The Corona Virus - A Perspective

First of all, I should clearly state that every single death for whatever reason matters. It is utterly tragic if any woman, man or child contracts a disease and falls into a serious, life-threatening condition that eventually leads to death. Modern medicine is trying its best to keep that from happening, but sometimes even the most advanced treatments and the most potent pharmaceuticals have to fail. Pushing the limits of medical sciences further, global average life expectancy has increased significantly since pre-modern times. However, there is still a dramatic difference between rich and poorer countries.

The corona virus started as a little news item from China and now has become a global, sensational topic about a pandemic disease - within less than three months. It has received a lot of media attention. Online statistics report up to the minute the number of infected people and the death toll. Right now: ~78,000 infected and ~2,400 deaths. No doubt, any death tolls are horrific numbers, but this is still less than the number of children under 5 dying of Malaria in Africa every week. And: do we trust these corona virus numbers? Numbers of infected people reflect positive tests for the virus, with the actual number of untested infections estimated to be a factor of 20 or more higher.

Cruise ships with corona virus cases are placed into quarantine and passengers have to undergo examinations, wait in the confined space of a ship, possibly with others who are more seriously infected. Infected patients may more easily infect healthy passengers - such measures defy common sense. And then, cruise chip passengers testing positive for the corona virus are flown back home in a plane with uninfected passengers - of course, against the recommendation of the CDC and common sense. Placing infected and uninfected passengers into a small, confined space can only be expected to further spread any disease.

Media publish a new article about virtually any single death due to the corona virus. Just this morning, there was an Italian man reported to have died. He was 78. Headlines: first European dies of corona virus. That couple off the Japanese cruise ship who died a few days ago was over 80. Early reports from Wuhan indicated patients were by majority over 60, some hospitalized with pulmonary or coronary preconditions. Reading such reports, it seems to me many of these unfortunate victims of corona virus infections are people who would be susceptible to practically any aggressive virus infection out there, particulary those affecting the respiratory system. The mortality rate of SARS-CoV-2 has a clear age bias with the good news that according to the Chinese CDC, it is less than 0.3% for patients under 50, and even lower if you discount other comorbid conditions and include cases outside China as well. These rates are deaths per confirmed cases, so if you take the much higher, true number of infected (but not tested) people into account, lethality rates become even lower. Depending on which statistics you want to believe, that's in the range of (unvaccinated) Measels, Mumps or Malaria - and it is by far giving more hope than the reported case fatality rate of 11% of SARS.

According to the WHO, there were 228 million cases of Malaria worldwide, 400,000 deaths, the majority of which are children under 5. The CDC in the USA expects 21-41 million cases of flu in the current season, knowing by far not all cases will be reported and registered. They expect 16,000-41,000 deaths in this season in the USA alone. We don't hear hourly updates on flu or Malaria deaths. Where are Dengue and yellow fever? What about lung cancer from smoking with over 2 million deaths per year worldwide?

Corona viruses are actually widely spread and as you are reading this article, you may even suffer from an infection with one of the many strains that only cause a common cold or mild respiratory infection. Very good chances are, if your immune system is in proper condition, you will easily survive and maybe not even notice what you had contracted. You will not appear in any statistics. More aggressive variants like the SARS-CoV or now the SARS-CoV-2 are more dangerous, especially if they spread as easily as they do and survive on surfaces for many days. The virus may even be transmitted by apparently healthy people without symptoms.

SARS-CoV-2 is serious and must be fought, but looking at the actual risks, I cannot understand the general media panic and apocalyptic urgency conveyed to the public - especially in relation to what we undertake against other commonly dangerous diseases like the flu in its varying forms, leading to major numbers of fatalities every year. Estimates for global flu deaths range from annual 250,000 cases well beyond 600,000. The SARS-CoV-2 attention seems to be quite disproportionate and driven by plenty of hype.

Ignoring for a while that the Chinese government certainly has a heightened interest in much publicity for their supposedly competent handling of this potential pandemic, and that the pharma industry certainly loves to see new revenue channels opening as the public is getting more sensitive to such outbreaks, I do believe we should seriously acknowledge the inherent dangers of any such aggressive infection, especially when it has the ability to spread globally, but definitely avoid global panic and sensationalism, calmly take adequate precautions, and not stigmatize or demonize entire cities, nations or continents for outbreaks. One such elementary precaution is hygiene. Washing hands regularily and not touching mouth, nose and eyes with your hands already takes care of many germs around you and the risk of smear infections. Basic hand hygiene is not commonly practiced in many countries - take China for an example.

Meeting business partners from China will most likely not kill you. Even if you assume a million of infected people, that is a tiny fraction of the Chinese population. Plus, there are many electronic forms of communication that are used heavily already - meetings in person may not even be necessary. Nevertheless, as I increasingly hear from friends and colleagues, many European and US companies now generally cancel meetings with Asian businesses due to precautions or uncertainties. This is devastating for many smaller Chinese companies and threatens their survival in a world of trade wars and a slowing-down Chinese economy.

While some may argue the Mobile World Congress (MWC) has grown into an expensive and hypertrophic institution over the years, does it really make sense to cancel MWC 2020 over corona virus fears? Do we really need an MWC? Apparently, the world can do without CeBIT.

Are the Chinese measures of quarantining entire cities really adequate and lead to results - other than further weakening the already struggling economy? Isolation instead of real help - that reminds me of historical leper colonies. Far-fetched? Well, Australia quite crazily had the same association. Quarantine is effective to separate infected individuals from the healthy population, but hardly for indiscriminate city lock-downs. Such will only help thoroughly spread the infection among all those quarantined.

So, why am I writing this article? I hope the media will eventually abandon sensational, panic-stricken reports and return to objective facts creating awareness and helping people globally to take effective precautions against a variety of virus diseases. I hope governments will avoid actionism and coordinate to rationally implement effective measures against pandemics. I hope my friends and colleagues all over the globe will continue to work with Asian, particularly Chinese partners because right now, people in China are most likely even more scared about what is happening than we are in "safe" European countries or the USA. For smaller businesses in China, the drastic effects of the corona virus epidemic and the accompanying measures are turning into a real existential threat.

We trust the pharamazeutical industry to find vaccines and treatments against serious virus infections at a faster and faster pace.

In the meantime, there should be no time for panic. Take every virus seriously, take general precautions, but don't fall for sensationalism and media hype.