months to be initiated. Secondly, while there is no doubt about the highly infectious nature of the illness, the proportion of the population with confirmed COVID-19 is still extremely low. In the small group of most affected European countries (Italy, France, Germany and Switzerland), the infection rate is less than 1 person in every 10 000 of the population. Further, with the numbers of reported new cases in China and South Korea decreasing, the success rate of containment strategies appears remarkable and reassuring. China reported only 46 new infections yesterday, while South Korea reported approximately 110. The outbreak curve in these two countries, which were affected early on, has tapered dramatically, probably indicating that the outbreak is well under control there.

There is a very important lesson from these countries that have successfully contained COVID-19, which is crucial to emphasise now and going forward. Basic hygiene, like correct and regular hand washing and other preventive measures work well. In South Korea, specifically, the containment effort was strengthened by a large scale behavioral nudge for social distancing (avoiding large gatherings, not touching others and keeping a respectful distance). This avoidance of the habitual handshakes and hugs and caution around close contact can be respectfully achieved. Although culturally foreign to some of us, it seems important at this time.

At Discovery, we continue to be highly active across a wide range of definitive actions, and are doing as much as possible to support our country’s readiness, together with our partners and colleagues in both the private and public healthcare sectors. We have received our first few COVID-19 claims for care, and are happy to be able to support the financial needs of these medical scheme members through this unusual crisis. Our Information hub on the Discovery website at www.discovery.co.za/corporate/coronavirus-covid19-disease has experienced an unprecedented number of hits. We are delighted to be providing factual, dynamic updates as more information emerges. I am in personal contact with business leaders of large organisations across our country, to support a calm and informed corporate response. Employee safety is critical. 

That said, I remain concerned by the severe global economic impact of the virus, which we are all witnessing. For small and medium businesses, particularly those in the hospitality, events and travel sectors, this could have  severe consequences, with many cancellations of events. I read with fascination and admiration, of the suspension of mortgage repayments in Italy by some of the large banks, as a reprieve to the affected Northern Italian population of some 17 million, currently in home quarantine for their own protection. We must all work together to ensure calm, to be grounded in the reality of the facts of the small number of actual infections, and to try to sustain productivity while ensuring we protect our employees. I call on you to join me in the containment of COVID-19, with this in mind.